- 7 months ago
In this episode of News Today, the focus is on the Election Commission's new directive in Bihar, requiring voters who joined the electoral rolls post-2003 to prove their citizenship and the latest findings of the CVoter survey about the mood of the voters ahead of assembly elections in the state.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your primetime destination news,
00:06newsmakers, talking points Thursday night. This is where you'll get all the big stories.
00:11Our big talking point tonight, the election commission has asked Bihar's voters to prove
00:15their citizenship. That's right, battleground Bihar, we have a special tracker. If elections
00:23are held today, who has the edge? That's the question that we're going to raise. Also India's
00:28China Park Security Challenge, the Chinpak Challenge. We'll tell you more what happened
00:35at the Shanghai Corporation meeting in China. But first, as always, it's time for the Nine
00:42Headlines at Nine. Group captain Shubhanshu Shukla is the first Indian to dock at the International
00:50Space Station. 14-day space stay and 60 experiments next for the X4 crew.
00:58India refuses to sign the SCO agreement at the Shanghai Corporation meet because there
01:05is no mention of the Pahlkam terror attack. Joint statement that mentioned Balochistan in
01:12a veiled attempt to accuse India of causing unrest as China and Pakistan come together.
01:17Black box of Air India flight that crashed in Ahmedabad being decoded in India. Data extraction
01:25begins. India may get some answers to what caused the fatal crash.
01:33Four killed in the Himachal monsoon mayhem. Kulu Valley hit by four cloudbursts in 24 hours.
01:40Several missing as dams discharges swell rivers.
01:47Donald Trump hits out at Zoran Mamdani who won the New York City's Democratic mayoral primary.
01:53U.S. President calls Mamdani a 100% communist and a lunatic.
01:58In India, BJP and Congress MPs hit out at Mamdani's anti-India stand.
02:03New U.S. visa diktat kicks in. Full information on social media footprint now necessary for all
02:16applicants must reveal usernames and handles used in five years. Non-compliance will lead
02:22to visa rejection and blacklisting.
02:29In first appearance since the U.S. strike, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei says Trump ordered
02:34strikes were to force surrender. Vow's big revenge. U.S. presents photos of nuke strikes
02:39to counter the no damage claim.
02:42Zingar Dilji Dosanj breaks silence on promoting his film starring Pakistani actor Hanya Amir says
02:52film was made before the Pahlkam attack. Mika Singh and Guru Randhava asked Dilji to put India first.
03:02Tigress and four cubs are found dead in a Karnataka sanctuary. Deliberate poisoning attempt
03:07suspected forest minister orders a probe.
03:09But let's get you the breaking news at this hour. The Election Commission's door-to-door drive
03:26to review voter list is now taking another turn. A special intensive revision of Bihar voter list
03:34has been put underway which has led to a major controversy because voters who joined after 2003
03:42or were on the electoral roads post-2003 will now be asked to prove their citizenship.
03:48Sources saying this pattern will be used for the next round of assembly elections.
03:52Bihar in November and then next year in Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry.
03:57EC sources are saying that this drive will cover the entire country.
04:01But opposition leaders, Mamata Banerjee, Deja Svi Yadav, several questions are being raised
04:07by them claiming, is this being used to target citizens who are they claim are their voters?
04:13Will the EC's decision to ask voters to prove their citizenship now, including a host of certificates,
04:21be actually a form of the NRC or the National Register of Citizens?
04:26Should every voter now be asked to prove their citizenship afresh?
04:32Aishwarya Paliwal, who tracks the Election Commission, is now joining me.
04:36Aishwarya, there is already some concern being expressed by political parties on this decision
04:41of the Election Commission.
04:43Why has the Election Commission decided to do it now?
04:46Well, Rajdeep, one thing the Election Commission has been saying is that whenever any election
04:55happens, then you come to us and say that these number of people were deleted, these number
04:59of people were added.
05:00Now, when we are giving people enough time that you can give us, and there is a list of
05:0511 documents.
05:06Either of them, the person can come out and they are saying that in Bihar, the numbers are
05:105 crore people who have been enrolled till 2003.
05:13So, they are saying that also is a substantial number.
05:16After that, all those who want to get added, they only have to give certain documents.
05:20What's the problem in giving documents?
05:22Earlier, the opposition parties used to say, and this is what the Election Commission at
05:25the moment is saying, that names are added, names are deleted, and right at the polling
05:28station, we have this huge ruckus which is taking place.
05:31In order to avoid that, a door-to-door campaign has now been started by the Election Commission
05:35to make sure that all those people who are rightfully staying in that place have the right
05:39to vote.
05:40And you rightly pointed out, Rajdeep, this is just the big thing.
05:42And we will see these kind of exercises, the door-to-door verification taking place across
05:46the length and breadth of country in coming months.
05:49I want to understand, 2003 is a cut-off date which means if you are, if you became a voter
05:56on the electoral roll in 2003 and after, you will have to supply these documents.
06:02Is that what the Election Commission is saying?
06:04If I was on the electoral rolls before 2003, no problem.
06:08Post-2003, if I am on the electoral rolls, I have to supply a list of documents like which
06:14documents?
06:14Passport, birth certificate, the place where I stay, I can also give my voter ID card, all
06:25those things.
