00:00Hanson, the severe weather risk for us, what may be kind of breaking it down?
00:03Guy, thanks for joining us this morning.
00:07Good morning.
00:08All right, if we can get our map up here and Guy can just kind of
00:12pinpoint here how this pattern can bring severe weather.
00:18Yep, so you know as we're talking about severe weather, we're looking at
00:23having enough warmth, having enough moisture, and then certainly having enough dynamics
00:28on the backside and then some of those turnings of the winds of the loft
00:33higher up in the atmosphere to really help get severe weather going.
00:36And you can see in the graphic here, you know, we've had a good influx of moisture.
00:41We actually finally got some rain across Kansas last week and a good amount to really try to
00:47hit into that drought a little bit, but we've got moisture return back in place
00:51that we've been missing for a long time, especially across the southern plains.
00:55And so we've got that moisture streaming up, we're rebounding in temperatures,
00:58warming up the next couple days here a little bit, and then we have a potent system in the
01:03west that's got, you know, going to produce a lot of snow overnight tonight
01:08and has already produced a lot amount, a decent amount of snow across the central and southern
01:13Rockies. And that piece of energy as it finally starts to kick out here Thursday and especially
01:20into Friday is going to bring out severe weather back across the southern plains here.
01:25You mentioned the energy here, that's what we're looking at right now. I stopped it here at about
01:28three o'clock on a Thursday afternoon because that is one of the days that we could see severe
01:33weather, but you see kind of some limited energy across Texas.
01:38Yep, limited energy across Texas, you know, it's really a cutoff low in the southwest,
01:43so it's really just sort of spinning on itself. And you have, you know, some of that wind you can
01:49see back on the Thursday frame there on the western side, it was still feeding down the
01:53back side, so that means it's still digging, it's still intensifying before really kicking out.
01:58So that area that we're looking at on Thursday is going to be more confined to western Texas,
02:03but then as this finally does start to move out during the day here on Friday,
02:07then some of that energy will spread a little bit farther east and we will have storms that
02:13develop more across the southern plains and bring areas from, you know, even potentially all the way
02:19down to Austin, up to Dallas, to Oklahoma City, back into that severe weather potential.
02:26And Guy, we were talking earlier here about, like, what are the limiting factors when it
02:30comes to this particular severe weather setup? And you mentioned some of the moisture.
02:36You know, I mean, while we've got moisture back in place and it's sufficient for
02:42thunderstorms and then even severe thunderstorms, it's not really a lot of moisture, right? It's
02:48not like we're, you know, more springtime set up or anything like that to where it's really
02:53influx of moisture. You really step outside, you really feel it. It's more of just enough
02:58reaching that sort of threshold that we look for to have enough moisture in place for then
03:03severe weather to develop. All right, and that all breaks down to our risk here for Thursday into
03:08Thursday night. That some risk means severe thunderstorms possible in parts of the area.
03:13When you look at the different risks, what do you think is going to be the most standout from these?
03:19Yeah, I think the most standout from these is probably going to be the hail, the flooding
03:24downpours, and then the localized wind gusts there of 50 to 60. Those are probably going to be the
03:30main players for what we're seeing on Thursday as that initial sort of piece of energy works around
03:36that upper level low. And then as we sort of step through here, and then certainly during the day
03:41on Friday, that back end energy that was on the west side of that moving down around the southern
03:48end and then starting to kick out a little bit more is going to push that energy farther east.
03:52And certainly we are looking at severe weather across southern Oklahoma all the way to basically
03:59the I-35 corridor here. We are talking about hail, localized damaging wind gusts to 65, 55 to 65 for
04:07most of the severe storms with our local max of 80 in there from the AccuWeather standpoint.
04:14One thing about this graphic, we are going to be talking and monitoring things closely. There may
04:19be a moderate that we add in here going through the next 24 hours, so certainly stay tuned with
04:26that. Can't completely rule out an isolated tornado with this as well. You know this upper level low,
04:33it's really going to mature and sort of stay on top of itself instead of moving across the
04:37plains at a decent clip, and so that's going to limit the amount of severe weather and the coverage
04:43here. So not necessarily looking at a tornado outbreak with this one, but still certainly
04:49we could potentially see one or two here.
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