Will Upset Wins Start to Disappear in March?

WXYT-FM / 97.1 The Ticket

Costa and Jansen discuss whether upset wins in the NCAA Tournament will become less and less frequent in the new era of college basketball with NIL and the transfer portal.

Transcript

00:00Are you concerned about the madness?

00:02A lot of blowouts.

00:04No Cinderella's. Sign of things to come.

00:06Maybe we're overreacting, but it feels like the trend is headed that way.

00:10The little guy has it harder and harder.

00:12With NIL payments ballooning,

00:14there's no continuity for Cinderella teams to even get some footing.

00:18And the games have been blowouts.

00:21The tournament continues. The madness is over.

00:24And does that impact your interest at all?

00:262485399797

00:28Texter says March Madness for the men's side is going to start looking like the women's side.

00:34Very few blowouts.

00:36He says with NIL, more blowouts on the way.

00:39Kevin, on his way to work.

00:41So I looked at the women's bracket, and it's

00:431-2-3-4

00:451-2-3-5

00:471-2-3-5

00:481-2-3-5

00:49And those four fives were OT games, two of them.

00:52So, yeah, I think you're going to see a lot more chalk.

00:55You're going to see a lot more of that.

00:57Look, prerogative, if you think that's the better product.

00:59I think the madness was so unique and made this cool and made it different.

01:03It's a better product when you get to the round of 16,

01:06the round of eight, the final four, the national championship game.

01:10Yes, it's a better product when you have

01:13the best players playing against each other.

01:16But what makes that first round of 64 so exciting

01:21is the prospect of

01:24a 16 falling to a 1, even though it's extremely rare.

01:28But more common is a 15 and a 2.

01:30It's a 14 and a 3.

01:32How about a 13 seed?

01:34Yeah, and we always talk about the 12-5 matchup, right?

01:36That's one that our eyes were on, specifically this year,

01:39because it was UC San Diego, Michigan,

01:41but it was Clemson, who ended up falling to a 12 seed.

01:44Those are ones that have happened, but

01:47in the coming years, is the trend going to be,

01:51this year, one year of sample,

01:5413 through 16 did not advance.

01:58Next year, does it include the 12s?

02:00Does it eventually include the 11s?

02:02Is this going to be a bracket that only

02:06when you get to 16,

02:10the 1 through 5s are the only ones that legitimately have a shot?

02:14To the guy who says the product is better

02:16because the best teams are still alive,

02:18you're a basketball guy.

02:20The product is the opening weekend.

02:24If your team's still in it, like I know we're talking to Wolverine fans and Spartan fans,

02:27you're still invested because your team's in it.

02:29But if your team's out right now,

02:31I think the interest level peters out as the tournament goes on.

02:34I think the interest peaks the first 48 hours,

02:38and if we're knifing that to death,

02:41it's not good for the product.

02:43Well, and if you're only in it for your team,

02:46Michigan and Michigan State, both programs that will be able to invest in their basketball teams

02:50and the talent that's on the court.

02:54But if you're talking about the interest across the country,

02:58right now you have 16 fan bases

03:00along with college basketball fans

03:02that are invested in moving forward with the tournament.

03:05But the casuals die off after the opening weekend.

03:07Yeah.

03:08And they might not show up at all if there aren't upsets.

03:10And the casuals eventually will die off anyway.

03:12Yeah.

03:13So how much of that will affect,

03:15will the casual fan no longer want to watch the opening weekend

03:19if within the first five minutes of the game,

03:21It's over.

03:22It's done.

03:23Your Ucons, your Floridas,

03:25your, you know,

03:26the teams that are spending the most on their rosters

03:29are just simply better.

03:30Texter says you guys are completely overreacting.

03:33Besides, as much as fans love Cinderella's,

03:36they ruin your bracket and they make these next rounds boring.

03:39I suppose everybody's got their bracket alive, right?

03:43Unless you had St. John's winning it all.

03:45Sorry to...

03:46Yeah. Sorry, Lisa.

03:47Sorry, Lisa.

03:48Everybody else is doing fine.

03:49Texter says, let's take this deeper.

03:51They're looking to expand the tournament to more teams

03:53while at the same time the talent gap grows.

03:55Get ready for more blowouts in the early rounds.

03:58The expansion would be a disaster.

04:00I think, yeah, I think even before this trend,

04:02and again, it's a one-year trend.

04:04Don't know if this is what it's going to be moving forward,

04:07but if you're reading the tea leaves

04:09and if you're just simply paying the best talent,

04:13to go to 20, maybe 25 of the schools,

04:19and you're plucking the best talent,

04:21that's the issue, is you're plucking the best talent

04:24from Oakland, from the Mac schools,

04:27from, you know, pick any conference.