06:26The list of the 11 documents that Election Commission has given, any of those documents
06:29can be given out in Bihar.
06:31The cut-off date is 2003 and some of the states, the cut-off date is 2004.
06:36So, if the role that the BLO has, if your name is in the list which he has before 2003,
06:41then you do not need to give out any of these details.
06:44But yes, if your name is after 2003, then you will have to provide any of these documents,
06:49birth certificate, NRC place, passport, the voter ID card, all any of these documents you
06:55can give and if the officer is satisfied with the documents that you are giving.
07:00So, the cut-off date in the state of Bihar, 2003.
07:02But in some of the states, it has been changed to 2004.
07:06And this will be primarily aimed, Aishwarya, to target what the Election Commission is saying,
07:10fake voters or the so-called illegal immigrants in states like Bihar and Bengal?
07:19Fake voters.
07:20The Election Commission believes that there are many people who actually do not stay there
07:24but only come at the time of voting and this is something which even the opposition has been raising
07:28that some of the people which they claim are to be fake voters,
07:31the commission said the opposition time and again has been speaking about fake voters.
07:35The only reason why this is being done is to make sure and that's the reason why it's being done door to door
07:39to make sure that if there are any fake voters, one person cannot vote at two places
07:43and the revision will take place almost every three months.
07:46So, a revision will take place not just in certain states but across the country.
07:49The Election Commission now saying that this is exactly what the opposition were asking for.
07:52Now, we have kicked it in and now the opposition again is saying that this will actually target their voters.
07:58Well, we've seen that Mamata Banerjee among others raising it but remember Rahul Gandhi
08:03is the one leader who raised the issue of electoral rolls in the context of Maharashtra.
08:07So, clearly Rahul Gandhi, it will be interesting to see what his response is to the Election Commission
08:12now doing door to door verifications to decide whether there are any,
08:17to find out whether there are any fake voters in electoral lists.
08:21We'll keep track of that story.
08:23Bihar is the flavour of the moment because in five months from now,
08:26Bihar will be voting in what many believe is going to be the,
08:31what is the last big battle of 2025.
08:34Who has the edge in Bihar, the next poll-bound state?
08:38Today, we bring you the latest findings of the sea voter election tracker.
08:43And let me give you some of the numbers.
08:45Bihar's preferred chief minister, Tejasvi Yadav of the RJD,
08:51as per the sea voter election tracker, continues to lead in public perception.
08:57His ratings though have declined from the previous tracker in February at 40.6 to now 34.6 in June.
09:05So, 34.6% in June preferred him as the chief minister candidate as opposed to 40 earlier.
09:11Chief minister Nitish Kumar is way behind, fluctuating between 15.4 and 18.4.
09:18So, purely in leadership, Tejasvi Yadav is almost twice where Nitish Kumar is.
09:22Here is the X factor.
09:24Prashant Kishore of the Jan Suraj party steadily gaining ground,
09:28rising from 14.9% in February, now up to 18.2% in June.
09:35So, Prashant Kishore rises, Tejasvi's graph goes down.
09:38Remember, Prashant Kishore is also trying to capture an anti-Nitish vote.
09:43Chirak Paswan of Lok Jan Shakti, who is likely to contest the Bihar elections,
09:48he peaked at about 10.6% in May, he's around 9.9% in June.
09:53So, roughly around where his party, the Lok Jan Shakti also posed.
09:58BJP Samrat Chaudhary, the deputy chief minister,
10:01has seen his ratings swing from 8.2 in February to a low of 6.6.
10:06They've risen again to 9.6.
10:07So, you can add his, in a sense, his voters to that of Nitish,
10:12and then the contest in terms of chief ministerial stakes,
10:15opposition or government becomes that much closer.
10:18The Bihar government's performance, very much satisfied with the government,
10:23as per the tracker, has increased, rising from 31.6% in February to 34.8% in June.
10:31But that still means that there is a substantial anti-incumbency,
10:36because some satisfied to some extent have dipped,
10:39falling from 32.8% in April to 27.8%.
10:43But dissatisfaction is high and consistent.
10:47Over 35% in June also said they are not at all satisfied.
10:51So, when I look at those two numbers clearly, there is a high level of dissatisfaction.
10:57And clearly, the Bihar government is facing, after so many years in power and different times,
11:03Nitish Kumar, an element of anti-incumbency.
11:06Around 2-3% remained undecided.
11:09Public satisfaction with Nitish Kumar's government.
11:13In February, 31.3% said they were very much satisfied.
11:17That number rose gradually to 34.4% in June.
11:20Those satisfights, to some extent, are stable, hovering around 25 to 27%.
11:26Dissatisfaction is around 39.3% in February, now to 38.9%.
11:32Percentage of people who said they couldn't say, had no view on the government, around 1.5%.
11:39What does this mean as the battle for Bihar begins?
11:42Yashwan Deshmukh, the sophologist from SeaVoter, who's done the poll, joins us.
11:46Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist, who's also been polling, joins me.
11:50Syed Zafar Islam, the BJP senior spokesperson, joins me.
11:54Anshul Abhijit, the Congress spokesperson, also from Bihar, contested from Patna, joins me.
12:00First to you, Yashwan, what's your big takeaway from the latest tracker?
