00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:24where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. The leaders
00:31from Southeast Asia, the Gulf Cooperation Council and China are meeting for the first ever ASEAN
00:38GCC China Economic Summit. It's a new trilateral dialogue that could reshape the contours of
00:46international cooperation. Now against the backdrop of shifting global power, the summit brings
00:51together three of the world's most dynamic economic regions, each with its own strategic
00:57agenda. But while economic cooperation headlines the current agenda, geopolitical undercurrents
01:06cannot be denied. They're hard to ignore. So what does this new triangle of cooperation say about
01:12the future of power, partnership and influence across Asia and the Middle East? Well joining me
01:18now to help unpack this is geostrategist Dr. Oh Isan, who's a senior fellow at the Singapore
01:24Institute of International Affairs and the principal advisor of Pacific Research Center, Malaysia.
01:31Isan, good to have you on the show. Thank you so much for joining me. I'm wondering what you think
01:35about this convening of the inaugural ASEAN GCC China Economic Summit. What does it signal to you,
01:40Isan, about the shifting dynamics of global power? Well, number one, it's a very bold and innovative move
01:51on the part of ASEAN in general, but Malaysia specifically, because ASEAN is indeed bringing together
02:02two of the most, as you said, dynamic economic players in the world. We saw that, for example,
02:14China is the world's second largest economy and the Gulf region, of course, with its abundance of
02:22energy, of oil and so on. They are in a position to invest in a big way around the world. So trying to put
02:32together these three very active actors, we are also the fastest growing region of the world. Hopefully,
02:38I think we could have some sort of primarily economic synergy. So let's see what kind of projects we could
02:47cater for cater for the betterment of the livelihoods of our people.
02:53Right. So when you say primarily economic synergy, do you think this is really all about kind of
03:01pragmatic economic cooperation? Or is there a broader geopolitical signaling about, you know,
03:10about purpose in an increasingly multipolar world?
03:13Well, you saw the American president, Donald Trump, having only recently, like two weeks ago,
03:22visited some of the major members of the Gulf Corporation Council, right? Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
03:29and the UAE. So and they roll out not only red carpets, but purple carpets to welcome him. So you could
03:39see that these countries, they are not taking sides. They are on the one hand, very welcoming our
03:45President Trump and trying to work with the Americans, invest in America and having the American
03:52transport technology on the one hand. On the other hand, they also did not hesitate two weeks later to
03:59reach out to us and to China to also try to work something out. That's something, frankly speaking,
04:07I don't think it's something strategic in the sense that they are trying to align themselves closer
04:14to, let's say, China in terms of the current geo-strategic confrontation between US and China.
04:22But indeed, they are trying to dip their hands or dip their fingers into both pots of gold.
04:28But China is part of this trilateral alignment. Do you not think that by having this group,
04:38it risks pulling ASEAN with its principle of neutrality closer into a China-centric orbit?
04:47Well, if China is willing to invest more, to buy more from us, frankly speaking, I don't think a lot of
04:54Southeast Asian countries might have been so-called drawn into the China-centric circle.
05:01But of course, in recent years, China, especially after the pandemic, has slowed down a lot in terms of
05:09the scale and scope of its investments and trade and so on. So for at least us, for Southeast Asia,
05:17for ASEAN in particular, if you want to win our hearts and soul, if you want us to be closer to you
05:25and not to your rival, well, then the best thing is to trade with us more and to invest more in us.
05:31If you could do that, yeah, I don't think we mind, frankly speaking.
05:35Can we talk a little bit about the winners here? I mean, when you talk about economic synergy,
05:42how do you see all the economies involved in this grouping benefiting from this alignment?
05:48I'm just wondering, how does China benefit? How does GCC benefit? How can ASEAN really
05:54maximize the benefit from this grouping? And is there a balance in terms of power dynamics?
06:02Could one be a bigger winner than the others?
