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00:00Regardless, we hear from the people. Time now for Fade the Public.
00:11At Sports Grid on Twitter, who will win tonight's NBA playoff games?
00:16Yesterday, when a similar question was asked for our doubleheader on a Monday evening,
00:22Donnie's issue with the Fade the Public poll wasn't necessarily the answers or the context.
00:27It was the fact that he misread the answers because of a plus sign, meaning our two-leg Moneyline parlay for the two teams to win outright.
00:37So he asked for a slight change in the verbiage or at least the structure.
00:43No longer a plus, but an and symbol in there.
00:47Joe Frizo, our producer extraordinaire, accommodates today.
00:51And yet, DRS still has an issue.
00:54Tough scene, man. Very tough scene.
00:56No, see, the issue is not with the N sign or the plus sign.
01:01It's the Cavaliers Nuggets, Cavaliers Thunder, Pacers Nuggets, Pacers and Thunder.
01:05But the N sign isn't the difference. It's that there's two on each line.
01:08I told you. We just want to have one name on one line that we can vote for.
01:12Now, I don't do anything on purpose, just to set up content.
01:14Sometimes it just happens, and me looking at the poll, realizing myself,
01:18Oh, look at this. It happened again. You know what I voted for? Pacers and Nuggets.
01:21I don't think the Pacers and the Nuggets are both winning tonight.
01:24So there you go. Terrible poll, once again, where the mind is getting tricked here,
01:27because like, wait, Cavs, Nuggets. Let me think. No, it's Cavs, Thunder.
01:30No, no, Pacers, Nuggets. Pacers, Thunder, Thunder, Pacers. Nuggets, Pacers.
01:33It's ridiculous here. So I voted in the 21.4%, and I don't even want to be in that 21.4%.
01:39So all of these Fugazi numbers that we're getting back to the people, just like myself,
01:43are having too much to think about early in the morning.
01:46One team per line, end of story, get the real poll up here.
01:50And that's why we only got like 103 votes. It's too much thinking. It's too much nonsense.
01:55But if we were to ask DRS on a night where the Cavaliers, despite facing elimination,
02:00are a seven-and-a-half-point home favorite in the land,
02:03in the one seat in the Western Conference, is an 11-and-a-half-point favorite against the Denver Nuggets.
02:09If we were just to ask the four teams that play tonight, Pacers, Cavs, Nuggets, and Thunder,
02:16to pick one team to win, it would make most sense for the public just to select Oklahoma City
02:22because they're a double-digit home favorite tonight.
02:25So we'll be getting the best of this poll either way.
02:29How about just which team covers?
02:32Plus seven, minus seven. Plus four, minus four. Easy.
02:35Like, click on, couple hundred votes. Easy.
02:38Easy. Prospects, I'm telling you.
02:39And I'm glad it worked out this way because I didn't even realize I voted wrong
02:43until I actually just reopened up the app when we're getting ready for the segment.
02:47Like, oh, look at that. Pacers and Nuggets.
02:49I don't think the Nuggets win tonight, but somehow I voted that way
02:52because it's a convoluted section where it's just millions of names in there with an N sign.
02:56Like, hey, pick your poison. Maybe one of them's right.
02:59So for a guy that at times would rather talk about anything than break down an NBA game
03:05regardless of its regular or postseason for a third time in an hour,
03:10our producer Joe Frizo just sent me a note.
03:13He asked, would you like the opposite?
03:15He changes the poll, but then we have to do each game in its own segment,
03:20having to break down games for even a larger amount of time,
03:23to which I would actually say I'm Team DRS here.
03:28We wouldn't have to do that.
03:29We could still break down both games in the same segment
03:31if we gave those four options for the public there.
03:36No, we would have plenty of time.
03:38In fact, maybe even less time in doing so.
03:41So maybe I'm kind of with Donnie here.
03:44We do it a little bit more creatively tomorrow for our doubleheader of Game 5s
03:48that we'll have in two series clinching potentials
03:51with the Knicks on the road in Boston and the T-Wolves back at home in Minnesota.
03:55Let's get to the actual games tonight, DRS.
03:58I might have overinflated OKC's spread.
04:01They're just a 10-and-a-half point favorite tonight in Oklahoma City in Game 5.
04:07The Cavaliers are a 7-and-a-half point favorite at home
04:11despite some injury concerns.
04:14Donovan Mitchell said he will be good to go,
04:16but he missed the entirety of the second half in the Game 4 route
04:20against Indiana in Indianapolis on Sunday night.
04:24Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, DeAndre Hunter should all be there as well.
04:30So DRS, your own fade to public poll.