12:06Well, Razdeep, the more things change in Bihar, the more they remain the same in a way.
12:11That we know that Bihar is highly polarized, number one.
12:15Number two, it looks like 35% on each side, they seem to be locked.
12:21But it's the middle, around 30%, which is going to call the shot.
12:26But what remains to be seen, Razdeep, is that I was expecting when we started this tracker way back,
12:32that as and when we come closer to the polling dates, I was expecting Tejasvi and RJD's number to grow up,
12:40you know, in filling up the vacuum of being the principal opposition.
12:45It seems like he is unable to grow.
12:48I mean, he is number one in terms of among all the leaders, no doubt about that.
12:53But it seems to be a kind of a glass ceiling that they are touching of a sort,
12:57where 35% is the combination.
13:00I would have expected him to cross 40, 45, touch even 45% in that vacuum.
13:05But, I mean, the joker of the pack or whatever, whichever way you say,
13:10Prashant Kishore coming out of the book kind of thing,
13:14I don't know whether he would be able to convert these emotions, these sentiments into votes and votes into seats.
13:20But at this point of time, he has gained a significant traction and traction is not going down.
13:26On the other hand, if you just add Chirats and Samrat Chaudhary's number,
13:31as you just mentioned in your opening remark to the Nitish Kumar number,
13:35you can very well see that it's about 40% NDA block and 35% UPA block,
13:40which seems to be very consistent.
13:42So, Bihar, at the end of the day, it remains the arithmetic game.
13:47I know, I take your point.
13:50Let's explore one of those factors, Amitabh Tiwari, which is the Prashant Kishore factor,
13:54which is interesting because he's a new player.
13:57You can call him a joker in the pack.
13:58You can call him an X factor.
14:01He's been campaigning vigorously now for a year.
14:04His ratings are reasonably good.
14:05We don't know whether, as Yashwant rightly put, that this will translate into votes for him.
14:10But when a leader is getting about 18.2% votes,
14:13who choose Prashant Kishore as a preferred chief minister candidate,
14:17clearly he's getting a little bit more traction than many thought he would so close to the election.
14:25See, historically, Bihar always has had others bagging 20 to 25% vote share.
14:32Even in 2020 election, the two Gadbandans bagged on a combined basis 74% vote share.
14:40Of course, even if you add Chirag Paswan's party, it's like 79%.
14:44So, now it seems that Prashant Kishore is able to consolidate that third front or the other vote,
14:52because that is split into many parties, AIM, AIMIM, Samajwadi party,
14:57Hojan Samaj party, independents, RLSP, etc.
15:00It seems that he is consolidating that vote.
15:02Now, as Sir has said, whether he will be able to translate this popularity or top of the mind recall
15:11of a CA preference into seeds or not remains to be seen.
15:15Because when we ask this question, it is, of course, linked to events.
15:19He is doing a lot of yatras and that also seems to pitch him up at the top versus Tejasvi.
15:27Because these are the two principal challengers.
15:30But is he in your view taking Tejasvi's votes, the opposition's votes away or the government's vote?
15:38That's the big question. Whose votes is he primarily taking in your view?
15:42See, he is consolidating others' votes.
15:45But as Yashwanji also says very frequently, it's sort of an opportunity lost for Tejasvi.
15:52Because what we are seeing is that Nitish popularity is declining from 37-38% in 2020 to 17%.
16:02But that is not being pocketed by Tejasvi. It is going either to Prashant Kishore,
16:08some portion of it, or to other leaders of NDA like Samrat Chaudhary and Chirag Paswan.
16:14See, this question also needs to be followed up with a question as to how many people are actually voting
16:21on the name of chief minister. Because that number is not a significantly higher number.
16:28In Lok Sabha election, only 10% of the people according to CSDS voted in the name of the prime ministerial face.
16:36So this is going to be a highly localized election compared to the Lok Sabha election.
16:41So this may not fit into votes.
16:44Okay, can I bring in Syed Zafar Islam. Syed Zafar Islam, when you look at these numbers,
16:49what it suggests is the arithmetic of your alliance is your strength.
16:53When I add all these numbers, you'll still remain much stronger, it seems,
16:57than the so-called India alliance that exists. But you have a leadership question.
17:02Nitish Kumar's popularity and that of his government have dipped substantially, particularly his personal
17:08popularity. Does he still remain your face? Do you go into this election with Nitish Kumar as your
17:13face, Mr. Syed Zafar Islam, given his low numbers?
17:18Radhi, first of all, let me very candidly tell you that the dynamics in Bihar is very different than
17:24what is reflecting in the arithmetic here. I am in Bihar at the moment. I have been in Bihar.
17:30Yesterday also in Sasaram, I was there in the dairy and other places I was there.
17:34Let me very candidly say that there is absolutely no competition as far as India is concerned.
17:41People have reposed confidence time and again in Nitish Kumar and they will continue to show
17:46the same kind of confidence in Nitish D and India. Having said that, whatever number
17:51you are showing right now on your screen, that suggests that 65 to 70 percent, more than two-thirds,
17:59people are satisfied, very much satisfied, to that extent satisfied, but they do not have any problem
18:06with India. That only suggests that if your numbers suggesting two-thirds or more than two-thirds
18:13are satisfied, but actually in reality, we will break all the record this time.
