Newcastle United make huge transfer 'gamble'

Shields Gazette

Joe Buck assesses Newcastle United's January transfer window and why it was a big 'gamble' for the Magpies not to strengthen their squad.

Transcript

00:00So, another transfer window has been gone at Newcastle United and as we spoke about

00:05yesterday and spoke about throughout the window, it was a gamble from Newcastle. Selling Miguel

00:10Almaron and Lloyd Kelly, £30m raised, you can't really argue with the money raised,

00:15that is good value for them too, but it's a gamble not to strengthen and to weaken their

00:19squad from the squad that entered the window. Now, we all know the pros and cons of those,

00:26the fact that not buying this window means they can buy in the future, apologies, but

00:32it is still a risk and now Eddie Howe knows that his 20 players he's got now has to get them,

00:38certainly European football, as close to breaking their long seven-decade wait for

00:43Silverware as possible. Now, that obviously starts against Arsenal on Wednesday night.

00:47If they can get through that, they're obviously just 90 minutes away from that and then

00:51all these transfer issues sort of dissipate in the background if they win that. If they

00:55triumph on March 16th, no one will care they haven't bought anyone in summer, but if they

01:00lose that, that's when you look at the January, the risks of not strengthening in January and

01:05actually was it worth it or not. The qualification for Europe is not guaranteed, certainly the

01:09qualification for Champions League is far from guaranteed. We think five players will be enough,

01:13but with Manchester City sort of a bit resurgent or got beat by Arsenal at the weekend, Liverpool

01:19guaranteed in there, Arsenal guaranteed in there and then you've got Man City, Nottingham Forest,

01:23Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa are all going for that, you know, a couple of spots in there.

01:28It's going to be difficult for Newcastle to get into the Champions League qualification

01:31and maybe not signing anyone might be the difference. Of course, you might be looking

01:34at main goal and actually they did the right thing. They got Champions League football

01:37and they're really in a really good position to strengthen in summer. But right now,

01:40you know, that's a risk and Eddie Howe is going to have to deliver as he's done

01:44since he joined in November 2021. You know, he's delivered time and time again,

01:48especially when, you know, they've had a couple of knockdowns. He's managed to find a solution.

01:52They're going to have to do that again. Of course, the match against Fulham on Saturday

01:55wasn't good enough. But as I said, if they beat Arsenal on Wednesday night, that's all sort of,

02:01you know, forgotten about and, you know, they can get on with strengthening and going forward

02:05into the future as they are. But yeah, it's a gamble and one that, you know, fans are probably

02:12unhappy with. I've seen, you know, lots of comments on our social media and the Shields

02:15Gazette social media about Paul Mitchell and whether his job, he's done a good enough job.

02:19You know, he's been in the sporting director for about six months now. What has he actually done?

02:24Well, as much as Newcastle haven't bought any players, it was always difficult to buy players

02:27in the summer. And with the sporting director coming halfway through, they identified Mark

02:31Gee, he's a signing that just couldn't get out of the line. You know, Crystal Palace rightly

02:36didn't want to lose their player. And yes, you know, it was a fail. That's two windows in a row

02:40now. They've, you know, bought limited first team players. Obviously, Lloyd Kelly joined in the

02:44summer. He's now gone. Will Asula, the only other outfield player to join. He looks very much a

02:48developmental player. And yes, you can look at Paul Mitchell and say, why, what has he been doing?

02:52But ultimately, he had to get rid of players. He had to change the transfer policy of the club.

02:55The transfer policy was not sustainable. They were in the mess of PSR in June last year because of

03:00their transfer policy, signing, you know, ready-made players and not being able to, or not selling

03:05players at the right time and buying players without resale value. Paul Mitchell's tried to

03:09change that. It's going to take time, but he's already seen that he's got, you know, Miguel

03:13Almaron's gone and Kelly, as I mentioned, you know, £30 million for them too. Newcastle have

03:17to get better at the player trade and the will under Paul Mitchell. And that's something that

03:20he's done. So as much as bringing in players, hasn't really, you know, he hasn't really ticked

03:24that off his box, you know, resumes so far that the selling players is what he's been good at.

03:28So I think that the criticism of Paul Mitchell is unwarranted. If we, you know, we're talking

03:32about this in a year's time, six months time, seven months time, whenever the summer window ends

03:36and they haven't done anything, that's when I think criticism can stop. But right now,

03:39I think Paul Mitchell has got so much to do with the club that actually not buying players and not

03:43wasting money that they have done in the past. It was actually one of his priorities. And I think

03:47they've done that well. But yes, as you said, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

03:53They will have to prove this between now and the end of May that they can go with the squad

03:57they've got. And actually not spending January was the correct decision. I said right at the

04:01beginning of the video, and as I mentioned, probably throughout January, it is a gamble.

04:05But, you know, football means you have to gamble. Unfortunately, PSR means you can't gamble by just

04:10spending a little bit more on a player. That gamble's taken away. The gamble has to be,

04:13can we go with what we've got? Because we can't afford to get another player because of PSR. So

04:17it's a, yeah, it's a hard one. And it's difficult to look at teams like Villa, who have bought,

04:22you know, lots of players and big players on loan. And I've seen, you know, a lot of fans as well

04:26comment and then you guys haven't bought any players on loan, but it's not as easy as going

04:28out and buying players on loan. There, you know, that thing has to be counted against PSR. And

04:32clubs have to be willing to sell and let players leave. Very few clubs will, you know, Aston Villa

04:36would have took a massive chunk of Marcus Rashford's loans, Marcus Asensio, Attil De Sassi

04:41as well. You know, they've been playing a lot of their loans and we all know Villa, you know,

04:45very tight with their wages to turnover margins, which is big for European competitions. And

04:50Newcastle are just trying to avoid that and just trying to avoid any issues if they can't qualify

04:53for Europe this year. They will hope they'll be able to do that, you know, and hope that January

04:59hasn't impacted that too much. But you would expect that they will, I would hope they get

05:05some sort of European football championships, obviously a massive bonus. And if they can get

05:08that, that would be a brilliant season for them. But it's a big risk for January and one that,

05:13you know, they will deal with and they'll have to, they'll have to come, they'll have to go again,

05:17have to show it on the pitch as they've done under Eddie Howsam. The players now, no excuse,

05:21they've got to go out and show it. They've shown their quality. They've won 11 of the last 13

05:24games. Yes, they lost to Fulham and Bournemouth in the last two home games, but 11 of 13,

05:28they've won, which is a brilliant record. And they're potentially just 90 minutes away from

05:32another Wembley appearance. And then with Birmingham at the weekend, you're then in

05:35that FA Cup journey as well. So yeah, as I said, big gamble, but one to hopefully pay off

05:39at the end of the season. And if not, then, you know, questions will have to stop being asked

05:43of the club and the hierarchy and the decision making,

05:46especially this window they made and summer window just gone as well.

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