04:32Who has the best chance of covering tonight in our two games
04:36on this Tuesday in the NBA playoffs?
04:40Probably the Pacers for me,
04:41even though you never want to get caught up in that public dog at this point.
04:44We see them getting 7-and-a-half points in just about every outlet,
04:47including the FanDuel Sportsbook.
04:48I think I have a better read on the Pacers-Cavaliers game
04:51because I'm not expecting a Cleveland Cavaliers blowout in any fashion
04:54or the same way with the Pacers.
04:55I do think this game plays within double digits either side.
04:58We get a pretty clean game all the way through,
05:00understanding that there is no tomorrow
05:02if the Cleveland Cavaliers lose this game on their home court.
05:04They're going to throw the kitchen sink,
05:06but is the kitchen sink already broke with Donovan Mitchell,
05:08who maybe he's not 100% in this game
05:10and a couple of other starters and bench players the same way?
05:14With that Nuggets-Thunder game that I look at here
05:16and that 10-and-a-half-point spread, I'm telling you right now,
05:18like Denver could win this outright.
05:20Denver could lose with under 10 points.
05:23OKC can win under 10 points,
05:24or OKC can win by 35 points tonight.
05:27So, you know, I'm not going to blow the pick that I like in this,
05:29but there is always my favorite break in case of emergency, right?
05:34You ever see the glass?
05:35Knock through it there,
05:36and I pulled out a certain player, Ben,
05:38which I'll tell you later in this hour
05:40who that player is going to be.
05:41But I got to tell you,
05:42I have no feel for that Nuggets-Thunder game at all for that spread.
05:46It could be close,
05:47or it could be an absolute blowout here.
05:51Denver has covered in three of four games.
05:54The Nuggets have been an underdog of at least five points
05:57in all four games so far.
05:59Denver has been nearly,
06:01in fact, they were a double-digit dog in game one,
06:04a double-digit dog in game two.
06:06They won outright in game one.
06:08They got shellacked by 43 points in game two.
06:13So, Donnie's idea that he has very little sense of what to do is correct.
06:18We have not seen, at least in Oklahoma City,
06:21the Nuggets cover, keep a game competitive,
06:24lose by about eight, but OKC wins outright.
06:28We did see that ever so slightly in game four.
06:31The Thunder, a six, six-and-a-half point road favorite,
06:34won that game by five, 92-87.
06:37DRS, we talk about the public and how they approach these games.
06:4180% of the bets on the spread for Pacers-Cavs game five,
06:47backing Indiana, and yet the line kind of working at Cleveland.
06:51More on the early line next.
06:52A doubleheader of game five action tonight in the NBA postseason.
06:57In one spot, our first game of the night,
06:59you would expect the number one seed in the Eastern Conference
07:02to be the one that could pull off the gentleman's sweep
07:05and have that series-clinching potential.
07:09Not the case.
07:09Cleveland Cavaliers down 3-1 in the series against the Indiana Pacers,
07:15hoping to stave off elimination.
07:17We also have the other one seed out in the Western Conference,
07:20returning home in a series tied at two games,
07:23all in the Thunder, expected to take that 3-2 series lead tonight.
07:28So let's start in Cleveland, first and foremost.
07:32The Cavaliers, DRS, despite being on the brink of elimination
07:35and having their wildly successful season,
07:39come to a close once again in round number two.
07:42A 7.5-point favorite tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
07:47You see that total.
07:48It is up there for game five, now standing at 230.
07:53DRS, when this line opened up,
07:55after Indiana's decisive 20-point win,
07:59but up by 41 at the halftime break on Sunday in Indy in game four,
08:04that number was 6.5.
08:06All right.
08:06Makes a lot of sense.
08:08Indiana going to be competitive,
08:09but we still give the odds makers their respect
08:12in terms of the ratings on Cleveland all year long.
08:16But hey, Darius Garland didn't play in the second half of game four.
08:19Undergoing an MRI yesterday,
08:21he is more than likely ready to go,
08:24but clearly not at 100%.
08:26The Cavs have been the team dealing with health concerns
08:29throughout this second-round set.
08:31So why is the line working more to Cleveland,
08:34especially when 80% of the bets on the spread right now
08:40on FanDuel are backing Indiana?
08:44To me, DRS, that would be some fishy line movement.
08:47What say you?
08:48It does.
08:49Now, understand this, too.
08:51Like, if Donovan Mitchell was 100% healthy
08:53and the rest of the Cleveland Cavaliers,
08:55I would say the 7.5 makes a lot of sense.
08:58Last stand for a team that's the number one overall seed
09:01in the Eastern Conference.
09:02They don't win.
09:03There is no tomorrow.
