00:00Chris Sale on the bump for the Braves, a minus 174 home money line price.
00:05Total stands at eight.
00:07Mark Zeno mentioned this game ever so briefly in terms of breaking down the team
00:12that he lives in the city of the Atlanta Braves.
00:14He firmly has that fork in Atlanta.
00:18He said he would take the Diamondbacks.
00:20Thinks the price is slightly up.
00:22DRS, do you agree?
00:24I would agree at this point.
00:25You take a look, too.
00:2675-degree temperatures in Atlanta.
00:28You like to see that.
00:28Maybe a rain or two shower in the forecast.
00:30That's okay.
00:31Light winds blowing in from right field.
00:32Let's get that out of the way.
00:33Chris Sale's on the mound.
00:34He's a really good pitcher.
00:35Number three on the card coming into today with full season statistics of 67 and two-thirds
00:40innings pitched and a 3.06 ERA and an XFIP of 3.11.
00:44That's really good.
00:45But Merrill Kelly's also on the mound.
00:4669 innings pitched here.
00:48How about a 378 ERA and a 348 XFIP number?
00:51Not too far behind.
00:52Now, understand this.
00:53Chris Sale's been really dominant against right-handed batters this season, which is crazy
00:57because he's a left-handed pitcher.
00:58And he's really good.
00:59We get that.
01:00235 batters that he's faced.
01:01How about a 122 ISO power number in the last 30 days, which only includes 106 batters
01:06that he's faced.
01:06That's an 0.62 ISO against right.
01:08He's in a 245 weighted on base percentage.
01:10Okay.
01:11You're probably going to have a lot of right-handed batters in the lineup today, which is what
01:14teams like to do.
01:15And you will.
01:15Corbin Carroll, Josh Naylor, probably the only left-handed bats in the lineup for the Diamondbacks.
01:20But understand this.
01:21The Diamondbacks absolutely flat-out smash left-handed pitching.
01:25You take a look at the entire lineup.
01:27Outside of Josh Naylor's 276 weighted on base percentage, everybody else is a 323 or higher,
01:32which includes guys at 434, 432, 399, 390, 359.
01:37You get the point in all low K rates outside of Corbin Carroll and Tim Tawa in that lineup.
01:42So for me, I look at that price point and say, if I'm getting pitchers, now again, pedigree
01:46pitchers, Chris Sale is better.
01:48Yes, they're the home team.
01:49There is a slight nod.
01:50But I think that price point is just too high right now, where if you can wait out both
01:53of these pitchers, you basically get a coin flip at a nice dog price here.
01:57So I'm with Mark.
01:58Do I think Atlanta wins?
01:59Well, the odds makers probably say they should, and they technically have the better pitcher.
02:02But I don't think it's too far of a stretch where that lineup can rise up and get a couple
02:05runs across the board and maybe shake Chris Sale.
02:08I'm not laying that number with the Atlanta Braves.
02:10So yeah, give me the Diamondbacks as an underdog price with that lineup that hits lefties extremely
02:14effectively.
02:15So yeah, let's see.
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