00:00Hello, how are you?
00:05Bakeries,
00:08building sites,
00:10construction sites,
00:13and even classrooms.
00:15There's few places the leaders haven't been.
00:17Yes, Chef Prime Minister!
00:21Once an afterthought in campaigns,
00:23Victoria is back in the political spotlight in 2025.
00:28So why Victoria?
00:29Labor has long dominated the state.
00:31It holds 24 of 38 seats,
00:33and Liberals hold just two in metropolitan Melbourne.
00:36Simply put, if Peter Dutton wants to become Prime Minister,
00:39he must pick up seats here.
00:42Both major parties agree that Labor's three most vulnerable seats
00:46are Aston, Chisholm and McEwan.
00:48That area has been a hotspot and includes fast-growing suburbs,
00:52a key target of the Coalition's new strategy.
00:55The outer burbs, like here in Melbourne's north-west,
00:58are high on the list of Liberal targets, despite big Labor margins.
01:02That's because there's high cost of living and mortgage stress,
01:05and Labor was unusually nervous about places like Hawke, Gorton,
01:10and even Bruce.
01:11That's because after years of Labor,
01:13some voters feel like they've been left behind.
01:16Nationally, Labor's polling has improved throughout the campaign.
01:21That's true too in Victoria.
01:23But there's some caveats.
01:24You can pretty much ignore the statewide swing on Saturday night
01:27because this campaign has targeted different communities in different ways.
01:31So Labor could lose big chunks of votes in the outer suburbs,
01:34but elsewhere in Melbourne it could improve its position.
01:37The ALP is now targeting the Liberals Michael Succa in Deakin and Keith Wollahan in Menzies.
01:44The Liberals have sought to capitalise on the unpopularity of the state Labor government,
01:48and those hopes have driven ambitions to pick up seats across Melbourne.
01:54Away from the urban fringe in Kooyong and Goldstein,
01:57the Liberals are trying to win the seats back from Teal Independents Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel.
02:02These contests are too close to call.
02:05The party also faces new independent challenges in Wonnan and Monash.
02:12And the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail Labor's bid to hold the Greens at bay in Wills,
02:17while complicating the already complex three-horse race in McNamara.
02:21With the very real possibility of a hung parliament, Victorian votes carry a greater weight in shaping the nation
02:27than they've had in many decades.
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