- 5/18/2025
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00:00We have reached the stage of the NBA postseason where now doubleheader is kind of a thing of the past.
00:06It is basically going to be one lone NBA playoff game for the rest of this postseason
00:12because two of our four second round sets are done in five games,
00:17but still two more series to be determined, including in our only playoff game tonight at Altitude in Denver.
00:25It's the Nuggets on the brink of elimination, but with home court advantage.
00:29Against the one seed out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder trying to get to the Western Conference Finals.
00:36Just one win away.
00:38An updated number of four and a half in favor of OKC.
00:42We'll get to that in just a matter of moments.
00:45But Donnie, you've been pretty convinced that based on what we have seen here in this series,
00:51that Denver has kept things competitive enough to at least force a game seven
00:57that would require an outright win in mile high tonight.
01:02Do you still believe on the morning of game six, the Nuggets can get that done?
01:07I do think the Nuggets can get that done.
01:09But more interesting is can they get it done within the spread if they don't win the game outright?
01:14Now understand this too.
01:15Like there has been a blowout in this game.
01:17Was it game number two in OKC?
01:18You know, absolutely sound beating.
01:21Exactly.
01:21Sound beating of the Nuggets.
01:23But after that, they've been very good.
01:25And also understand this.
01:26You're on your home court here.
01:27You're very good.
01:27It's elevation outside of the crowd.
01:29It's the biggest advantage in the NBA where they do play.
01:32You do also have what they feel is the best player overall in the NBA.
01:36Oklahoma City is going to count to that with SGA.
01:38Who's probably going to get the MVP this year.
01:40But you are getting points as well, which is the key factor.
01:42Like I talked about yesterday when we talk about take a look and say, OK, is it closing
01:46time for the Knicks to go on the road there for the Boston Celtics?
01:48And you go, you know what?
01:49The Celtics are favored by four and a half points.
01:51I didn't like that.
01:52I thought the Knicks would win outright.
01:53But I still would have probably taken the Celtics if then they were getting four and
01:56a half points at home, which they were laying.
01:58So I look at this again and say, well, it's a little bit different now because now the Nuggets
02:02are at home getting the four and a half points as opposed to last night.
02:05The Celtics were favored at home.
02:06It's a little bit different of a mindset.
02:07If you are, again, just looking at the line, that's an OKC line.
02:12It is.
02:13I understand FanDuel here in New Jersey, Ben, opened up at five points and it's dropped
02:16to four and a half.
02:16I'm interested to see once, you know, the betting public gets home and rains in on this
02:20game at 830 as a tip tonight.
02:22But if I look at the line, it is telling you thunder.
02:25But I still want to take the Denver Nuggets because I do think there's a chance that the
02:29Nuggets can win this game.
02:30And if they don't, it's probably going to be within a few possessions, which will put you
02:35right in the crosshairs of that four and a half.
02:37The Denver Nuggets in the opening five games of this second round series have been the
02:42underdog in every one.
02:44They have been at least a five point underdog in every game so far.
02:48This the shortest spread currently at four and a half in favor of the Thunder.
02:53The Denver Nuggets have covered in four of the five games in this series, of course, including
02:58outright victories in dramatic fashion in game number one, down by 13 points in the final
03:03eight and a half minutes of the game or so rallying in that fourth quarter in OKC and
03:08in OT in game number three at altitude four and one against the spread.
03:14The Nuggets, Oklahoma City DRS, who won their opening game against the Grizzlies by 52 in
03:19the opening round.
03:20That second game by 19.
03:22They were a 13 point favorite and both have only covered one time in their last seven games.
03:27It was that 43 point route in OKC to even up this series at a game of peace in game number
03:34two over Denver and the Thunder, not just the best regular season team in the NBA, a 68 and
03:4014 mark, but by far the best cover team in the association throughout the regular season
03:45as well.
03:47This young core for Oklahoma City trying to get to uncharted territory.
