00:00Robert Koopman is the Hearst Senior Professorial Lecturer at American University and former Chief Economist at the World Trade Organization.
00:08Thanks so much for joining us. On what grounds do you think the Trump administration will most likely use to fight this ruling?
00:16Well, you know, you've already heard that they're going to appeal the ruling, but I suspect what they're going to try to do is use other provisions in U.S. law to try to impose tariffs on our trade partners.
00:28So there are already 10 investigations going on. We have six Section 332 investigations that are on national security.
00:37We have three 302 investigations, which are about unfair export practices, and one Section 201, which is about U.S. sector being injured.
00:49So I think they're going to use many of those tools, those three in particular.
00:54The challenge for the administration is that each of those takes much longer, requires an investigation.
01:02It requires engaging with the private sector and the public and hearing from our trade partners about the specific elements that they propose as trade measures in there.
01:14That will slow the process down.
01:17It will allow those who would be adversely affected by the potential tariffs to actually weigh in publicly.
01:24And typically what happens is that the initial proposed policies and those things get changed.
01:31So I think those will be the main tools.
01:34The difference compared to IEPA is there's not as much flexibility.
01:39There's much more engagement.
01:40It takes much longer time.
01:42Time is of the essence, of course.
01:44Can the administration proceed with tariff deals pending this appeal, or must all of it be stopped in the meantime?
01:54No, they can continue negotiating, although the president will complain that his leverage has been temporarily removed.
02:02But I think all the trading partners realize that regardless of what the outcome is in the appeal process,
02:10that this president intends to raise tariffs on imports and encourage reshoring in the United States.
02:18There's another provision he can use.
02:20It's a temporary provision called Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
02:25That would allow him to put, for 150 days, a 15% tariff or quotas on imports.
02:32So that gives him much more unilateral action, but the time frame is limited compared to those other actions.
02:40Congress can extend those.
02:42Go ahead.
02:43Sorry, news just coming in that I want to ask you about.
02:45Trump apparently could ask the Supreme Court to halt this bloc as soon as Friday with his advisor, Peter Navarro, saying they've got lots of other tariff options available,
02:56even if the Court of International Trade ruling stands.
03:00What's your sense of hearing that information?
03:03So I think that's exactly where I expected them to go, and I just listed these other legislative tools that they can use to raise tariffs,
03:13including that last one, Section 122, which the president can do very quickly, but for a time-limited period, 150 days.
03:22Congress could then extend that.
03:24So that would give him immediate leverage once again.
03:27But I suspect they'll wait to see what the Supreme Court says.
03:30The Court of International Trade ruling is pretty clear.
03:33It's pretty stark.
03:35It'd be really surprising to me, but I'm an economist, not a lawyer, if the Supreme Court would actually overturn the CIT ruling.
03:43All right.
03:43Thank you so much for your insights.
03:45Robert Koopman is the Hearst Senior Professorial Lecturer at American University, also a former chief economist at the World Trade Organization.