18:18No, no, but is Nitish still your face? You know, Syed Zafar Islam, my question was,
18:23is Nitish Kumar still your face? These are low numbers for any sitting chief minister. Yes,
18:28he's been chief minister several years, but there seems to be an element of fatigue with Nitish Kumar
18:32as well. Is the BJP registering that or not? Well, Nitish Kumar continues to be an icon in Bihar.
18:40He is the crowd puller. He has, he controls a chunk of vote and people definitely have confidence in him.
18:47We do have confidence in him. He is our face, will continue to be our face of NDA.
18:52Okay. Anshul Abhaji, your response to what you've just been hearing so far, because what this seems to me
19:00is that the arithmetic game and election at the end of the day are about arithmetic. Just the size of the
19:05coalition that the NDA has put together, Chirag Paswan, BJP, Nitish Kumar, give them a wider caste coalition
19:12in comparison to what you have. So, it is in that sense, even with these numbers,
19:18Dejasvi may be number one in chief minister's take, but overall, it is advantage NDA.
19:25No, it's not. I mean, you know, Rajthi, I'm less interested in this competitive clash of
19:31personalities and more in ideology and the issues at hand, which the Congress Party and the Mahagat
19:38Bandhan has been more concerned with, beginning with the Bharat Joro Nyayatra. Essentially,
19:43we focused on two things, development and social justice. The Bharat Joro Nyayatra went through
19:49regions of East Bihar and then later on entered Orangabad, Dehri, Sasaram, Mohania, where my counterpart
19:57is at the moment and he would have known the effect it had even in the general elections at that time
20:02and the effect it still has. We focused on social justice and by no means does social justice
20:08mean caste politics. It means the representation. It means actually giving people the equitable
20:16distribution of resources, empowerment and that kind of thing. I mean, Bihar hasтАж
20:21Those are all fine words, Anshul Avjit, but as we saw, even in the Lok Sabha election, they did not
20:28translate into votes on the ground. On the ground, the sheer size of the NDA's coalition could well
20:34overwhelm you. No, it did. Actually, that was the defining narrative. You look at the regions where
20:40this, the plank of social justice attraction. We won in East Bihar and then in the region of Shahabad,
20:49which is completely different from the rest. And therefore, I think that it's right. It is going
20:52to be a localized election where Shahabad and other regions act very differently from each other with
20:58the CPIML coming in as well. The Mahagadbandhan is not just one party of RJD. It's got the Congress
21:04Party. It's got its plank of social justice and development, which the BJP hasn't focused on.
21:11And let me just talk about what the prime minister here is the big factor. The prime minister immediately
21:16went from Jeddah to Madhubani because he suddenly had Pahlgaon and he had to react to that. And in his
21:22speech a month back in Bikram Ganj, it took him about half an hour to come to actual issues of
21:27development. The first half an hour was actually related to Pahlgaon, where you found emotive
21:32metaphors of patriotism and sindoor and all to cut across to people because you really haven't done
21:37anything as far as development. Okay, that's an interesting point. Whether the Bihar election will be
21:42localized or whether they will once again be fought on brand Modi, as the BJP likes to call it.
21:49Our election tracker done by Sea Voter also looks at that. The performance of Prime Minister Modi,
21:55percentage of people very much satisfied has increased from 44.5 percent in February to 50.6
22:03percent in June. So the prime minister's popularity is high. Remember, this is post-Operation sindoor.
22:07Those satisfied to some extent saw a slight decline coming down to 22.1 percent in June.
22:14Not at all satisfied, fairly stable around 26 to 29 percent. Those who said they couldn't,
22:20had no opinion was just 0.3. Now contrast that on the other side with Rahul Gandhi.
22:26Where does Rahul Gandhi stand in these popularity stakes? February, 34.4 percent said they were very much
22:33satisfied. But that figure dipped to about 30.9 percent, which is roughly the vote of the Mahagadbandan.
22:40Satisfied to some extent, saw a rise in April and May, but settled at 19.8 percent. People not at all
22:46satisfied, increased to 37.2. Those who couldn't say is 12.12 percent.
22:51Yashwat Deshmukh, in a state poll, will these national leaders and their popularity make a difference?
22:56Or is this, as is being suggested by some of the guests, going to be a highly localized election,
23:02fought on local caste combinations in particular? It will be a localized election. Let's not make any
23:09mistake about it. But as we say that it's a cumulative decision always, you know, Radeep. I mean,
23:15things add up in the decision-making process of the people. And BJP, by and large, has got benefited a
23:23lot by the goodwill, which the Prime Minister enjoys among not just Bihar, but in many states,
23:31we know. But at the end of the day, we also know that as and where it is required, BJP has made the
23:39equation localized, keeping the Prime Minister's campaign and popularity as we have seen in Haryana
23:45or Maharashtra or even in Jammu region on the back end, actually. For that matter, even in Delhi,
23:51if we have seen that. So, this localization is a two-way process. It's a dual-edged sword,
23:58I would say. And everybody has to deal with that. But these numbers do matter, keeping in mind that
24:06Prime Minister still remains popular and he does influence his, at least his part of the way to put
24:13behind the NDA numbers. You know, this question, Anshuman Tiwari, comes in every election. Whether
24:22these elections, the more localized they get, the better the chances, it seems, of the opposition,
24:27although Maharashtra and Haryana were a major setback. The moment it becomes, the BJP makes it more
24:34a referendum on Prime Minister Modi, that much easier for the BJP to win as per past elections.
