The chances of tax rises in the autumn budget to help fund Labour’s spending plans are greater than 50/50, according to one of the UK’s most respected independent economists.Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the likelihood of tax increases would depend on the strength of the economy.
00:00There's a decent chance, I'm afraid, that the forecast for the economy and therefore for borrowing will get worse than they were in the spring, partly because the Office of Budget Responsibility was actually remarkably optimistic in the spring, partly because some things have got worse.
00:16So President Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty around that has slowed world economic growth without having an impact on the UK. Interest rates on government debt, expected interest rates are higher. So that's going to squeeze the amount of headroom the Chancellor has. And she left herself with almost none. So I think there is, I'm afraid, probably a better than 50-50 shot that we'll get some more tax rises in the autumn.