09:04That smells like a 15-20-point victory for Cleveland
09:06because they absolutely have to have it.
09:08And then you also take the notion that the Pacers will be like,
09:11you know what?
09:11We'll put our best foot forward.
09:12But if it doesn't work out,
09:13we should have two more games,
09:15including one game in our building.
09:16Let's not get injured or waste any extra energy here.
09:18Let's get back to Indiana and let's close this thing out.
09:21So I look at the FanDuel Sportsbook and say to myself,
09:23well, okay, if I'm getting Donovan Mitchell
09:25as a true game-time decision,
09:27which means he's not 100% healthy,
09:30but we're still hanging 27.5 points props for him
09:32and a heavy line on the Cavaliers,
09:34I don't understand how that makes a lot of sense.
09:37Because also understand this, it's not 2-2.
09:40It's not 3-1 for the Cavaliers
09:41where they're banged up and on their home court.
09:43I understand that, yes, they're down this year
09:45as they need the game,
09:46but they're down in the series for a reason.
09:48They haven't played as well for the Pacers.
09:50Now the expectations are,
09:52my one guy that can give me a 50 spot,
09:54if he's healthy to carry us
09:56and force a game number six,
09:58is a game-time decision,
09:59and I'm supposed to just bet into
10:01the Cleveland Cavaliers once again?
10:03I understand the public sentiment
10:04and why we're backing the Pacers,
10:06and rightfully so.
10:07Does it scare them a little bit?
10:08Not necessarily.
10:09Could they get blown out?
10:10Yes.
10:10But again, if I'm 100% a healthy Cavaliers team,
10:14they might blow the Pacers out.
10:15If Mitchell is hobbled in any way
10:17and scores 22 points,
10:19they're not blowing the Pacers out.
10:21I'm sorry.
10:21But, yeah, and Donnie,
10:23as we kind of alluded to in the series
10:25between the Knicks and the Celtics,
10:27yes, Jason Tatum suffered what appears
10:29to be an incredibly significant injury
10:31with about three minutes remaining in regulation.
10:33But the Knicks are up 3-1
10:35and have dramatically come back
10:37in their three wins in this series
10:39where Tatum has been out there
10:41and even including last night,
10:43Tatum was wonderful
10:44with a 42-point performance.
10:47Sure, Donovan Mitchell did not play
10:48in the second half of game number four.
10:51He could have gone out there
10:52and scored 50 in the second half,
10:54and it probably wouldn't have been enough
10:55against Indiana,
10:56who led by 41,
10:5880-39 at the break in game number four.
11:03So even if Donovan Mitchell is out there
11:05and even if Donovan Mitchell is 95% effective
11:07and even if Donovan Mitchell
11:09flirts with that points prop
11:11that is listed currently at 27 and a half,
11:15doesn't mean I don't believe
11:16the Pacers can win this game outright.
11:19They have been at least a five-point dog
11:21in all four games in this series.
11:23They have won all three of their victories here
11:27in this set outright as an underdog.
11:30It's been the story for an Indiana team
11:32all year long, DRS,
11:33that is now 19-18 straight up as an underdog,
11:37including the regular season,
11:3920-16-1 against the spread,
11:424-2 both outright and ATS
11:45as an underdog in this postseason.
11:48The Pacers are just a really darn good basketball team
11:51that is incredibly talented,
11:53has a lot of balance and depth
11:55in all victories for Indiana
11:57so far in the playoffs, all seven.
12:00They've had at least six players
12:01score in double figures.
12:03I think we see that continue tonight,
12:06but it is a very big public versus sharp
12:09or public versus oddsmakers type game
12:12where if the public is correct,
12:15the line move to Cleveland
12:16is going to look funny.
12:17If the oddsmakers are correct,
12:19the public in 80% of the bets on the spread
12:22backing the Pacers as the road underdog tonight
12:25is going to look comical.
12:28And also understand this too,
12:30as we're trying to line up where these spreads
12:31will actually be at game time,
12:33the overnight line,
12:35once that last game ended, Ben,
12:36was nine and a half.
12:37Now the expectations are Mitchell might not play,
12:40could play, could be banged up,
12:41has dropped that down to seven and a half
12:42across the board,
12:43which includes the FanDuel Sportsbook.
12:45The total dropping a little bit from 231 and a half
12:47down to 230.
12:48Now, if we get that information in the afternoon,
12:50no restrictions on Donovan Mitchell,
12:52even if they're lying or not,
12:53and you see peer game warmups
12:55where everything looks okay,
12:57that number is going to go higher
12:58from seven and a half.
12:59But if you are going to get news
13:01that this quote unquote true game time decision
13:04really is a true game time decision,
13:06and he doesn't look like he's running around
13:08all that well,
13:09which I'm not anticipating that to happen,
13:11then that line will shrink.