03:51That would be an appearance in the Western Conference finals.
03:55But Oklahoma City as a franchise, and I'm talking about in the 17 years specifically in the
04:01state of Oklahoma after leading Seattle since the 08-09 season, this would be the fifth appearance
04:07to the Western Conference finals, but the first DRS since the end of the KD Russ era that came
04:12to a close, of course, in 2015-16.
04:16They were leading 3-1 in the Western Conference finals that year against the Golden State Warriors,
04:21only to see Steph, Klay, and Dre come back.
04:25And then Kevin Durant, of course, joining Golden State the year following.
04:29This is a big moment for this Thunder group because, Donnie, that has been the question
04:35about OKC, the one seed in the Western Conference each of the past two years.
04:40Do they have the playoff might?
04:42Have they learned from their postseason lumps?
04:44Have they gained that critical learning experience to capitalize, at least in games four and five,
04:50in dogfights in the fourth quarter?
04:53OKC has come out still standing.
04:55To me, that's been a lot of growth, and I think benefits the Thunder in this game six
05:00matchup, trying to clinch this second round series, get to the Western Conference finals,
05:05and do so on the road at altitude.
05:08Yeah, we were extremely close from that game number five, fourth quarter lead here for the
05:12Denver Nuggets, where they would be going home into game number six in their own building,
05:14looking to close out the Thunder.
05:16But you're right.
05:16Credit the Thunder for being scrappy, not giving up on that game, and outlasting the
05:20Denver Nuggets.
05:21And this would be another sign of growth.
05:23You are correct if they go on the road against a previous champion and close them out in their
05:27own building with no need for a game number seven.
05:30Now, probably will they win game number seven, be heavily favored?
05:33Yes.
05:33But nobody wants to go to a game number seven.
05:35Crazy things happen.
05:36Players that normally step up, step up.
05:39This guy hits two threes a game.
05:40He hits seven triples in a game number seven.
05:42We've seen those unsung heroes step up.
05:44You don't want that if you're OKC.
05:46You want to handle your business.
05:47And also, from an attack point where OKC's not the dog by eight points, and I'm like,
05:51hey, wonder if they can play a good game.
05:53They're the favorite, and rightfully so.
05:55They're the better team here.
05:56But it's just hard to say, boy, I'm going to pass up the Denver Nuggets and the Koli
06:01Jokic and Jamal Murray and that altitude on their home court to not win this game or at
06:05least cover the four and a half.
06:07But you do have a heavy public support here for the Denver Nuggets at home, which sometimes
06:11can get you in trouble.
06:12But if I'm just looking optimistically, you had a game two nights ago that we talked about.
06:16The Pacers on the road.
06:17Look at that line.
06:18Ridiculous.
06:19You got to just read the line and take the Cavs.
06:21No, outright by the Pacers.
06:22And then you saw last night.
06:24Hey, look at that.
06:24Just read the line.
06:25It was the Celtics.
06:26That game went the direction.
06:27I wonder where this game goes tonight where the public is saying, no, no, no.
06:30The Nuggets at home getting points, which again, optically makes a lot of sense.
06:34But again, those numbers, Ben, from the FanDuel Sportsbook aren't just plucked out of thin air.
06:39They're there for a reason.
06:4172% of the money on the spread backing the home underdog.
06:4668% of the volume of bets backing the Nuggets, the home underdog.
06:52If not tonight, if Denver at a plus 162 money line price can extend this series to a game
06:58seven, we expect the Thunder to be a hefty favorite.
07:01They have been a double digit favorite.
07:02And all three games at home, they only covered in game two.
07:06Of course, they lost outright in game number one.
07:09They're a minus 1500 series outright favorite to just beat the Nuggets in one of these final
07:16two games.
07:17A little bit more on that series.
07:19Draft lottery compensation next.
07:21One NBA playoff game tonight.
07:23It's a closeout opportunity for Oklahoma City, albeit on the road at the home of the Denver
07:29Nuggets.
