Analyzing American Promise's Chances in the Kentucky Derby

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00:00Let's talk about this next group of horses.

00:02The first one is American Promise.

00:04Adam, he is really fast.

00:06He won the Virginia Derby.

00:07We know that his trainer can win the Kentucky Derby.

00:09He's done it four different times.

00:11Any thoughts on American Promise and his chances in the Derby?

00:15Well, his trainer's got an excellent record,

00:17and we have to bear that in mind.

00:18The horse is two from nine.

00:19I thought the win at Colonial Downs, everything was perfect.

00:23It was a beautiful start.

00:24He got into a good rhythm.

00:26Now, his stride is what he'd want.

00:27We expect his stride to average 25.34 feet,

00:31based on our assessment of his previous form.

00:33You want a horse with a long stride to get themselves out of trouble in the Derby.

00:37Sorry, I called it the Derby.

00:38I should have said the Derby.

00:39You got it.

00:40I can't help it.

00:41But I'd just be concerned.

00:42His top speed last time was 42.37 miles an hour.

00:45That's good.

00:47But if you look at the horses in behind him, they were particularly slow.

00:50This is a big step up in class.

00:52I just felt when we looked at our expected rankings,

00:55we'd have his average speed.

00:56We'd have him ranked 20th.

00:58I think what will happen is he's got a stride that will keep him in contention.

01:02And then when they get into the home stretch, the class of the others will find him out.

01:06And I don't think he'll finish in the first five.

01:08Alexa, where did you have American Promise kind of stacked?

01:11Yeah, I have to agree.

01:12I also have to look at the record specifically at Churchill,

01:15where he's ran over it three times and faded in that long stretch every time.

01:19So I'm also passing on American Promise.

01:22Adam, drawn right next to each other are the two horses who come in that have actually run in Japan.

01:27We've seen the Japanese runners all over the world get so much stronger in the last few years,

01:31so much more competitive.

01:33Maybe it's the year that we have a Japanese runner win the Kentucky Derby.

01:37What can you tell us about Admire Daytona?

01:39I think we have a graphic to support some things about Admire Daytona.

01:43We do.

01:43I mean, Admire Daytona is one of a number of Japanese horses.

01:48The Japanese have really had a massive impact, particularly on the racing in Dubai over the winter.

01:52Admire Daytona won the UAE Derby 12 months ago.

01:55That was won by Forever Young, who went on to finish third in the Derby at Kentucky.

01:59So he's got to be of interest.

02:01The obvious point with him is that those drawn around him must be delighted that he's in Gate 6,

02:06because he is rapid from the start.

02:085.2 seconds to reach 30 miles an hour from the gate in Dubai.

02:12I've had cars that can't do that.

02:15This horse is going to get out in front.

02:16I'd imagine the connections of journalism and a few others will be looking at him as a potential target.

02:21Now, he's got quite a compact stride, less than 24 feet as an average.

02:25I don't think he has the ability to win the race.

02:27And we saw in Dubai, the petrol gauge was certainly flashing red in the closing stages

02:32as Heart of Honor was trying to run him down.

02:33He held on that day, but he's facing bigger and better horses in Kentucky.

02:38But what he is, is a pace angle.

02:40And I think he'll be in the first three or four around the opening bend to give the others something to run at.

02:44Alexa, the two horses from Japan are right next to each other.

02:47Admire Daytona and then Luxor Cafe.

02:50Do you have thoughts on those two?

02:52Yeah, Luxor Cafe is definitely my selection over the two Japanese horses.

02:57I think one thing I've seen in all of his running lines is that he takes command.

03:04And that kind of energy and ability in the derby, I think, is really important.

03:10Adam, if you have a thought or two on Luxor Cafe, and then we can move into your thoughts on the favorite journalism.

03:15Yeah, certainly.

03:16I mean, Luxor Cafe, we have a phrase in English racing called could be anything.

03:19And what that really means is punters and pundits don't really know.

03:23But this horse just won so impressively in Japan.

03:26I thought he was really impressive last time.

03:28Won 52.10 for nine furlongs, 62 kilometers an hour top speed.

03:32He's got the ability to be there.

03:34He's got the magic man, Jao Morera.

03:36That alone is worth a few pounds in my book.

03:38But there is a key point to make here about the race he won.

03:41That race was won in 2024 by a horse called T.O. Password.

03:46T.O. Password went on to finish fifth in the derby last year.

03:50Luxor Cafe was two seconds faster.

03:52Now, it's a different year.

03:55The surface will be slightly different.

03:56You can't read too much.

03:59But that time alone would make him of interest.

04:02And then the horse to beat is journalism.

04:04We only have a few seconds left, and we'll talk more about him throughout the show.

04:08But what do you like so much about him, Adam?

04:10When the boss sent me the email for this podcast and he said to me,

04:14you've got journalism, I was like, yes, that's the one I want.

04:16Big, long stride, 25.91 feet is his expected stride.

04:21That's big, and that's crucial.

04:23If you compare him to Admire Daytona, that means a full stride,

04:25he's going to take two feet out of Admire Daytona over every stride.

04:29The analogy I give to my kids when we're looking at racehorses is,

04:32think about Usain Bolt, the fastest man alive.

04:35It's no coincidence that he's very tall and he had a long stride.

04:38It's not as simple as that.

04:39I'm the same height as Usain Bolt, and there's no chance of me running that speed.

04:42But journalism is going to get the perfect toe into this.

04:45He's got the big, long stride.

04:47He's got the top speed.

04:48He needs the luck.

04:49He needs the gaps to come at the right time.

04:51But if they do, is he not just the best horse in this race by a distance?

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