13:12But for me,
13:13I'm expecting everything to say,
13:15Donovan Mitchell is playing,
13:16he's in the starting lineup,
13:17he looks fine,
13:18you should wait probably
13:19towards closer to game time
13:21if you want the Pacers,
13:22because I think that line is going to go higher,
13:24which is interesting,
13:24as you pointed out,
13:25because the heavy amount of public tickets
13:27and money coming in on the Pacers,
13:28but that only changes on Donovan Mitchell
13:31and what we get this afternoon
13:33from soon to a press release
13:34or an NBA beat or an inside reporter there.
13:37Yeah, DRS,
13:38we saw for game two, right?
13:39The absence of Darius Garland,
13:41Evan Mobley,
13:42DeAndre Hunter moved
13:43an eight and a half,
13:44nine point spread
13:45down to five and a hook.
13:46But when everybody was fully healthy
13:48on both sides,
13:49no Darius Garland for Cleveland
13:51in game one of this series,
13:52it was an eight and a half point spread
13:54in favor of the Cavs at home.
13:56Just to represent once again
13:58how deep Indiana is in this postseason,
14:01they've got six guys
14:03currently on the FanDuel Sportsbook
14:04with a double digit points prop
14:07and Obi Toppin at eight and a half.
14:09Those six guys,
14:10Pascal Siakam,
14:11Tyrese Halliburton,
14:12both at 16 and a half,
14:13Miles Turner,
14:14Andrew Nembhardt,
14:15Aaron Neesmith,
14:16and Benedict Matherin
14:17who might be looking to air out
14:18a little of that anger
14:19after being ejected early
14:21in the opening half
14:22in game number four.
14:24Keep an eye on Halliburton.
14:26Hasn't been great scoring
14:27last two games in Indianapolis.
14:30I would go over 16 and a half
14:32for him.
14:3327 and a half,
14:34the points prop
14:34for Donovan Mitchell.
14:36If Spida's not there though,
14:38it gets really,
14:40really dicey for Cleveland.
14:42Second game of the night,
14:43DRS,
14:44you said early,
14:44Oklahoma City,
14:46back at home in OKC,
14:4710 and a half point favorite
14:49against the Denver Nuggets.
14:50Hard for you to get a read
14:52on this game.
14:53Where do you start
14:54to try to find your breakdown?
14:56Yeah,
14:57trying to understand
14:58what's supposed to take place here,
15:00right?
15:00OKC,
15:00the number one team in the NBA,
15:01number one overall seed.
15:03The capabilities to blow out
15:04the Denver Nuggets,
15:04they've done that already
15:06in this series.
15:07But also understand this,
15:08the Denver Nuggets are good.
15:09The Denver Nuggets are healthy.
15:10The Denver Nuggets
15:11have Nikola Jokic.
15:12The Denver Nuggets
15:12have won a game
15:13on OKC's home court here.
15:15So aside as if,
15:15hey Ben,
15:16first two games,
15:1740 point victories.
15:18Woo,
15:19close ones in Denver.
15:20Then you head back to OKC
15:22and it's another 40 point game.
15:23That hasn't been the case
15:24at this point.
15:24I'm expecting a big performance
15:26out of Nikola Jokic.
15:27But the reason I bring this up is
15:28we never understand
15:30the true elements of,
15:31OK,
15:31Oklahoma City,
15:32how good are they
15:33and how good would they be at home?
15:34Understanding that,
15:35yes,
15:35we got momentum back.
15:36It's two to two.
15:37Let's seize it.
15:38Let's blow them out.
15:38But also the mentality of Denver.
15:40Do they want to lose this game?
15:41No, they don't.
15:42But also understand
15:43it's not the worst thing
15:44in the world.
15:44If we lose,
15:45then we go back home
15:45to game six,
15:46force the game number seven
15:47and see what happens
15:48in this spot,
15:49which always brings me up
15:50to Russell Westbrook
15:51at this point.
15:52Ten and a half
15:52is his points prop.
15:53He's blowout proof.
15:54He will play 28 minutes
15:56regardless.
15:57If you're up 30
15:58or down 30,
15:59that's where I look
16:00in this game.
16:00I don't want to be left
16:01holding the bag
16:02with the Nuggets
16:04and it's 30 at the break.
16:05And I'm like,
16:06okay,
16:06let's take the game off
16:07and head back.
16:08Give me Russell Westbrook.
16:09We'll be just fine.
16:10Brian Fonseca
16:11helps us break down
16:12the action more next.