07:30Quickly back to the total DRS.
07:32217 and a half is the number now.
07:34First two games of this set way over games, three through five way under our game.
07:40Three total was 232 and even in overtime did not come particularly close.
07:46Neither team scoring more than 92 points in game four.
07:50In game five, we stayed under as well.
07:53217 and a half the number tonight.
07:55If the Nuggets keep this game close, what does that mean for the over under?
07:59Again, the Nuggets keep it close.
08:02I think it's more in their realm, which means the game is a little bit tighter to the vest.
08:06Use that home court advantage and you sort of get after.
08:08But understand this, the thought process behind usually simplicity, Ben, is it's a closeout
08:13game situation.
08:14I lean towards the under.
08:15Well, good luck if you did that last night.
08:16You went 0-2 or if you're just playing off of that theory.
08:18So 217 isn't a high number.
08:20Granted, yesterday's games, correct me if I'm wrong here.
08:22I think we had a 208 and a 203, so much, much lower than 217 and a half right now.
08:27By the way, other outlets showing 216 and a half.
08:30So those numbers certainly trending towards lower.
08:32But for me, if you're asking, a higher scoring game probably favors OKC, a lower scoring game,
08:38which means Denver was about their business, slowing the game down, making the plays they
08:42needed to and outlasting the thunder, which is probably what they will have to do tonight.
08:47Yeah, DRS, it is interesting, right?
08:49Because the Nuggets offense has really stalled the last few games.
08:52It was Nikola Jokic struggling.
08:54Games two through four, only 33%.
08:56Much more efficient, of course, in game number five.
09:0045 points, 17 of 25 from the floor.
09:04But everybody else, not all that great.
09:0632% for everybody else from Denver.
09:09What is Jokic's points prop tonight?
09:1128 and a half, 14 and a half rebounds, seven and a half dimes.
09:16He is not at a great assist series in terms of dotting those dimes all around the place.
09:22Pretty sure he has not even recorded a triple-double unheard of out of Nikola Jokic in the opening
09:27five games of this series.
09:29Drumroll, please.
09:31What is Shea Gilders, Alexander's points prop?
09:34Somewhere around 30, 29 and a half.
09:37What did SGA have in the game?
09:39Five victory, 31 points.
09:41He has scored 31-plus in three of the five games, but never more than 34.
09:47Yeah, it's what he does, man.
09:48It's just incredible where he has that sort of governor on him that says,
09:50don't you go too fast here and go over 35 miles per hour.
09:53Like, no, he's going to be right between 30 to 34 points on a night-to-night basis.
09:58And you need him to step up because that's your superstar player.
10:01That's your MVP in a closeout situation against a former three-time MVP.
10:05That's what you have to do.
10:06But for me, you start to slow it down and say, what makes sense in this game?
10:09Because you know me, Ben, you can look at the superstars, 29 and a half for SGA.
10:13You can look at the superstars, Nicole Jokic, 28 and a half.
10:16They're expected to get their points.
10:17But I'm telling you right now, if you said, Donnie, give me one player,
10:20one player that you're trying to match up tonight that you think needs to have a good game
10:23and will, Jamal Murray, 21 and a half points is his price.
10:28Sometimes the correlations, Ben, we talk about aren't just about the analysis
10:31of how the game plays out, but just keeping it simple by going,
10:34you tell me Jamal Murray gets 14 tonight and you tell me how the Denver Nuggets do.
10:38They're not going to be competitive if he does that.
10:40Now, can Nicole Jokic do a 40-20 tonight?
10:43It doesn't matter.
10:43Yes.
10:44But Jamal Murray going off early, getting that stroke down,
10:46and also understanding he's got to shoot 20-plus times.
10:49I really like Jamal Murray tonight, 21 and a half.
10:52He has to have a good night if Denver wants to win and or at least stay close in this one for me.
10:5828 points for Murray in game five.
