Gaza stabilisation force will require a 'political horizon for the manifestation of a Palestinian state''

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00:00And joining me now from London is Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East specialist at the Royal

00:05United Services Institute for Defence and Social Security Studies. Dr. Hellyer, thank you so much

00:10for your time. With clashes occurring in recent days between Israeli troops and Hamas militants,

00:16it's a reminder, isn't it, that the devil is in the detail yet again, that you need to very quickly

00:22follow up any ceasefire deal with a specific plan on how to stop violations, not to mention

00:29an international force on the ground to keep it alive. So is that likely going to happen?

00:37Thank you for having me. Actually, I think the lesson is a little bit different here,

00:41quite frankly. I think the main lesson that we ought to draw from this is that if we're going

00:45to have any sort of ceasefire on the ground in Gaza, then we need to have an enforcement mechanism

00:52and a mechanism that ensures accountability. This has been absent. And this is why we've

00:59had this genocidal war on Gaza for the past two years. The Israelis started striking targets

01:07in Gaza. Even after it was clear that at least one of these skirmishes or one of these attacks

01:16that took place yesterday was the result of an Israeli vehicle being exploded by an IED that had been

01:23there for months and went over an IED in Rafah, an unexploded IED, i.e. it wasn't an actual attack by

01:33Hamas or affiliated forces. And this was made clear to Washington and Washington actually had the

01:41Israelis pull back and stop. And that's why we've seen Netanyahu say that he's going to open up

01:47the border crossings again for humanitarian aid. Indeed, the very fact that humanitarian aid would

01:53be stopped at any point as a result of this is absolutely outrageous. So I think the lesson here

02:00is about what sort of accountability mechanisms are in place and enforcement mechanisms are in place

02:06in order to ensure the international law applies to everyone, to the Israelis, to Hamas, everybody.

02:12And which is what I was asking in that first question. The fact of the matter is there is

02:17no third... These aren't details. These are fundamental issues that unfortunately have led to the last two

02:24years of this really atrocious war taking place. I understood your question and I appreciate the

02:29sentiment, but it's not about the devil is in the details. These aren't details. These are fundamental

02:35aspects of moving forward that unfortunately have been completely left out and have been left out for the

02:40past two years. And as is the case, many would say that last week's agreement was a lot of balloons

02:46and streamers, but the reality is there was nothing backing it up. Phase two talks are supposed to be

02:52happening soon. Where do you think the process is at at this stage in time?

03:00I like the expression balloons and streamers. That actually feels quite right. So thank you for that.

03:07But in terms of where things move forward now, again, this is really about enforcement and

03:13ensuring that there's a consistent application of international law when it comes to all of this.

03:19So far, we don't have that. There was the hostage prisoner captive exchange deal. That went off pretty

03:26much. But now who's going to be a part of the stabilization force? What rubric does it come under?

03:34Is it a U.N. force? Is it validated by the U.N.? Is it the subject of a U.N. Security Council

03:40resolution? Where's the political horizon? Are our countries being asked to join a force

03:46that will essentially enforce on the ground the Israeli presence? Or will there be some sort

03:54of horizon, political horizon for a Palestinian state at the end of this with inclusion by the

04:00Palestinian Authority? By the way, the Palestinian Authority internationally is the state of Palestine,

04:05the state of Palestine, which is recognized at the U.N. as being observed in status. So the

04:10state of Palestine has to be very much a part of this. So far, we haven't seen that. And I'm not sure

04:15what states are going to be willing to join up to the stabilization force if they don't have a

04:21political horizon for the manifestation of a Palestinian state and the ending of the Israeli

04:27occupation. I think that's crucial. I think that you hit the nail right on the head there. When

04:32it comes to what happens next, this is a really big question that as yet has not been answered.

04:39And in your opinion, and with your military and geopolitical background, what would it take

04:45to have an effective stabilization force on the ground there in Gaza?

04:50There are a number of countries that have experience in getting into these sorts of

04:55situations. That's not the issue. The issue is whether or not they will be viewed as a stabilization

05:00force by the population, or they will be viewed as a new occupation force complicit in the ongoing

05:07Israeli occupation of their country. That, I think, is the most critical thing. So that will be the

05:15the first thing that people have to ask. The second will be how to divide up the responsibilities on

05:21the ground, and then also overall command and control to ensure that the different elements

05:26are not at loggerheads with each other. That latter part is very difficult. It is possible. But again,

05:34there needs to be a political horizon that everybody agrees on in order to move forward with the rest of

05:41it. And as you're saying, there needs to be a political horizon. But in the meantime, you

05:45effectively do have a vacuum there, don't you, in Gaza, at the moment? I mean,

05:50Hamas is reasserting control. The Israelis are coming back in and out as they so desire.

05:56So in terms of a temporary phase, what could be done in the meantime?

06:03So it's not about what could be done. It's about what would be done. So one could argue that because

06:10there is a security vacuum on the ground as a result of the past two years of war on Gaza.

06:16Also, incidentally, because the Israelis continue to back certain militant factions on the ground

06:22that are anti-Hamas, but they're backing them as collaboration forces. And there are at least four

06:30of these gangs up and down the strip. The most famous is Abu Shabab, but then there are others as well.

06:35And keeping in mind, there's massive dissent against Hamas throughout the strip as a result

06:41of the last two years as well. So you're right, there is certainly a security vacuum in that regard.

06:48The question then becomes, though, what country is going to be willing to step in and make itself

06:55a target? So I think it's really important that this political horizon business gets sorted out as

07:02soon as possible. Very little is going to be able to take place without it, because you're going to be

07:07asking countries to put their soldiers, their armed forces, their own sons and daughters onto the ground

07:13and become, you know, unfortunately, part of an ongoing conflict, which they should not do without

07:22knowing what they're getting themselves into. And certainly not so they can become complicit in any

07:28ongoing violation of international law. Just to remind your viewers, the International Court of

07:32Justice said that the Israeli occupation of Gaza and of East Jerusalem and the West Bank and the

07:37Golan Heights is illegal and needs to end. No country should be a part of any ongoing engagement in that

07:42regard. On the contrary, we should be doing everything we can do to end the Israeli occupation.

07:47In the meantime, I want to come back again to logistical details. There have been some reports that the

07:51Israelis don't want Turkish or Qatari troops on the ground in Gaza, that they would prefer

07:56UAE or Egyptian troops. What have you heard about that?

08:03Well, hearing is different than confirming, right? So without being able to say this for certain,

08:14yes, I think that the Israelis would be uncomfortable having the Turks there, even though the Turks,

08:20frankly, would be an addition to the stabilization force that I think would be

08:25welcome by many others in the region. There's also talk about Azerbaijan, but that's because of the

08:32very strong relationship that Tel Aviv and the Israelis have with Azerbaijan. I'm not so sure that

08:39the Emiratis are going to come in or not, but I have heard that being suggested and floated as well.

08:46The original position of the Emiratis was that they would not come in unless there was a definitive

08:52request from the Palestinian Authority. I'm not sure where that stands as of now.

09:01The Qatari's, I don't think, are going to try to push themselves into any stabilization force on the

09:06ground. They may coordinate in certain ways, but I would be surprised if more than that.

09:11The Egyptians have said that they would be willing to play a role, and I suspect a strong role.

09:16But again, it would have to be with that political horizon being very clearly outlined. Otherwise,

09:23I think you're going to find very few. Also, the Indonesians have apparently made overtures in this

09:29regard, saying that they would be willing to participate. But again, it's got to be with a

09:35political horizon.

09:37Dr. Helio, thank you so much for your analysis.

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