16:14Live right here
16:15on this Tuesday,
16:16two more games
16:17of NBA playoff action
16:19coming your way tonight.
16:20In Cleveland,
16:21the one seed
16:22in the Eastern Conference
16:23on the brink
16:24of elimination,
16:26trying to stave it off
16:27and extend the series
16:28against the Indiana Pacers.
16:29In our second game,
16:31the one seed
16:31in the Western Conference,
16:32the Oklahoma City Thunder
16:34expected in trying
16:36to take a 3-2
16:38decisive series lead
16:40over the Denver Nuggets.
16:41Will it be that
16:42comfortable of a ride
16:43tonight for the Thunder
16:44against the Nubs?
16:45Brian Fonseca
16:46here on this Tuesday
16:48to help us break down
16:50just that
16:50and then maybe
16:51a few thoughts
16:52in our next segment
16:53on the New York Knicks
16:54where their series
16:55stands against the Celtics
16:56in the odd NBA draft
16:58lottery last night
16:59as well.
17:00Fonseca,
17:01as always,
17:02we appreciate the time.
17:03Thanks for being here
17:03bright and early
17:04on a Tuesday.
17:05If you want a good
17:06rant out of me
17:07this morning,
17:07we could go to the lottery,
17:09but I know you don't
17:09want to start there,
17:10so we don't have to.
17:12We'll finish there
17:13after DRS is gone
17:15so he doesn't get
17:16to take part in it
17:17as he gets ready
17:18for radio,
17:18but you and I
17:19will have some fun
17:20ending out the show.
17:21Fonseca,
17:22let's start
17:22with our doubleheader
17:23of Game 5 action
17:24tonight in the NBA
17:26postseason.
17:26Let's start
17:27at the home
17:28of the East
17:28number one seed
17:29where Cleveland
17:30is trying to
17:31continue its season
17:33tonight.
17:34Down 3-1
17:35against the
17:35Indiana Pacers.
17:37Some injury
17:37concern around
17:38Donovan Mitchell.
17:40The Cavs have
17:40dealt with some
17:41health concern
17:42throughout this series.
17:44Everybody has
17:45a points prop
17:46tonight.
17:46That's Spida,
17:47Hunter,
17:48Garland,
17:49and Mobley.
17:50We'll see how
17:51effective they can be
17:52in staving off
17:53elimination,
17:54which the odds
17:55makers expect
17:56to be the case.
17:57Seven and a half
17:57points spread
17:58in favor of
17:59the Cavaliers
18:00at home Fonseca,
18:01despite trailing
18:02in this series
18:03by two games
18:04in the Pacers
18:05being an underdog
18:07winning outright
18:08in three
18:09of the first four.
18:11How do you
18:11approach Game 5
18:12tonight with
18:13Indiana having
18:14the opportunity
18:15to clinch its
18:16second consecutive
18:17berth in the
18:18Eastern Conference
18:18Finals?
18:19Before I get to
18:20some bets,
18:21I'll just say
18:21this sucks
18:22as somebody who
18:23really likes the
18:24Cavs this year
18:24and is
18:26basically defiant
18:27about they're
18:27not the Atlanta
18:28Hawks of
18:292015 with
18:3160 wins,
18:32even though
18:32Kenny Atkinson
18:33was an assistant
18:34on that team.
18:36They're not that
18:37team.
18:38I think the Cavs
18:38are legit.
18:39They came into
18:40the season without
18:40Darius Garland,
18:41and I think we
18:43may have underrated
18:44his impact,
18:45given that
18:46Darius Garland
18:47is an all-star,
18:48I think multiple
18:48times now,
18:49and is the
18:50table setter.
18:51He is a better
18:53playmaker than
18:54Donovan Mitchell
18:54from the
18:55standpoint of
18:55putting the
18:56ball in other
18:57people's hands.
18:58He's more of a
18:58quarterback of the
18:59offense.
18:59Donovan Mitchell
19:00is a top-ten
19:01player, I think,
19:02in the NBA.
19:03He is elite,
19:03he is awesome,
19:04but he is more
19:06of a scoring
19:07engine than
19:08just a passing
19:08engine.
19:09Darius Garland
19:10could do a
19:10little bit of
19:11both.
19:11He adds a
19:12dimension in a
19:13different way.
19:14He's their
19:14second or third
19:14best player from
19:15an offensive
19:16standpoint,
19:17depending on
19:17the night,
19:18and sometimes
19:18he's their
19:18best offensive
19:19player,
19:20depending on
19:20the night.
19:21So to come
19:22into the series
19:22shorthanded in
19:23that regard and
19:24then to lose
19:24game one and
19:25then lose
19:26Evan Mobley
19:26and DeAndre
19:27Hunter,
19:28you're without
19:28three of your
19:29five best players
19:30the second game
19:31of the series.