11:01Not overly efficient, but still him and Jokic combining for 72.
11:04And in a loss, you can either look optimistically or maybe glass half empty.
11:10Oklahoma City, four and a half point favorite tonight.
11:12So they're favoring game six in a closeout spot.
11:15If we do see a game seven in OKC where the Thunder have been at least a double-digit favorite,
11:20obviously the odds makers expect Oklahoma City to win it in a big way.
11:25But again, we're at game six on a road game for the Thunder.
11:30A minus 1,500 price on OKC seems a little bit outlandish to win this series.
11:35Maybe some value with the Denver Nuggets.
11:38Let's talk quickly, DRS, about the NBA draft.
11:41Cooper Flagg, a minus 100,000 favorite to go first overall.
11:45Thank goodness.
11:46We got the report yesterday.
11:48Dallas is not going to trade the pick in draft Cooper Flagg.
11:52He is a generational talent.
11:53No duh, Nico Harrison, but it is Nico Harrison.
11:57The conversation is really a two and three.
11:59Dylan Harper is a minus 2,400 favorite to go second overall to San Antonio.
12:04But do the Spurs really need him with Steph Castle and De'Aaron Fox there?
12:10Maybe not, but that is seemingly the right pick.
12:14What do you want your Sixers to do quickly, DRS, at number three overall?
12:18Yeah, I haven't really gone down the path of then I know the two Rutgers kids
12:21and they were always supposed to be in the top three in the draft outside of Cooper Flagg.
12:25So you're probably leaning towards Ace Bailey, which has a lot of high upside,
12:28which is like what you want to see out of your guys as opposed to a completely polished product coming into the NBA.
12:33But the VJ Edgecombe, certainly a good scorer.
12:35I don't think they can lose in the three spot, which is what I'm happy about.
12:38They got into the top six.
12:40That's good enough.
12:41Hour three next.
12:42One lone playoff game in the association on this Thursday night.
12:47It's a closeout opportunity for OKC on the road in Denver.
12:52It's the Thunder.
12:53It's the Nuggets.
12:54It's game number six of this second round series.
12:57The Thunder DRS up 3-2 in this series and a four and a half point road favorite in game six.
13:03A total that stands at 217 and a half.
13:07We broke down this game earlier to end out hour number two.
13:10We do so once again here in hour number three to set the stage for this Thursday evening.
13:16DRS, you've been pretty solidified in your stance that you think the Nuggets can do enough to win this game on their own home floor
13:24to force a decisive winner take all game seven for a spot in the Western Conference Finals.
13:30If so, how does Denver get that done getting four and a half points at home tonight?
13:35It's got to be the big boys, man.
13:36It's got to be Nikola Jokic with a monster game.
13:38It's got to be Jamal Murray stepping up.
13:40You've got to get the Christian Browns of the world chipping in with, you know, double-digit points here, low teams.
13:44You've got to get Russell Westbrook on that energy coming off the bench to give you one of those 12-6-6 type performances
13:49through about 25 to 30 minutes here.
13:52You need all hands on deck.
13:53And also, you need OKC to be a little bit off.
13:56Why?
13:56Because it's a better team.
13:57Like, if both of these teams bring their A game, it's going to be OKC.
14:00B game, C game, it's going to be OKC.
14:03You need to play your A game while Oklahoma City is playing your B, maybe C-plus type of situational game
14:08with Shea Gildress Alexander.
14:10You tell me before the game starts, Shea Gildress Alexander's at 24 points.
14:13Yeah, Denver's going back for a game number seven at OKC.
14:16That's the way I see it playing out.
14:18Now, we look at the point spread in this, right?
14:19We say to ourselves, OK, you're probably asking for Denver to win.
14:22Before enough is a big enough margin where late-game heroics, three-point shot goes down,
14:27you know, one, two, or three, shot at the buzzer, you don't make it, you lose by two.
14:30I get that.
