US, Ukraine officials in new Saudi talks, no breakthrough with Russia

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00:00We're going to talk more about the ceasefire from the Russian angle now with analyst Mark

00:04Tamnitsky, who joins me from Washington.

00:06Mark, thank you for taking the time to join us.

00:09I mean, we heard about 12 hours of talks between Russia and the U.S.

00:13Is that a good sign or a bad sign?

00:16No one knows.

00:17First of all, thank you again for having me.

00:19It's a pleasure to be back on.

00:20This is something that analysts are trying to determine because the Russians have been

00:24speaking with the Americans on several occasions.

00:28But there's also much skepticism with how the ceasefire will move forward.

00:32For example, as your colleague was mentioning, the Russians are meeting with the United States

00:36to discuss a ceasefire.

00:38And at the same time, they are launching multiple drone strikes, not on military abilities that

00:42Ukraine has, but on civilian and energy areas within Ukraine.

00:47And they're targeting men, women and children.

00:48And that doesn't sound like a country that's interested in having a ceasefire.

00:52And we're also hearing Russian reports that say Russia wants to open up these talks to

00:56other countries and to the U.N.

00:59What would be behind that move?

01:02It's an interesting development, as the Russians have previously stated that they don't want

01:05other countries involved.

01:07And the Russians are very well aware that numerous U.N. resolutions have been passed

01:11since the full-scale invasion in February of 2022, condemning the Russian Federation.

01:15This is a very strong international support for Ukraine.

01:21And many of these United Nations countries, whether they be in the traditional Western

01:25sense of Europe and the United States, but several other countries throughout South

01:29America, Africa and Asia and Oceania, also support Ukraine.

01:33And there will be discussions on further Ukrainian support, potentially even sending troops to

01:39the contact line within Ukraine to help the Ukrainians defend themselves against potential

01:44future Russian attacks.

01:45So it's odd that the Russians would invite other countries around, knowing that they

01:49do not support Russia and what it's doing in its core.

01:53And what's interesting, I mean, the U.S. has been the go-between, at least in this

01:56round of ceasefire talks.

01:58I guess my question is, is the U.S. the right negotiating partner, especially given these

02:02latest comments from top Trump officials slamming Europe via that group chat chain that looped

02:07in a journalist?

02:10What's very odd as well is not only has the United States had these conversations separately

02:14with Ukraine and with Russia, no European representation has been invited to any of

02:18these talks.

02:19And Ukraine is a country within Europe.

02:22Ukraine is a country that wants to be integrated with various European organizations, such

02:26as the European Union, and the Europeans feel that they should also be present.

02:30So while it is important that the war does end, it seems like the United States is trying

02:36to rush forward some sort of peace agreement without considering future possibilities.

02:41And having European representation is very important, not only for Ukraine, but also

02:45for European security and what this could mean on the way forward.

02:48So the Europeans, I think, as well as the United Kingdom, would be better positioned

02:53because this country is within Europe and it impacts them as well.

02:58And just to remind everyone, these talks at the moment are really just about hammering

03:00out a partial pause in the war, a 30-day ceasefire.

03:04If it's been such a struggle to even get to this limited ceasefire point, do you ever

03:08see the two sides getting to a full ceasefire agreement?

03:12And if so, how?

03:14It is possible, but that is a long ways away.

03:18And unfortunately, there are numerous historic events where Russia has violated ceasefires

03:23previously.

03:24For example, in the invasion of Georgia in August 2008, there was a ceasefire saying

03:28that the Russians had to withdraw their military presence in the provinces of Abkhazia and

03:33South Ossetia in Georgia.

03:34That was 2008.

03:35It is now 2025, and the Russians still have a military presence within Georgia.

03:40And then similarly, during the first invasion of Ukraine in the Donbas in April of 2014,

03:45the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe created a ceasefire agreement saying

03:49that the Russians had to withdraw their troops and military presence within eastern Ukraine,

03:54and eight years later, that led to the full-scale invasion.

03:56So understandably so, there's a lot of skepticism from the Ukrainians as well as the Europeans

04:01that a deal currently cannot be reached with the Russians.

04:04And then most recently, the Russians last week said that they would be open to having

04:09a ceasefire and energy infrastructure, and several hours after that conversation with

04:12the United States, they launched drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

04:17Mark, thanks so much for sharing your expertise with us.

04:19That's Mark Timitsky from Washington.

04:23Thank you again.

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