Where heavy rain could be significant Tuesday in Minnesota

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00:00Well, it's going to be a hot start to the week. Today and tomorrow, highs near 90 in southern

00:03Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, but storms will be making their way across the state today

00:07into tomorrow, followed by some much cooler air Wednesday and Thursday.

00:21Of course, air quality was a big theme over the weekend. Saturday for southern Minnesota,

00:24statewide, it was bad, but the unhealthy air now, mostly in northern Minnesota,

00:29still some pockets, though, in southern Minnesota. Twin Cities is kind of a mix. We're on the edge

00:33of the orange, which is unhealthy for sensitive groups, and yellow, moderate air quality. This is

00:37a downtown Minneapolis sensor, mostly in the moderate, but you can see that weekend air quality,

00:42not good. It was unhealthy for everybody Saturday. You could smell it Saturday morning, got out there

00:46and like a campfire out there. Highs today are going to be pretty warm, upper 80s to near 90 in

00:52southern Minnesota, but notice the difference. Much cooler air to the north, 70s there. This is a slow

00:56moving cool front that'll be producing our weather here over the next couple of days. We're kind of

01:00stuck in between the really humid air to the south, drier, cooler air coming in from the north,

01:04and then in between. Muggy still in the 60s, but not the oppressive humidity, but you don't need that

01:09to produce showers and storms. We've got a cool front coming through across the state. That combined

01:14with the jet stream moving in, several different upper level disturbances are going to produce some

01:18rounds of rain and storms here that could really add up here. It's going to be very difficult to

01:22pinpoint where exactly the heaviest rain develops, but really anywhere in central and northern

01:27Minnesota here over the next couple of days. Most of the showers stay northwestern Minnesota near

01:30that front, but as it slowly moves south tonight, more storms develop for northern Minnesota, and

01:35then that focus turns more to central and northern Minnesota during the day tomorrow. Another hot one

01:39for us in the south, but tomorrow night into Wednesday, we'll see our chance of showers and storms

01:44moving to the picture here, and that's going to keep it kind of cool Wednesday too. We're talking about

01:48some really cool air for mid-July to see highs in the 60s and 70s, but more rain comes in Wednesday.

01:55Upper level disturbance taking advantage of that frontal boundary that'll still be moving through.

02:00Not a whole lot of risk of severe weather. Marginal risk mostly tonight for those storms that redevelop

02:04after midnight. The primary concern would be some isolated large hail, maybe some high wind gusts,

02:09and then tomorrow really across central and southern Minnesota, though into South Dakota and Nebraska might

02:14see some more substantial severe weather with the potential for some higher wind gusts. But the bigger

02:18thing we're looking at is the possibility of excessive rainfall, those several inch rainfall amounts

02:23possible here along the front. It's drawn almost perfectly along that front for tomorrow, so primarily

02:29central and northern Minnesota. This is a model average producing one to two inches across central

02:34Minnesota, but you got to look at kind of the individual models to get hints of what we could potentially see

02:40with some of those locally higher mounts. This is the high-resolution rapid refresh model. And again,

02:44don't pay attention to exactly where it is, but it is producing a half-foot of rain in some pockets,

02:49potentially here in central Minnesota. So that's the thing we're going to have to watch for tomorrow

02:53into tomorrow night. But again, ahead of it, that front, another hot day for southern Minnesota

02:57tomorrow back in the 90s, but 70s only to the north. Quite the contrast. But we get in on that

03:02Wednesday. Look at these highs Wednesday. Because of the clouds and showers, just low to mid-70s south,

03:07still near 80 along the Minnesota-Iowa border, but 60s only for much of northern Minnesota.

03:13Mid-July should be the hottest time of the year. Been an odd summer. Temperatures are averaging,

03:18though, above normal still, especially with these next couple of days. July was already running above

03:22normal. 91 today, 91 tomorrow, a very warm night tonight. But dry for the Twin Cities today and tonight,

03:28and most of tomorrow, it's by the evening and maybe not even until tomorrow night that we'll see showers

03:34and storms make their way farther south into what looks like a gloomy, dreary Wednesday.

03:38Clouds decrease Thursday. Still on the cooler side. And then nice weekend shaping up for the

03:43most part. Looks like the next disturbance will come in mainly late Friday, Friday night,

03:47bringing some showers and hopefully moving out of here Saturday. Still an isolated chance,

03:52but generally getting better and closer to normal temperatures again by the weekend.

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