14:32But I am going to be hard-pressed to say, I don't know if OKC can walk into Denver tonight.
14:37Should I say I'll be surprised?
14:38And they win by double digits?
14:40Like, if OKC wins, fine, two, four, six, eight points, that makes some sense.
14:44But for Denver to be at home tonight and get pasted by double digits, I just don't see that.
14:50So that's why I think the Denver Nuggets have a legitimate chance.
14:52And would I be surprised in the fourth quarter if the Nuggets have the lead?
14:55No.
14:56That's what the anticipation is.
14:57They had the lead in game number five of a pivotal game, which you know the winner of
15:01game number five is what, like 80% of the playoffs, they end up winning the rest of that series.
15:05So upper hand OKC.
15:07But I figure you get a great punch tonight.
15:09And I gladly take the points tonight with the Denver Nuggets.
15:13It's a good point, DRS.
15:14Again, four and a half is not the largest spread.
15:17You would think the winner of the game outright more than likely to cover the number tonight.
15:22However, outside of the 43-point route in OKC in game number two, the Thunder handling
15:28the Nuggets to even this series at a game apiece, every other game, the four others have been
15:34decided by single digits.
15:36Even in OKC in game five, the Thunder were a double-digit favorite.
15:40They won by seven, which has benefited Denver as the dog.
15:43The Nuggets four and one against the spread, an underdog of at least five and a half, six
15:48points in all five games so far.
15:50So this four and a half point number in an elimination game tonight, shortest spread we
15:56have seen in this series.
15:57Also, the lowest total we have seen in this set at 217 and a hook.
16:02Again, game number three, not all that long ago in Denver, pregame over under 232.
16:09Even in OT, that game stayed well under.
16:12Our last three games, games three through five, have all hit the under.
16:17I wonder what that total looks like tonight in an elimination game where Oklahoma City is
16:24trying to prove its playoff might.
16:26And the Nuggets understand this scenario as an NBA champion just two seasons ago.
16:32Again, DRS, we mentioned it.
16:33The Thunder have been in Oklahoma City now as a franchise for 17 years.
16:37In the KD, Russ, and even James Harden era, they had reached the Western Conference Finals
16:42four times in a six-year span, but not since KD's final year in Oklahoma City in 2015-16.
16:49For this young core, under Mark Dagnall, coaching Shea Gildas, Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen
16:55Williams, they have never been to the Conference Finals.
16:58They are one win away from doing so tonight.
17:01But with that opportunity comes the pressure.
17:03We will see how the Thunder, who have handled these learning experiences and have exhibited
17:09a ton of growth throughout this second-round series, how OKC deals with that in Denver in Game 6.
17:15Now, you're right, and that's a big notion, too.
17:17And also understand this.
17:18They're already into the playoffs.
17:19It's round number two.
17:20You say, well, how about their closeout situation against Memphis?
17:22Went on the road.
17:23Closer games.
17:24John Morant was down.
17:25But they won Game 3, which then gave them the closeout Game 4, which they won in Memphis.
17:29They said, oh, you know what?
17:31Closer on the road is really hard.
17:32It's easier to do it at home in Game 5.
17:34They handled their business.
17:35This is their first opportunity in round number two in a closeout game to handle their business once again on the road,
17:41which is the sign of a team that would be maturing.
17:43You tell me OKC enters into the playoffs as the number one overall seed, and we say, yes, they're the most talented team.
17:49They have the best regular season.
17:50But what have they done in the playoffs?
17:51Because they're not used to being in this position.
17:53You know what gives me confidence moving forward?
17:56Closing out teams on the road in their own building, just like a team like the Denver Nuggets,
18:01that will give me even more cause to back OKC moving forward in the Western Conference Finals
18:06and into the NBA Finals if they make it.
18:07But tonight, again, it will take a big performance by the Nuggets because they're underdogs to win this outright.
18:12But this game will be competitive.
18:14No way, shape, or form for me, which I could be wrong,
18:16that there could be a blowout victory tonight for OKC on the road in Denver.