24:41Do you believe Bihar is unique in that sense because of the complexity of caste equations?
24:46Muslims plus Yadavs give the Mahagadbandan about a 30% vote. But beyond that, they have a struggle to
24:55build new caste communities, new caste equations. And therefore, that will matter much more than how
25:00popularity, how much popular Mr. Modi or Raul Gandhi are?
25:06See, it's going to be a localized election for sure and it's going to be very close. Because if you
25:11compare just the satisfaction rating of Prime Minister Modi versus Nitish Kumar, you see a huge difference.
25:19Because the number of satisfied and the number of dissatisfied with Nitish Kumar's performance is
25:25almost equal or it's negative to that extent. Because this somewhat satisfied to some extent is
25:33rather a floating voter. It is the kingmaker sort of a voter because both these alliances are pocket
25:38votes of around 35% each as per the survey also. But in a very close election, Prime Minister Modi
25:47can become the differentiating factor. Even if 4-5% of the people are going to vote on the Prime
25:54Ministerial face in a very close election, he can become the differentiating factor.
26:00See, the RJD or the Mahagadbandan as we mentioned is largely facing 3 structural challenges. One is
26:07its inability to garner votes outside of the MY vote block. It needs to add either EBC and or Dalits
26:16choice vote block to cross that 40-45% threshold which Yashwan Ji was telling about.
26:21Somehow the stigma of Jangal Raj, the RJD has not been able to shrug off or neutralize.
26:29Right.
26:29Just look at it, it has been chipped with him. And the third factor is that the symbol of RJD,
26:36which is a lantern today, lacks modernity somehow. Correct. So it's not able to solve his structural
26:44challenges unless it is able to do that. And Tejasui is making a lot of efforts in that area. He's holding a
26:51lot of sub-caste, some melons. So they need to add the EBC and or Dalit vote block to win this election.
26:58That won't be easy, of course, given that Nitish Kumar has usually held on to a large section of the EBC
27:04vote, that the Dalit vote, the Chirag factor comes in. But, but, Syed Zafar Islam, we saw in 2020,
27:12RJD emerged as party number one. They were very close to winning. Would you therefore concede,
27:17while you're claiming you're going to break all records, if 2020 is any barometer,
27:22Bihar is a lot tougher than maybe many other North Indian states are for you. It's a state where in the
27:29past also, we've seen caste combinations and local factors make elections far tougher than in other parts.
27:37Well, if you do a back testing of all the results since 2005, Rajdeep, then you will realize that it was
27:44aberration in 2020 because RJD has never been able to get across beyond 50 and 55 seats. Having said that,
27:54as Amitabh Tiwari ji was rightly saying that it's a modern age and the people are these days not
28:02talking about the caste, but they are talking about the development. And LantanтАж
28:06They're talking about jobs. They're talking about jobs. One of the prime factors that Tejasvi is
28:13pushing is jobs. Naukri.
28:15No. So, I'm just coming to that. So, people are fed up with Lantan and now the era is of LED. So,
28:23they all understand that which party is thinking on those lines to provide more jobs and opportunities
28:28to youth. And that is something which we have been able to deliver in the last several years.
28:34Tejasvi Yado, whenever they have the opportunity, they only think of their family members. Like,
28:41for instance, they had the opportunity to have two deputy chief ministers. They chose both the
28:48brothers instead of any other from the party. That suggests that their only focus for the family,
28:54the rest of the people or the state is not relevant for them. They work on some combination,
29:01MY. But this time, even that will not work. Because even the recent bi-poll election suggests
29:08that whatever may be, even seats we have not won ever in the past, we have been able to win those
29:15seats as well. That only suggests that we have a very cohesive, very strong unit. Everyone is
29:20contributing. We, be it the chief minister or the deputy chief minister. And of course, the honorable
29:25prime minister continues to be a very popular leader. And he makes a lot of difference when he enters into
29:31polling during the campaign. You know, Anshul, Anshul Abjit, there is this feeling that there is no
29:37incremental voter. There is no new voter who's coming to your alliance. Your alliance is still
29:41stuck in that sense, in the traditional MY combination. And the Congress in particular
29:47is unable to bring new voters. Your upper caste vote deserted you over the years. And you've not got a
29:53single caste grouping that can identify with the Congress in a very caste conscious state. How do you then
29:59break out of the trap? How does the Congress and the Mahagadbandhan break out of this MY trap?
30:03Without breaking out of that, you can't win this election.
30:08That's the problem, Rajdeep. You're making the election very, very reductive in terms of caste.
30:14As it showed last time in 2020, and you've mentioned that, the challenge in parties in Bihar, and of
30:20course, Bihar is notoriously caste-ridden. I've seen that firsthand. I've seen it over the years.
30:24Everybody else has. But the biggest challenge is how to make issues like jobs, employment,
30:30education, health, where Bihar is reeling. It comes the worst in all social sector indicators.
30:37It's absolutely the worst. How to make that relevant or how to make that a linear relationship
30:44between electoral outcomes and health and economic suffering. How does that happen?
