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00:00Let's talk about Scottie first, Keith, because obviously he is the heavy, heavy favorite here at Oakmont coming up.
00:08Now, you have had some very creative ways to play Scottie as he's gotten on fire here.
00:14I believe, what do we want now? Three of his last four starts, right, Keith?
00:17I believe it's three of the last four Scotties won, including, of course, the PGA Championship last month.
00:22So give me some ways that we could bet this guy because plus 280 for the entire tournament,
00:27and that's just not palatable to me, Keith.
00:30Let me try to encapsulate for you how much of a favorite or how much he is playing better than the field, right?
00:37Over his last five starts, and you mentioned it, you were right, Mike, three wins and four starts,
00:41but over his last five starts, Scottie's gaining 14 strokes per tournament against the field.
00:47If that's too big a number for you, then every round of the four rounds, he's gaining three and a half strokes on the field.
00:52So he's basically starting like a dozen ahead this week at Oakmont, or at least 10 with a double-digit lead.
00:57He's got the spread on Sunday going against Georgia.
00:59You know, I mean, it's kind of ridiculous at this point how much better he's playing.
01:03He's playing better than he did last year when he won nine times across the world.
01:07So to put that in perspective, as we head into this tournament, he's at such a low number,
01:13plus 250, plus 260, plus 280.
01:16It keeps kind of fluctuating.
01:17There's no point betting him yet to win after four rounds.
01:21We're going to have to see how this thing plays out.
01:23But there are a couple things that you can do where he goes into some smaller markets,
01:27not against the other 155 golfers, but against some smaller markets where maybe he's only going to take on just a couple of guys in the field, right?
01:34So what I love to do is I love to dabble in some of these prop markets, and I'm going to go low USA at plus 175.
01:41And then I'm going to add, I don't know, Carlos Ortiz and Corey Connors.
01:45I'm going to add low North American for plus 175.
01:47Round one, he's probably going to shoot around even par.
01:51I think that'll keep him in the top 10.
01:53So I'm going to go round one, top 10 for plus 185.
01:57And then, you know, I love the third round leader.
01:59Scott, he's notorious.
02:01He did this at Quail Hollow.
02:02He's done this in other major championships and other tournaments.
02:05He did it in rear field a couple weeks ago.
02:06He positions himself.
02:08He goes, he puts the afterburners on, on moving day.
02:11He gets up to the top of the leaderboard, and then he just squashes your soul come Sunday, right?
02:16So I love the plus 350 third round leader on Saturday night here at Oakmont.
02:22Yeah, I've seen some other crazy ones, you know, to lead after round three and win.
02:28But then he's got to finish the job on Sunday.
02:30Not saying that he wouldn't, but that was, I think, plus 500 to be the round three leader and win.
02:36So another dollar and a half.
02:39I mean, I think you're probably right.
02:40Safer, just take the 350 that he's leading after the third round, and you don't have to mess around.
02:46With anything else after that, let me, give me one, give me one.
02:50Go ahead.
02:51Go ahead.
02:51I was just going to say, if you pile those four on, you're almost getting 10 to one.
02:56And then on Saturday night, when he's minus 150 or minus 200 to win the whole thing, you add that on too.
03:02And then you just rake, right?
03:03I mean, that's basically what's going to happen.
03:06And if for some reason he's plus 250 on Sunday morning because he's like four back and we're going into this like hellacious golf course test on a Sunday at a U.S.
03:15Open to win, and the leader is like Russell Henley, like by all means, back up the truck, beep, beep, beep, and just pile on the cash at plus 250 on Scotty.
03:24And you know what the other good thing about doing that is, Keith, is you actually then have, you know, you've got a little bit of a net underneath you.
03:32You know, if he doesn't win the entire tournament, you've got some things, whether it's the first round, whether it's the low American, maybe he finishes second to roar, you know, something like that, where you're still getting paid out if he doesn't win the tournament.
03:44You're not getting paid out with that plus 280 unless he wins.
03:48You know, that's it.
03:49It's the only way that you can go.
03:50So I like what you're thinking with Scott.