18:20And that's my stance on that.
18:22The 217 and a half, it is tough.
18:23If I had to lean towards the over, I'd probably go that direction.
18:26But I think the side is a little bit better for me.
18:28Denver really brings it tonight, which I think you could say, Ben, you're going full game,
18:32you're going first quarter, you're going first half.
18:34I'll tell you right now, like, yes, Denver down 10 at the break, could come back and win that game.
18:38But that's not the game plan for the Denver Nuggets.
18:40Win the first quarter, win the second quarter, win the third quarter, just like they did at OKC.
18:44But, hey, we're at home now.
18:45We should be able to close the door in the fourth.
18:47OKC, a two-and-a-half point favorite for the opening half tonight in Denver.
18:53217 and a half DRS, again, nearly a 15-point difference from the last time we started things in Denver
18:59at altitude in game number three.
19:01You would almost just think, based on handicapping numbers, is that too steep of a drop-off?
19:07Based on what we are learning from the betting stats on FanDuel,
19:0972% of the money in terms of the spread, backing the Nuggets as the home dog.
19:1568% of the overall bets, backing the Nuggets as the home dog.
19:20And yet, OKC remains a four-and-a-half point favorite.
19:24Let's talk about the superstars, of course, on display tonight in the MVP battle.
19:28The guy that has won three of the previous four seasons,
19:31and the guy that is more than likely to win for the first time in his career this year,
19:36that being Shea Gilgis-Alexander, 31-plus in three of the five.
19:4031 exactly for SGA in that decisive Game 5 win.
19:4444 points out of Nikoli Jokic in Game 5 in OKC.
19:49He was great in Game 1.
19:51He was great in Game 5.
19:52Pretty mediocre by his own lofty standards in Games 2 through 4.
19:57The number that stands out most to me, DRS, seven-and-a-half assists,
20:01not for Gilgis-Alexander, but for Nikoli Jokic.
20:04He has not come close to that number yet in this series.
20:08His high six assists, that is it.
20:11Whatever OKC is doing defensively against the Joker,
20:15they are taking away his ability to distribute the basketball.
20:20Yeah, that little simple handoff at the top of the key that leaves the wide-open jump shots,
20:23which he steals like five assists a game.
20:25Certainly not looking forward to that or not letting that allow or happen.
20:28But also, you're still not getting a break on this.
20:30Hey, Jokic doesn't really get triple-doubles.
20:32What is he up to, a 10-to-win price?
20:33No, it's plus 2-to-1.
20:35Like, it's barely anything.
20:36Like, you expect the assists and the rebounds to always be there
20:39because the 10 points is just about a formality at that point.
20:41But it hasn't happened.
20:42A double-double for Nikoli Jokic, which he's missed in this series,
20:46is minus 1,400 at this point.
20:48If you want to go SGA for having a monster night,
20:5018-to-1 on the triple-double.
20:52Has he had a triple-double in the playoffs yet?
20:54I don't really remember him being a huge triple-double guy,
20:56but hence the 18-to-1 price if he does that,
20:58if you're just looking for MVP versus MVP to have a monster game tonight.
21:03He has not had a triple-double in the postseason.
21:05Nikoli Jokic should have three in that seven-game series
21:08against the Clippers in the opening round,
21:10yet to record a triple-double here in the five games in round number two.
21:15Donnie, you highlighted Jamal Murray earlier.
21:18His points prop, 21-and-a-half.
21:20Is there a way the Nuggets win outright to save their season
21:23and extend the series without a big night for Murray?
21:26Maybe, but that's a key number tonight.
21:28Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen.
21:30But by the way, if Jamal Murray scores 14 points and the Nuggets win,
21:33I might be running to the wagon right now to get on Denver for game number seven
21:37saying, like, what did Jokic do?
21:3850-30-20?
21:40Like, how would that be possible for Murray to have a terrible game and then win?