30:48It happened last time. How are you doing it? 30 seconds. How are you doing it? How are you doing it?
30:52Well, it didn't happen last time. You lost the looks of our elections.
30:55Social justice. No, no. I'm telling you. So, social justice, and let's not reduce it to caste and
31:00development go hand in hand. That's one thing. And we're talking about jobs. We're talking about the
31:05degraded nature of the health services in Bihar. We're talking about employment over there.
31:10We're talking about the flight of farmers. We're talking about education, where 50% of primary
31:15school children have forgotten to read and write. And that is really the situation over there.
31:19Okay. Interesting, interesting, interesting. These are also some of the issues that Prashant,
31:24these are interesting that these are also some of the issues Prashant. Now, I'm giving you only 10 seconds.
31:29Only 10 seconds, Syed Zafar Islam. No more. All I want to highlight here, that maybe Anshul is speaking
31:36all these things, but does he know that the dynamics between them and the RJD, because RJD is clearly not
31:44going to give them the number of seats they require. They won't, because the RJD feels...
31:48Okay, let's... Zafar, what about the dynamics... No, no, let's not even go down that route. We've
31:52heard both sides. We've heard now. I want to leave it there. There'll be many more opportunities.
31:58I have only given the numbers and what the numbers show. The numbers show at the moment. Yes, there is
32:02anti-incumbency. Yes, Nitish's numbers are low, but purely as a combination, the NDA at the moment seems
32:08to have the arithmetic with them. We'll wait and see how and if those numbers change. Remember, elections in
32:15Bihar expected in November this year. So that's a tracker that we brought you. Let's turn from our election
32:21tracker to our other big story tonight. There was a showdown today at the Shanghai Cooperation
32:26Organization's defense ministers meet in Guangdong in China. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh refused to
32:33sign a draft statement that excluded the Pahalgam terror attack while including the Baluchistan train
32:39hijacking, a clear sign that Pakistan and China were working in tandem. Rajnath Singh made it very clear
32:46that the statement did not explicitly address India's concerns on terror. Take a look at the Chinpak factor.
32:53A brief moment at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit exposed the deep divide within.
33:14Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday refused to sign a draft statement that excluded the Pahalgam terror attack,
33:20but sought to include the Baluchistan train hijacking in Pakistan.
33:31The defense ministers of India, China and Pakistan came face to face in Qingdao at the summit of the
33:3810 nation grouping. This was their first such meeting after the four day long conflict between India and Pakistan.
33:44At the meet Rajnath Singh launched an all-out attack on Pakistan. While the Indian Minister did not name the
33:53neighbor, the message was clear.
33:55The peace and prosperity cannot co-exist with terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of the mass
34:05destruction in the hands of the non-state actors and the terror groups. It is imperative that those who
34:13sponsor, nurture and utilize terrorism for their narrow and selfish sins must bear the consequences. Some countries
34:21use cross border terrorism as an instrument of policy and provide shelter to terrorists. There should be no
34:30place for such double standards. Yes, you should not hesitate to criticize such nations.
34:39Sources tell India today no pleasantries were exchanged between Rajnath Singh and his Pakistani counterpart
34:45Khwaja Asif. The attempt to squeeze in Balochistan attack while keeping Pahlgaam out does not come as a
34:52surprise given the extent of support given by China to Pakistan during Operation Sindur.
35:01Certain member countries could not reach consensus on certain issues and hence the document could not be
35:08finalized. On our side, India wanted concerns on terrorism reflected in the document which was not
35:14acceptable to one particular country and therefore the statement was not adopted.
35:21The SCO summit was further more proof of the close strategic alliance between Pakistan and China.
35:27Pakistan, which has long used terror as a weapon to target India, has evidently become China's proxy now.
35:36The Chin Park Tango has emerged as India's biggest security challenge in the region.
35:41And that's precisely the question I want to raise now. It's a serious question of India's strategic
35:52concerns. China Park Alliance, is that now our biggest security challenge? How can India tackle the chin-pack
35:59factor as I'm calling it? Is this fused front as we saw in Operation Sindur, the new security reality
36:06India has to be confronted with? Aynar Thanggan, Senior Fellow, Tahe Institute joins me from China and TCA
36:13Raghwan, former envoy to Pakistan and one of India's most senior and distinguished diplomats with us.
36:20I want to come to you, Mr. Raghwan, first. Is this a reality that we have to live with? Chin-packed.
36:25We saw that statement at the SCO wanting to focus on the Baluchistan train hijacking, but not a mention of
36:31Pahlgaam. Is this China and Pakistan once again even using every possible forum to try and target and embarrass India?