19:31And I think that
19:32sort of just
19:33changed how this
19:34entire thing went
19:35along with the
19:36fact that they
19:36blew game two
19:37despite all of
19:38that and were
19:38in a position to
19:39have this 1-1
19:41and potentially
19:42just be in a
19:43much, much
19:43better situation.
19:44You have this
19:452-2 instead
19:46going back to
19:47Cleveland, and I
19:48thought Cleveland
19:49would be more
19:49alive.
19:50That said,
19:50I mean,
19:51there's a world
19:51where they could
19:52at least force
19:52a game seven,
19:53and if you
19:53could force
19:53a game seven,
19:54anything could
19:54happen.
19:55Donovan Mitchell's
19:56health is the
19:57key.
19:57I'm actually on
19:58his over 27
19:59and a half points
19:59if he does play
20:00because I feel
20:01like in no world
20:02is that not,
20:03not in no world
20:04is that not going
20:04to happen because
20:05he'd get hurt
20:05again or whatever,
20:06but the volume
20:08should be there.
20:08He's going to try
20:09to will this team
20:10again like we saw
20:11previously in the
20:12series in games
20:13where he didn't
20:14get hurt.
20:15He's been going
20:15over consistently
20:16outside of, I
20:17think, no,
20:18including game one.
20:19I'm not remembering,
20:20but there was
20:21a stretch of
20:2133, 48, 43,
20:24something along
20:24those lines
20:25where he's just
20:25willing, 25,
20:2730 shot attempts,
20:28free throw attempts,
20:29just driving at all
20:30costs.
20:31He has to do it
20:32if nobody else
20:33is going to.
20:33Darius Garland's
20:34not in a position
20:34to do that
20:35and doesn't play
20:36that way anyway.
20:37He has a toe
20:37injury, which sucks.
20:39People have ever
20:40had like an injured
20:40toe and trying
20:41to move around
20:42on it,
20:43much less play
20:44NBA basketball
20:45on it in the
20:46playoffs.
20:46Like, it sucks.
20:48And Evan Mobley,
20:49obviously, he's
20:49doing what he can.
20:50He's not 100%.
20:51And Jared Allen,
20:53it's been a pretty
20:54tough series for him.
20:55Not from a raw
20:56numbers perspective,
20:57but like in other
20:58ways, Indiana's
20:59really hurt that
21:00matchup.
21:01So Indiana, I think
21:02a super legit,
21:02really good team.
21:03But I like Donovan
21:04Mitchell over on
21:05points, 27 and a
21:06half.
21:06I like Miles Turner
21:07over on points.
21:08Actually, I got that
21:09at 14 and a half.
21:10He's been getting
21:10that a little bit
21:11lately.
21:11I worry about the
21:12volume because
21:13sometimes I only have
21:14like eight, nine
21:14shots.
21:15But if the
21:16majority of them
21:17are threes, then
21:18okay.
21:18And my favorite
21:19bet on the board
21:19is Max Struess
21:20over two and a
21:21half threes.
21:22Max Struess is
21:23getting three-point
21:23volume regardless
21:24of who's out there.
21:25And he's going to
21:26get minutes regardless
21:27of who's out there.
21:28He only played
21:2822 minutes last
21:29game because they
21:30got their ass
21:30whooped.
21:31But Max Struess
21:32shot still seven
21:33threes in 22
21:34minutes, made three
21:35of them.
21:36And that's basically
21:37a three every third
21:38minute.
21:38So I think Max
21:39Struess getting
21:40three threes,
21:41like that should
21:42happen.
21:43It should happen.
21:44And he should get
21:44that three-point
21:45volume regardless
21:45of who plays.
21:47Yeah, specifically
21:48Donovan Mitchell,
21:48if he is healthy,
21:49we saw that early
21:50earlier where the
21:50team was down a
21:51couple starters and
21:52bench players and
21:52almost scores 50
21:53points here.
21:54He needs a big game
21:55tonight to extend
21:55that series, but
21:56also a series that
21:57regardless of a
21:58winner or loser
21:58tonight, we'll move
21:59on to game number
22:00six.
22:00That's the Nuggets
22:01and the Thunder
22:02here, Brian.
22:02Take a look at the
22:03spread.
22:03It's heavy.
22:04Minus 10 and a half
22:04as a favorite towards
22:05the home team, the
22:06Thunder here, the
22:07total at 221.
22:08I can't get a grasp
22:09on this game overall
22:11either way.
22:11Help me out, Brian,
22:12with what we're
22:13looking at tonight
22:13between the Nuggets
22:14and Thunder from
22:15your perspective.
