00:00Joe, thanks again for joining us this morning.
00:02We did want to take a look back again and see what you were talking about last week at this time.
00:06Okay.
00:08Really quick, Joe, homegrown development.
00:11This is where we're going to watch next week.
00:15We're going to watch it.
00:16It's an area where the upper levels are relatively cool often.
00:20If there's any little upper level load that tries to develop,
00:23if you can get far enough away from land, something could spin up.
00:26So this is the area we're watching during this time period in early July.
00:30Spot on, as always.
00:32And we have up that risk to a high risk now.
00:35So we're still keeping an eye on the tropics.
00:38But, Joe, there's a couple other things we've got to watch into the upcoming week.
00:41Yeah, I think the tropics outside of that are going to be pretty quiet, Melissa, in the week ahead.
00:45But the other big stories for next week, the heat and humidity,
00:48that's going to be returning to the mid-Atlantic states and southern New England to some degree.
00:52It's not going to be as bad as what we saw a couple of weeks ago
00:55when temperatures were in the upper 90s to 100 or better with that gruesome humidity.
00:59The humidity will be high, but the heat won't be so bad.
01:02Rounds of showers and thunderstorms could mean some severe weather.
01:04I'm more worried about flooding from areas of the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley
01:08and perhaps even late next week in the mid-Atlantic and northeast.
01:11The heat will be building in the west, and it's going to get hot and dry there.
01:14The reason for that is very simple.
01:15You look at the pattern for next week,
01:17there's going to be a big area of high-pressure building over the Four Corners region,
01:21pushing the jet stream northward, and as it does, hot and dry weather.
01:24Now, any disturbances that kind of skirt through the Pacific Northwest
01:27may touch off some dry thunderstorms, which would escalate the fire concern.
01:31So that's something we'll keep an eye on.
01:33Any monsoonal moisture trying to come up in here around the periphery of this ridge,
01:36again, could be the same thing, dry thunderstorms.
01:38But these won't be dry.
01:40These disturbances, when they come over the top of the ridge,
01:42will come down through the Dakotas and Minnesota,
01:44and they'll spark showers and thunderstorms.
01:46Some severe weather is on the table.
01:48I think the bigger concern overall would be that of repeated rounds of thunderstorms
01:52with flooding downpours, and that should spread southward down into the Mississippi Valley
01:56and eventually the Tennessee Valley.
01:58The question will be, does it cut into this heat and humidity late next week?
02:01And the reason why I'm concerned about that is a series of fronts
02:04that will be coming through this particular northwest flow.
02:08One of them will come into the mid-Atlantic states and northeast Monday night and Tuesday,
02:12and that's going to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of it,
02:15probably upper 80s and low 90s, very humid conditions across the mid-Atlantic and northeast,
02:20some of that with that tropical moisture coming up from the south.
02:23A second front will come through later in the week,
02:25and that may slow down enough that it allows the shower and thunderstorm activity
02:29to spread northeastward through the mid-Atlantic into New England.
02:32So there you see it, a flood risk from the Midwest to the Appalachians,
02:36heat relief from the lakes to northern New England,
02:37but very tropical across the mid-south to the mid-Atlantic for much of next week.
02:42And you're saying very tropical, but the tropics, you mentioned, not so active.
02:47Why are we talking about it being relatively quiet?
02:49Let's discount what's happening off the southeast coast for the next couple of days.
02:53That's an enclosed situation. We talked about that last week.
02:55That'll go away after Monday.
02:57But the rest of the tropical region, the main development region,
03:00water temperatures in here remain a little below historical averages.
03:03There's a lot of Saharan dust.
03:05That dry air is something that chokes the development of tropical waves
03:08as they come across the Atlantic, and it's early in the Cape Verde season anyway.
03:12And then as you go across the rest of the basin, there's strong upper-level wind shear.
03:16You pull all of that into a pot, and it says most of the tropics are going to be quiet into mid-July.
03:22Something I think a lot of folks will be happy about.
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