36:40Well, the China-Pakistan strategic relationship is hardly new. It is a reality with which we have lived
36:48for almost half a century. And the fact that both coordinate their positions in international
36:56multilateral gatherings is also not in itself new. In the SCO meeting, what was significant
37:06is that a consensus could not emerge on the issue of terrorism. Now, that in itself is not surprising
37:15because India and Pakistan have radically different views on many aspects of terrorism. But given the
37:23fact that terrorism is such an important pillar of the SCO fraternity's own agenda, this, the fact that
37:33a consensus could not be reached is not a good development. You know, Aina Tangyan, respond to what
37:40you just heard from TCA Raghwan. Here is the SCO, surely at the very least, consensus should have been
37:47built around what happened in Pahlgaam. It was the worst form of a terror attack that even involved
37:52religious, the targeting of people on the grounds of religion. Unacceptable. Surely the SCO should have
38:00come with a strong statement on Pahlgaam. But it appears Pakistan and China simply will not even accept
38:07the terror emanating out of Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
38:10Well, I think if you go back to your news report, I agree with most of the things my colleague has
38:17said. But if you go back to the news report, it was basically Pakistan and India who had a difference
38:24about what you included. Pakistan wanted Balochistan in and you wanted it to force the terror attack
38:32that had occurred. The problem, and I agree with it, is, you know, the SCO, it's supposed to be
38:40a way of solving, resolving poor disputes with regional neighbors. But for some countries,
38:48it's a platform for tactical engagement on a political basis. It would have been great if
38:56instead of going forward with a kinetic action, India had put the SCO to the test and said, listen,
39:04this terror attack has to be followed down. If this organization is truly about fighting terror,
39:09we need an independent investigation. And, you know, Pakistan has to cooperate. But we find that
39:16they have the state sponsored this terror. The SCO has to do something. But the problem isтАж
39:22But Aynar, if I may just stop you, in the past, we've seen that Pakistan has really never fully
39:29cooperated, whether it's 2611, where India supplied dossier after dossier, or indeed after Pathan code,
39:35where we were even willing to have a joint investigation for a while, what did we get?
39:39Another terror attack. So there is a lack of trust, a lack of faith. And it seems that China, rather than,
39:46you know, accept India's position, wants to use every occasion to try and showcase that it's
39:51firmly allied with Pakistan. Well, I would have to beg to differ. This is a setback for China. Remember,
40:00they were hoping that this would be a grouping that would solve regional issues, not, you know,
40:07bring them to the forefront and make them that public. So it is certainly not something that
40:13Beijing wanted. The fact that this is a consensus group, right, that it's not China and Pakistan. There
40:22are 10 nations that are part of this. And they have to agree in order to have a joint communique,
40:29that means that, you know, eight of them wanted to have something said, but two of them wanted to
40:37argue. Unfortunately, there's no way for the SEO has no dispute resolution mechanism. So and that's
40:47perhaps one of its weaknesses. It's one of its possible many weaknesses. Is this is does this show
40:53the limitations of organization like SEO? When you have China, Pakistan and India on the same table?
41:00Do you really expect any kind of consensus to emerge?
41:05Consensus has emerged on many issues in different SEO meetings. In this meeting, I would agree that there
41:13was as the host country, it is it was China's principal responsibility to steer a consensus
41:21document through the fact that a consensus could not emerge to that extent is not something that China
41:30would be happy about. As I said, terrorism is a central plank in the SEO structure. They have a
41:39regional anti-terrorist organization in built into the SEO structure. So a difference
41:49like this emerging at such a high level meeting is not a good development. Essentially,
41:56I would say that the Chinese should have worked harder to see that a consensus document does emerge
42:04on such a central issue such as terrorism. India, Pakistan, different differences are not due on
42:12terrorism, but there are always ways in making sure that some kind of consensus does emerge.
42:20I just want to play what Shiv Shankar Menon, former foreign secretary and NSA and someone who served as
42:25ambassador in Pakistan and China told me when I spoke to him a few a week ago on this chin pack factor,
42:32this fusion of China and Pakistan. Listen in to what he said.
42:38It's not just Pakistan and its army, Mr. Menon, isn't it China? Many call it chin pack. Many believe
42:44China is the sort of elephant in the room, that even during Operation Sindur, it was China which was
42:51guiding the Pakistan army. Therefore, we face the fear or the possibility of a two-front war. Does that,
42:58in a way, again, constrain us? Or do you believe that that is a challenge that we will have to now
43:05meet, that we're not just dealing with Pakistan, but we're dealing with what some would call chin pack?
43:10I think the possibility of a two-front war is something that we've planned for and worked about,
43:16worked on actually since 2008 within the government of India. That's not a new idea. I think it's the
43:24level of fusion between the Pakistani and Chinese militaries. That, I think, is something that needs
43:32to be, and for me, is the big learning from this round, is we have to look very carefully into how
43:41far they worked together, how far operations were actually fused, and how far they did.
43:46I don't know enough. I mean, I'm outside government, have been for a long time,
43:53but I think that is something we need to look at very closely. Not just on the military side,
43:59but also on the diplomatic side. But is that, you know, you heard that
44:03about Shivshank and Menon talking about the fusion between China and Pakistan. It's existed in the past.