21:43Somebody's got to step up.
21:44And also, how about this little sneaky tidbit here?
21:46Russell Westbrook over three-and-a-half rebounds tonight.
21:48Brings that energy.
21:50That's a plus-110 price here, boys, at the FanDuel's.
21:52You're kind of a sneaky big Westbrook fan.
21:56Yeah, biggest losing player of all time.
21:58But we'll get stats, man.
21:59We'll get stats.
22:01TV Tom, next.
22:02When it starts at altitude, the Denver Nuggets, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
22:06The Thunder one went away from their first appearance
22:09in the Western Conference Finals since 2016.
22:12The Nuggets a home underdog and yet trying to stave up elimination tonight.
22:16Four-and-a-half point spread in favor of OKC.
22:20Shortest number in favor of the Thunder so far in this second-round series.
22:25And a total of 217-and-a-half.
22:28Vecchio, we often ask you to read the numbers and tell us what the odds are telling you
22:33about how this game is played tonight.
22:36So please do just that.
22:37What is the spread?
22:38The total telling you about this elimination game at altitude in game number six.
22:43So, like you said, you know, shortest number that we have on OKC.
22:47I got to say that I don't think we're going to start off this game as we did a couple games ago,
22:51where it was like 19-8 in the first quarter.
22:53I don't think we're going to see that.
22:55I don't think we're going to see in the most recent game.
22:57It's going to fall somewhere in between.
22:58I think this game actually presents a lot of opportunities for live betting.
23:01Where ultimately, I think the Thunder are the better team.
23:03I think a lot of people would agree with that.
23:05And I'm hoping that the Nuggets actually get out to a hot start because, you know,
23:08grabbing the Thunder at minus one or plus one, somewhere close to even money,
23:12even on the money line, I think that's a really, really interesting opportunity tonight.
23:16So I don't like the four-and-a-half.
23:17I want a minus one, minus one-and-a-half in game.
23:20You know, hope for that early start from Denver.
23:22They come out with the crowd behind them, and then you just grab OKC live.
23:25I frankly think there's a way to play it both.
23:27You could take Denver pregame.
23:28You get that four-and-a-half or five number, wherever it may settle.
23:30Then you grab OKC in game.
23:32I think, like, tonight is a really, really interesting spot to do.
23:35So I think there's a lot of also opportunity when it comes to the secondary and tertiary players.
23:39I don't want to be looking at SGA.
23:41I don't want to be looking at Jokic.
23:42Let's look to some of those other players where I think there's some real value tonight.
23:45Yeah, let's take a look to it.
23:46SGA, 29-and-a-half, as well as taking a look here also at Nicole Jokic, 28-and-a-half.
23:51There are no discounts here.
23:52We're expecting them to have big game performances tonight, and rightfully so.
23:55One's a three-time form MVP.
23:57One's looking to become an MVP for the first time at SGA.
23:59And you're right.
24:00OKC is the better team.
24:02So if we are looking at other props outside of the two top guns on each team, Tom, where are we going tonight in this game?
24:08Yeah, let's go to Chet Holmgren, under 14-and-a-half points.
24:12And, you know, I'm going to say he's having a good series.
24:13It's obviously not the easiest matchup for him.
24:16But, you know, shooting 40% or 43% from the field is good.
24:19He's not knocking them down from downtown.
24:20It really comes down to a couple things.
24:22A, he's been in a little bit of foul trouble in some of these games, not every single game.
24:26And B, we're not seeing a massive volume of shots from him, right?
24:28So seeing 40% from the field is great.
24:30But when we're only seeing 8, 9, 10, maybe 12 field goal attempts, like, he has to be really, really efficient and stay out of foul trouble in order for him to get to 15 or 16 points to push this over.
24:41So, you know, when we're seeing, you know, 4 of 9, like, in theory, OK, 4 of 9, that's great.
24:46But that's not getting us to the point where we need to be, that we can rely on him to get to 15 points.