04:29Big Sky, MIAC, whatever, yeah.

04:31You're picking the best talent that has,

04:34whether it's developed late

04:35or it was somebody that went under the radar,

04:37now all of a sudden, hey, they are,

04:40they're playing in a conference title,

04:42and a guy goes off.

04:43Now all of a sudden, that individual,

04:45while not being able to be paid by that school,

04:49is offered 500 grand for a year?

04:53He's gone.

04:54In a lot of ways, it's the reverse Robin Hood.

04:57It's the rich stealing from the poor

04:59to build up their bank account.

05:01It's exactly what it is.

05:02Texter says it's an opportunity for the NIT

05:04to rebrand and rebuild their tournament.

05:07John and Harper Woods.

05:09And this one says it's kind of funny.

05:11A couple years ago, the narrative was

05:12the tournament sucked

05:13because there were no bluebloods.

05:14Now it sucks because there's no little guys.

05:16My takeaway is everyone just loves to bitch.

05:19Well, yeah.

05:20Some truth to that for sure.

05:22I didn't hate it two years ago

05:23with the little guys.

05:24Had a coach tell me one time,

05:25it's your God-given right to bitch and moan.

05:28It's my God-given right,

05:30whether I care or not.

05:33True.

05:34Thanks, coach.

05:35Which coach was that?

05:37Joe Pendry.

05:38Hold on, coach.

05:40Perhaps this is another text

05:42we're getting a lot today.

05:43The committee's doing a better job

05:44seeding teams.

05:45Maybe that's the explanation.

05:46Do you buy that?

05:50It's possible.

05:51That could be part of the equation.

05:52There's a lot of things that play

05:54into this equation,

05:55but when it comes down to it,

05:56if you don't have,

05:58if you never have a 14 that ever wins,

06:00you never have a 13,

06:02and we start moving that bar,

06:06this year it's 13 through 16.

06:08Do you include 12s next year?

06:10And I don't think it's because

06:11the NCAA is just so good

06:13at seeding teams.

06:14Has that ever been the argument?

06:16What is self-serving?

06:17I mean, I know this isn't...

06:18Yeah, of course,

06:19the committee's just perfect

06:20at their job.

06:21Oh, the data that says

06:22this team is a four seed,

06:24they're perfect where they are.

06:26It would be great, though,

06:27if they tweeted out,

06:28we finally got it right, guys.

06:29This year, we did it.

06:30Perfect lap.

06:31Perfect lap.

06:34Texture says,

06:35oh, no, not my bracket.

06:36Who cares?

06:37Upsets make the product.

06:39That's more of what I'm saying.

06:40There are a lot of people,

06:41especially on that first weekend,

06:42that love the upset.

06:44Some people saying

06:45it's an overreaction.

06:46The little guys will still be there.

06:47I don't like the new portal rules.

06:49I'm all for players getting themselves

06:51to elevated programs.

06:53Look, I'm not mad

06:54at any of the individual players.

06:56No, and we can revisit this next year.

06:58Yeah.

06:59We could be way off.

07:00For the first time,

07:01I would be wrong.

07:02Certainly not for me, either.

07:03But this is,

07:04one year does not make a trend.

07:06No, but we're seeing one year,

07:08and we're seeing

07:09where the sport's headed,

07:10and we're, I think,

07:11trying to add two plus two

07:12to get four.

07:13Right.

07:14And if you are taking

07:16all the best players

07:18from those schools,

07:19not that they're going to be starters

07:21on Alabama,

07:23or USC, UCLA,

07:26Michigan, Michigan State,

07:28you know, UConn,

07:30but you're talking about guys

07:31that maybe they were the headliner

07:33at those schools.

07:34They're not getting paid,

07:35but if I'm going to get paid

07:37to be the second guy off the bench,

07:41these are 18 to 21-year-old kids,

07:44and you offer them 500 grand

07:46or somewhere in the ballpark,

07:48the pennies of 250 grand

07:51for a year.

07:52Only.

07:53Right.

07:54They're jumping ship.

07:55I don't blame,

07:56nobody's blaming the players,

07:57but I definitely don't blame the players.

07:58Like, there's an odd situation

07:59with Michigan right now

08:00where they're still playing,

08:01and they have a player

08:02who's entered the portal.

08:04We'll talk about it a little bit

08:05in the nine o'clock hour here.

08:06I don't blame the player.

08:07It's a lousy situation.

08:08The portal opens during the tournament.

08:10I mean, the system's

08:11not designed well here.

08:13It's the same thing

08:14as the Penn State quarterback.

08:15Yeah.

08:16Entering it while they're

08:17in the college football playoffs.

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