Strong storms, downpours to hit the southern Plains

AccuWeather

Guy Pearson, AccuWeather's severe weather expert, warned that strong storms are expected to impact the southern Plains over the next several days.

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00:00Haven't had to talk to you in a while, Guy. Thankfully, we haven't had a whole lot in the way of severe weather.

00:06I showed you the warmth, Guy, with temperatures well above historical averages,

00:10but something we have a little different today is we're starting to get the flow right out of the moisture source we call the Gulf.

00:21That is correct, Bernie. We've got the south winds, southeast winds starting to pick back up,

00:26starting to pull that moisture back up out of the Gulf right up ahead of our storm systems that are coming out of the southwest.

00:34And, of course, we look at our dew point temperatures, Guy, classic.

00:37That dew point temperature all the way up to 67 in Dallas.

00:40Meanwhile, there's the dry line, Guy, between Oklahoma City and Dallas this morning.

00:48Yep. You've got your nice plume of moisture here, all in the green shading there with dew points well into the 60s,

00:55maybe even right around 70 later today.

00:59And so we'll have plenty of moisture to work with as the dynamics get in place here later this week.

01:06Yeah, we have the upper low. There it is between Los Angeles and also San Francisco, Guy.

01:13And because this is a slow mover, this is going to come out in some pieces here.

01:18Take a look at the upper low and your thoughts as we play this through.

01:23We'll stop at first by Wednesday evening.

01:28Yeah, with the upper level low here, it is one of those situations where when you have a big upper level low like this,

01:35it does tend to come out in pieces.

01:37Right.

01:37And so we're going to have that first piece start to eject across the southwest and into the southern plains during the day on Wednesday

01:44and into Wednesday night within the main feature then taking its time,

01:48but then eventually ejecting out here across the plains on Thursday and Thursday night.

01:53We always talk about the tilt of these systems that being so important with severe weather.

01:59And we see a tilt that goes from northwest to southeast, what we call a negative tilt.

02:05Why is that always so detrimental?

02:08Or why is that one of the main ingredients when we're looking at severe weather, especially tornadoes?

02:13Yeah, when you're looking at it from a tornado standpoint, you really want that negative tilt that we call with that trough as it ejects out.

02:25And that really, from the winds aloft, really helps to send the wind in different directions,

02:31which then allows extra turning of the winds in the lower atmosphere.

02:34If you imagine the winds at the upper atmosphere and starting to diverge a little bit as they come across the plains,

02:41so maybe winds in Wichita, for example, might be more out of a south-southerly direction,

02:48whereas your winds across Dallas may be more of a southwesterly direction.

02:52So you have those winds splitting farther east, and that really allows for turning of the winds closer to the surface,

03:00and that's how you get those tornadic cells or at least rotation within the thunderstorm cells

03:05and either leading to large hail and or isolated tornadoes.

03:10Let's talk about tomorrow's threats beginning tomorrow night, Guy.

03:17Yeah, tomorrow night, with that first piece of energy, we are going to have thunderstorms move over the same areas.

03:24There's going to be some heavy rain with this and certainly some local flash flooding,

03:27so we want to make sure everybody's aware of that.

03:29We also have thunderstorm wind chances with this, as well as then some marginal large hail around an inch or so.

03:37That does look to, you know, impact the area here.

03:42And you can really see it really tries to congeal with this first piece of energy that comes out.

03:47It's really just raining over the same area, moving over that same area,

03:50and part of the reason that we're concerned with flooding across this area.

03:55Now, by Thursday, let's take a look at the future radar.

03:58It looks a little different compared to what we just saw Wednesday night.

04:02Yes, it certainly does.

04:06And, you know, with that main piece of energy that does start to kick out during the day Thursday and Thursday night,

04:12then we actually end up with a little bit more storm structure.

04:15Some of the thunderstorm cells are a little bit more separated,

04:18especially towards the southern end of, you know, some of the thunderstorm complexes here.

04:23And so when you have that set up, then you get a little bit better atmosphere for it to actually work with

04:30and, you know, increasing those chances of severe weather, both from a hail, damaging wind,

04:37and even an isolated tornado aspect.

04:40During the day Thursday, Thursday night here, you see we do have a moderate area,

04:44currently extending from, you know, about I-40 in eastern Oklahoma back through the Dallas Metroplex

04:49all the way back towards Austin, and maybe even, you know, one of the things we're looking at is

04:55maybe does that south end of that, maybe does it need to extend a little bit farther southwest towards San Antonio?

05:01So that's something we'll be keeping an eye on a day or two.

05:04But certainly right along that I-35 corridor right through central Texas is going to be the main focus area

05:10or the most likely area to severe weather on Thursday and Thursday night.

05:15AccuWeather severe weather expert Guy Pearson joining us from our severe weather students.

05:19Thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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