22:16I'm struggling at
22:17this too, honestly,
22:18because like Oklahoma
22:19City is Oklahoma City,
22:21but Denver, I mean,
22:22they're super tough.
22:23Yeah.
22:23That's been the word
22:24that's been thrown
22:25around, but also like
22:26we haven't, and I try
22:28not to buy into this
22:29too much as it relates
22:30to certain playoff
22:30games, like, but in
22:32looking at like Celtics
22:33Knicks, for example,
22:34we hadn't had the
22:35Brunson game.
22:35We haven't had the
22:36Tatum game.
22:36We got them both last
22:38night.
22:38We haven't had a
22:39Nikola Jokic, like an
22:41absurd game from him
22:42yet, which tends to
22:44happen every series at
22:45least once, and he's
22:47been, it's not even
22:47that, he's been
22:48struggling this series
22:49in terms of offense,
22:50in terms of the
22:51turnovers.
22:52He has as many
22:53turnovers as he has
22:54assists, which you
22:55don't see from Nikola
22:56Jokic, and I wonder
22:57if this is going to be
22:58a game where he sort
22:59of snaps out of that.
23:00That being said,
23:00there's a couple of
23:01smart people that I
23:02trust and work with
23:03that are on Oklahoma
23:03City.
23:04This is a stay away
23:05from me because I
23:06have no, I just
23:07don't know.
23:08Live betting
23:09opportunities I think
23:10will present
23:10themselves.
23:11I do like the
23:12over rebounds and
23:12assists for Jalen
23:13Williams, nine and
23:14a half, and Shea
23:15goes Alexander for
23:1512 and a half.
23:17I do like those a
23:18little bit, and
23:18those, if Jalen
23:20Williams tends to
23:21get to 11, he
23:21hasn't the last
23:22couple of games, I
23:22think he could
23:23bounce back and
23:23never are.
23:25DRS, we bid you
23:26adieu, we send you
23:27to Moneyline, have a
23:28great show.
23:29Fonseca and I
23:30continue here on
23:31TEL up next.
23:33Now, on this
23:34Tuesday, with a
23:35doubleheader of game
23:36five NBA playoff
23:37action and one
23:38spot in the
23:39conference finals
23:40on the line, if
23:41Indiana can close
23:42out in only five
23:44over the Eastern
23:45Conference's number
23:46one seed in
23:47Cleveland, things
23:48could get wild,
23:49things could get
23:50weird, including
23:51our nightcap in
23:52Oklahoma City,
23:53between the
23:53Thunder and the
23:55Nuggets.
23:56Might it be as
23:56wild as last
23:57night?
23:58That remains to
23:59be seen.
24:00And Fonseca, that
24:01was not just our
24:02doubleheader of action
24:03in the dramatic
24:04comeback for the
24:05Knicks in game
24:05four against the
24:07Boston Celtics, but
24:08before either of our
24:09two playoff games
24:10began with the NBA
24:12draft lottery in
24:14Chicago.
24:14A 1.8% chance from
24:17the betting numbers
24:18plus 3,900.
24:21The Dallas Mavericks
24:22cash a very long shot
24:24ticket and rejoice with
24:26the number one overall
24:28pick winning the draft
24:29lottery in the Cooper
24:31flag sweepstakes.
24:33Fonseca, there is so
24:34much to say, so I'll
24:35ask you a very open
24:37ended question and
24:38take it whichever way
24:39you want.
24:40How in the world did
24:42the Mavericks end up
24:43with the first overall
24:44pick?
24:46Listen, the NBA cannot
24:47let this happen.
24:49Ultimately, that's
24:50where I'm at.
24:50Like, you just can't,
24:51I don't care if the
24:52lottery is real or
24:53not.
24:53I'm sure it's real and
24:55they actually did the
24:56lottery like in earnest
24:57and was like, all right,
24:59Dallas won it.
25:00It is what it is.
25:01You cannot let this
25:02happen because now
25:03the Reddit conspiracies
25:05I'm sure have already
25:06started.
25:07Everyone's going to be
25:07a conspiracy theorist
25:08now saying that the
25:09lottery is rigged, that
25:10Nico Harrison knew
25:11what was going to
25:12happen.
25:12Like, oh, they're
25:13going to trade Luka
25:13Don just because they
25:14know they're going to
25:14get Cooper flag and
25:15the number one overall
25:16pick.
25:17Like, you open yourself
25:18up to all this BS and
25:20if you're the league, you
25:20just cannot allow this.
25:21Like, you have to know
25:22the lottery results ahead
25:23of time and you have to
25:25just be like, no, do
25:26it again.