24:50So I see this game as a 2-0-5 kind of final score total.
24:55It's going to fall the under, and there's not too many players doing a whole lot of scoring tonight.
24:59Three consecutive unders from Game 3 on here in this series.
25:04Game 3's total, Vecchio, 2-32, even in that extra session in OT, stayed well under.
25:11Big story for the Thunder and the Nuggets in Game 4, really both teams, frankly, atrocious offensively.
25:17SGA was the only guy in the starting five for Mark Dagnall and company who scored more than 10 points.
25:23Much more balanced, all five starters in Game 5, scoring at least 12 points in that decisive game that gave OKC the series advantage and an opportunity to win it tonight.
25:35The Thunder are a road favorite even at altitude, Vecchio.
25:39So do you believe tonight it comes to a close?
25:42And if not, if we see a Game 7, what do you think the atmosphere would look like back in Oklahoma City?
25:49Because the odds maker is telling us, whether it's tonight or in a couple days in a decisive Game 7,
25:55the Thunder are going to win this series and get to the Western Conference Finals.
25:59So I do think the Thunder are going to close out tonight.
26:02However, if they don't, you know, what would be the course or what would be like the things play out for a Denver?
26:08How do they get it done?
26:09I really think it comes down to Michael Porter Jr.
26:12And I'm not going to say rely solely on him because we've seen Aaron Gordon have a really strong postseason.
26:17You know, we have Jokic, we have Murray.
26:18But Michael Porter Jr. has been a player that's been remarkably inconsistent.
26:21Two, three, four points in some of these games.
26:23Some of these games he's up at 20 points.
26:24I think it comes down to him knocking down threes because he's going to have the time and space to shoot them.
26:28So if Jokic, obviously the defense is going to him, they're going to worry about Murray.
26:31But if we look to MPJ, over one and a half threes, that's sitting at like minus 106 there at bat.
26:36If he can knock down some threes and provide some consistent secondary scoring for the Nuggets, I think they will have a shot.
26:42I'm not going to say like he is the determining factor tonight.
26:45He is a big, big part of their offense.
26:48One single game in the NBA.
26:49Looking forward to tonight to see how it breaks down.
26:51But if we do re-rack the NBA playoffs right now at the NBA Finals odds here at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
26:56Tom, OKC, heavy favorite, even though they haven't moved on yet, at a minus 140 price.
27:00And then you're getting those big dogs out there.
27:02The Knicks, 6-1.
27:03The T-Wolves, 6-1.
27:04The Pacers, 7-1.
27:05The Celtics, 15-1, which again, Tom, you agree with me.
27:08It should be $275 million to one to win a championship because they ain't never winning anything without Tatum.
27:14Your thoughts, please.
27:15I think the Pacers present the most value and a realistic shot at this point where, listen, the Knicks are a good team.
27:22But I will continuously say the same thing.
27:24And these non-Brunson minutes are such an issue for them.
27:27And the consistent scoring, or the lack of consistent scoring, is really, really tough when you're going up against a team like the Pacers.
27:34So if the Pacers were to get past them, you get a 7-1 ticket.
27:37It does leave you soon on opportunities to hedge out.
27:39You can take the Thunder at that point, presuming that they do move past the Timberwolves.
27:44Knicks and Pacers co-favorites.
27:46Vecchio in the East at plus 125.
27:49But is there some life for the Celtics?
27:51Quickly, game six tomorrow night in MSG.
27:54What's your favorite look for a decisive game inside the Garden?
27:58It's going to be going to Peyton Pritchard, over 14 and a half points.
28:01Throughout the regular season, he was at 20 points per 36 minutes when Tatum was off the court.
28:05And he can knock down some threes.
28:07So he's going to come off the bench.
28:08He'll take double-digit four attempts.
28:09If he knocks down some threes, I think the Celtics can have a shot to force a game seven.
28:13So he's going to take double-digit four attempts.
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