06:04Well, of course, China is the big elephant in the room. There's no doubt about it. But of course,
06:12let's start with, let's say, ASEAN. Well, we need some of the more advanced technology from China,
06:20ranging from high speed rail to all these AI and drone technologies and other sorts of high technology.
06:29Well, China perhaps it's willing to, in a sense, transfer some of these technologies and to
06:36set up some of their plans here. But frankly speaking, they are short of funds. They are short of
06:41the real hard cash to invest. And lo and behold, you have our friends from the Arab world who are
06:49flush with cash so they could do the investment. China could do the technology transfer. For the Arab
06:57countries, of course, they would like to diversify the economy and not be totally dependent upon oil
07:05and gas and related economic products. So, for example, again, the technology from China and some
07:13of the experience of Southeast Asian countries, you know, we were, we used to be not very rich part of
07:20the world, but within half a century, we transfer ourselves into the fastest growing region in the
07:26world, right? So, there are some examples, some experience for the Gulf country to look after.
07:33For China, of course, it's, well, new markets in the Middle East. You partner with some of the major,
07:41shall we say, Muslim majority countries in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and so on, and go and explore
07:48some of these new markets in the Middle East. So, potentially, it could bring some sort of benefits to
07:54all three parties. Okay. Well, what do we have to watch out for in terms of seeing whether that
08:01potential that you talked about will be maximized? Will this axis of cooperation between ASEAN, the GCC,
08:11and China live up to this wonderful potential that you've painted for us?
08:16Well, I think the implementation part would be important. I can already foresee there will be some
08:23projects and some cooperation proposals to be signed in the next few days and so on. But whether they will
08:31really be realized, whether in the implementation process, we will face difficulties such as bureaucratic
08:40entanglements such as non-cariff barriers and so on. Frankly speaking, that remains to be seen.
08:48But you need at least one pilot project, right? You need one, for example, I could immediately think of,
08:56let's say, durian and durian products, right? Right now, we are exporting a lot of durians to China,
09:03but the Middle Eastern friends, perhaps they are not so enamored with durian.
09:07If we could do something about the food products of durian, you need some sort of,
09:15shall we say, successful pirate project in order to push this forward.
09:21Okay, well, zooming out, not just looking at the ASEAN GCC and China Economic Summit, but also
09:30the ASEAN GCC, I think this is the second time that's convening, and the 46th ASEAN Summit, which is
09:36happening. When you think about all these players coming together in KL to discuss maybe the future
09:44of regional cooperation, how would you emphasize the importance of this? The fact that we're chair
09:50of this summit as well. What is at stake for the ordinary citizens across ASEAN, as all of these new
09:59economic and geopolitical alignments take shape here in our backyard?
10:05Well, these are two huge regional blocks. One is very rich, one is growing very fast. Of course,
10:14there are synergies between the two of them. You know, not so long ago, we don't quite know,
10:21with the exception of some of our Muslim friends, about the Arab world, right? But nowadays, when we talk
10:27about a holiday destination, Dubai would immediately spring to mind, right? And some of my friends even,
10:35you know, are talking about destination in Saudi Arabia, which for a lot of us unimaginable not so
10:42long ago. On the other hand, you also see a lot of Arab tourists coming to KL and to other parts of
10:51the country and also to other Southeast Asian countries. So, for example, in tourism, there's a lot
10:59to work together such that we can travel visa-free, for example. But I think overall, well, we have that
11:10sort of experience, being able to transform ourselves from an agricultural society to an industrialized
11:18one. Arab countries, granted, they are flush with cash, but I think they are also looking at ways to
11:26diversify the economy in their own terms. Sometimes with American help, sometimes with Chinese help, but
11:35I think they see us in Southeast Asia as really good examples as well. Wonderful. Dr. Oh Isan,
11:43thank you so much for being on the show with me. That was Dr. Oh Isan, Senior Fellow from the Singapore
11:49Institute of International Affairs. We're going to take a quick break here and consider this. We'll be back with more.
11:54Stay tuned.
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