25:27Like, just do the
25:27randomization again.
25:29Like, Dallas cannot win
25:30this given what just
25:31happened.
25:32It's, I legitimately
25:33don't think it's a good
25:34look for the league
25:35right now.
25:36That Dallas of all
25:37teams, they trade Luka
25:38and then they luck
25:38into Cooper flag.
25:39And if you were a
25:40Mavs fan that was
25:41like, hey, I'm done
25:42with the organization.
25:43I wonder what you do
25:44now that you're getting
25:45Cooper flag, who I
25:46don't think is going to
25:47be as good as Luka
25:47Doncic, but it's
25:49probably going to be
25:49really good if you've
25:51seen him play before.
25:52And then on top of
25:53that, you also like,
25:55this was like the worst
25:56outcome in terms of
25:58like, deserve or
25:59whatever the case may
26:01be, because you have
26:02the Spurs getting the
26:03number two overall pick
26:04a year after getting
26:05Victor Wimbanyama, a
26:06team who's already
26:07won the lottery
26:07multiple times.
26:08We've got David
26:09Robinson and Tim
26:10Duncan, and it's
26:11getting the number
26:11two overall pick.
26:12And it's probably
26:13going to be Dylan
26:13Harper.
26:14It surprised me if
26:15it's not, if it's
26:16anybody else at this
26:17point, but they could
26:19use that number two
26:20overall pick to
26:21potentially get
26:21Giannis onto the
26:22Kumpo.
26:22So you mean to tell
26:23me we could be in a
26:24world where a front
26:26court of Giannis
26:26onto the Kumpo and
26:28Victor Wimbanyama
26:28exists.
26:30That's crazy to me.
26:32And then you have
26:32Philly getting the
26:33third overall pick
26:34that can't happen
26:35either.
26:35What have they done
26:36to deserve the
26:38number three overall
26:39pick?
26:39Now, if they get
26:40Ace Bailey, fine,
26:41because I'm not an
26:41Ace Bailey guy, but
26:43if they get, I know
26:45Big Ten, like, you
26:46know, we can talk
26:47about it, but like
26:48with, with the 76ers,
26:50it's like you got
26:51Tyrese Maxey.
26:52I don't know what's
26:53left of Joel Embiid at
26:54this point.
26:54We'll see.
26:56And then as it
26:57relates to everyone
26:58else on their team,
26:59Paul George is
27:00declining.
27:00So I guess, I guess
27:01that's fine, but it
27:02just, it feels like
27:04bad karma won last
27:05night.
27:06And then Charlotte
27:06gets number four.
27:07So it is what it is.
27:08It really did,
27:09Fonseca, right?
27:10Because not just the
27:11Dallas Mavericks,
27:12obviously that is the
27:13headline and should
27:14stand out, getting the
27:15first overall selection.
27:17The Spurs weren't
27:18necessarily one of the
27:19top five prices or top
27:20five chances to earn
27:22that number one
27:23overall pick.
27:24So the fact they
27:24moved up the draft
27:25order at number two
27:27in the Sixers,
27:28despite a miserable
27:29season and having the
27:31fifth best chance to
27:32earn that first overall
27:33pick to stay within the
27:35top six, to hold on to
27:36their first round
27:37selection and end up
27:38number three.
27:40Like, come on now for
27:41all three of those teams
27:43to go one, two, three
27:44is insane.
27:45I think our producer
27:46extraordinaire, Joe
27:47Frizo crunched the
27:48numbers.
27:49It was like 0.0013%
27:52for those three teams
27:54in order to be drafting
27:55first, second, and third
27:58overall.
27:59It is insane.
28:01And whether you want to
28:02yell rigged, whether you
28:04want to dive into the
28:05deepest of conspiracy
28:06theories, I think what
28:08Fonseca said kind of hits
28:10the nail on the head.
28:11It is not a good look,
28:13at least based on the
28:14optics of it, for the
28:16NBA, its commissioner,
28:17Adam Silver, and the
28:19league office to have
28:20this be the case.
28:21Do it like the NHL
28:22draft lottery.
28:24Do the actual lottery
28:25selection live on
28:26television, fun TV,
28:29honesty, and transparency.
28:31And we have no issues
28:33except for Nico Harrison
28:34getting to celebrate.
28:36The Mavericks fan base,
28:38they get to celebrate,
28:39not the front office.
28:41Ryan Fonseca, as always,
28:43we appreciate your time.
28:44Thank you for being here
28:45on this Tuesday morning.
28:47That does it for the
28:48early line.
28:49We return tomorrow,
28:508 a.m.
28:51Eastern on a Wednesday.
28:52Talk to you.