44:10It seems to have Aina Tangan only got even closer, as we saw in Operation Sindhu. Do you agree with
44:16that, that China and Pakistan now operate in complete tandem with each other, particularly when it comes
44:21to India? No, not really. I mean, if you start looking at CPAC and things like that, there have been a
44:30number of disputes. Chinese engineers have been killed, and the Chinese have said, look, we're going
44:38to stop until you can, you know, keep your end of the bargain. So this idea that somehow Pakistan and
44:45China are acting as one is, you know, it's good for nationalist propaganda, but the fact is China is
44:52its own country. Pakistan has a lot of problems economically. Their structure is very, very,
45:01very difficult. China is trying to have trade relations and trying to go through Pakistan because
45:08they need trade routes, need alternatives. So they invested a tremendous amount of money,
45:13hoping that this would help stabilize Pakistan, but that hasn't really happened. So this idea that
45:20somehow China and Pakistan are acting together? No. Are they friendly? Yes. Pakistan has stood by
45:26China, China has stood by Pakistan. They're friendly, but not acting in... And at the same time,
45:29India has not. All right. Let's be clear. There's been a lot of border issues. There are a lot of
45:36aggravation between these two, a lot of frictions. And, you know, you can't expect China to be
45:44bending over backwards if you're, you know, smacking them in the face. Final word from you, TCA,
45:49Raghavan. You heard Shiv Shankar Menon talk about the fusion of China and Pakistan presenting India's
45:54biggest security strategic challenge. You agree with that? Well, I agree that for military planning
46:01purposes, you should always plan for the worst. And when you have deeply adversarial relations with
46:08two countries, to expect a joint front is something you should be prepared for. But preparing from a
46:15planning perspective is different from making something into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
46:21I don't think we should constantly assume that Pakistan and China are jointly plotting together.
46:28The fact of their close strategic partnership is well-known. After all, from the 1970s onwards,
46:36there were transfers of nuclear weapon technology from China to Pakistan. So this is hardly
46:42something to be suddenly surprised about. And they have been undertaking defense exercises of
46:49increasing complexity over the past decade and a half, including joint production of fighter aircraft,
46:56etc., etc. But the point is that we have to manage both relationships. And we should not forget
47:03that at a time when there was a serious dip in the India-China relationship on account of the Galwan
47:11factor of the line of actual control. At that very same time, in 2021, India and Pakistan agreed to a
47:19to a ceasefire on the line of control. So as I said, we have to avoid falling into the trap of a self-fulfilling
47:27prophecy where China and Pakistan are concerned. We have to manage these deeply adversarial relationships
47:35to our advantage. Okay. Let me leave it there. Not easy, given the fact that there is this element of
47:42fusion that seems to exist at different levels between China and Pakistan. But always appreciate
47:47Ayanar Tangan joining us, taking the time off. TCA Raghavan, thank you so much for your views. Appreciate it.
47:53Up to our ground report now. Flash floods triggered by a cloud burst killed at least three people near
47:58Dharamshala in Himachal Pradesh. A search is still on for the missing persons as several parts of
48:03Himachal read under flash floods. Our ground report tonight.
48:13Flash floods hit Kanyara village near Dharamshala. Workers at the Manuni Khard hydro project were taken by
48:21surprise on Wednesday when a cloud burst triggered floods in the river. Many reportedly ran into a
48:28nearby forest to safety. At least three people were killed. Rescue work gathered pace on Thursday morning.
48:39A search is on for the missing.
48:48The river, which was in space 24 hours ago, is back to its calmer self.
49:10The toppled equipment at the work site, however, revealed the real fury of the flash floods.
49:26More rain is predicted in Himachal Pradesh this week. The med department has issued a yellow alert in the state.
49:34With Aman Bharadwaj, Bureau Report, India Today.
49:40Trouble there in Himachal Pradesh. Our thoughts and prayers with its people.
49:44Let's turn to tonight's Get Real India story. Education doesn't come easy for many students in
49:49Andhra Pradesh's Solubungi area. Each day brings risk as students undertake a rough journey crossing the
49:56Raiwada Canal in a boat and then navigating dense forest terrain just to attend class.
50:02Here's a report with more details. Get Real India.
50:07Here's a report with more details.
50:08Here's a report with more details.
50:12Where roads disappear on a whim and rivers dictate your daily routine,
50:25the path to education is nothing short of test for survival.
50:42This is Solubungu, a village in Andhra Pradesh where going to school is a distant dream and the
50:53fight to learn begins with a boat ride, continues with the trek and is completed with unshakable grit.
51:10Every day, these children risk their lives crossing the Raiwada Canal and trekking nearly
51:16four kilometers through dense forests and steep hills just to attend class in the neighboring Tamarabha village.
51:2746 November
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53:11children are still waiting for a classroom of their own is this going to
53:20be a distant reality or something that the children and the parents likewise
53:24can expect in the near future all that they're asking for is simple demands a
53:30proper road for transportation and education for their children not too
53:41okay let's turn to India today's fact check now the claim was that video shows
53:46people in Tel Aviv jumping from a burning house during the Iran-Israel conflict the
53:51fact is the video shows a fire that broke out in Tiberias an Israeli city on
53:56March 1 well before the conflict with Iran began okay let's leave you with our
54:03good news today's story and it was one of our top headlines it's official for the
54:06first time ever the International Space Station has now officially an Indian on
54:10board group captain Shubhraanshu Shukla affectionately known as affectionately
54:15known as Shooks successfully commandeered the Dragon aircraft to dock with the
54:19International Space Station earlier this evening representing another giant
54:23achievement for India's space exploration I want to leave you tonight with that
54:28story with all our good wishes to Shubhraanshu and the entire team thanks
54:33for watching stay well stay safe good night Shubhraatri Jai Hind Namaskar
54:40I'll see you next time
54:45I'll see you next time
54:47you
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