Analyzing the Final Top 10 Before College Football Playoff

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00:00Ben's top ten to start off our number two.

00:07Here is the weight list as we will do this and we'll work into the top ten.

00:11This is the final top ten before selection Sunday following conference championship

00:16Saturday that will determine the first ever twelve team field of the college football

00:20playoff.

00:21And every time we have done the weight list, right, those teams just on the outside looking

00:25in waiting to crack the top ten.

00:28I have said in no particular order.

00:31This week I actually kind of want to change that.

00:33There is a little bit of a particular order at least to my top ten where these two teams

00:38would be at the top.

00:40Iowa State would be down here, Miami would be down here, and maybe Alabama flip-flopping

00:46with Miami.

00:47We'll talk about why I feel that way in just a matter of moments.

00:51But here is the weight list as it stands.

00:54Their corresponding college football playoff ranking and Kev, their national championship

00:58price.

00:59As you will notice, these two teams do not have a number because it seems as of right

01:04now there is zero path for either the Gamecocks or the Canes to get into the college football

01:08playoff.

01:09And there isn't, right?

01:10I mean they're not going to jump over Alabama and we don't have multiple teams playing today

01:14that could be eliminated.

01:16The only one really is SMU.

01:18The notable thing here would be no-all-miss if we were to get to a 16-team field.

01:24The expectation is it would be this group, plus all-miss, bing-bang, you know, that kind

01:29of opens everything up.

01:31I think what's very interesting to me is the distinction that you've made here of these

01:36are the two teams that you would have knocking on the door, opposed to who the committee

01:40decided in Alabama, as well as opposed to Miami who the committee would have been the

01:45next team in the race there.

01:49Because I can't start arguing with you if I don't know the why.

01:52Arizona State, as the favorites to win the Big 12, I bet on the Sun Devils to do so.

01:57That projected path to the college football playoff is why the Sun Devils are there.

02:01A 10-2 team, both straight up and against the numbers.

02:04This is the big one.

02:05South Carolina, maybe in my idea of what a projected field would be, would be that team

02:10to earn the last at-large spot.

02:12We have talked about this often throughout this college football season.

02:15I was really hoping the selection committee, as the one in basketball does, would use a

02:20little bit of additional thought, understanding a bigger field.

02:24Yes, hopefully pertaining to some criteria, but understanding where teams are trending

02:30at this point, as they often do in college basketball.

02:33Winners of six in a row.

02:35And after beating Clemson on the road last week, they moved up by one spot, and that

02:42was it.

02:43It is clear the committee has focused on two things to determine its projected bracket

02:47in the college football playoff.

02:49First and foremost, head-to-head victory.

02:51And there is no doubt, Alabama has that over South Carolina.

02:54By two points against a Gamecocks team that was trending up when the Crimson Tide was

02:58a 20.5-point home favorite.

03:02And on top of that, Kev, they have focused more on the quality of win versus the quality

03:08or quantity of losses.

03:10Alabama has three losses, two of them against teams that are at 500 or worse.

03:17South Carolina does not have those.

03:20Even Ole Miss.

03:21Well, Ole Miss has the loss to Kentucky, but even Miami does not.

03:24I understand the Hurricanes do not have that ranked or quality win, but their two losses

03:28against Georgia Tech and a nine-win Syracuse team, and it dropped them by six spots in

03:34this latest ranking.

03:35Yeah, look, I think that the committee, again, is one bit inconsistent, but something that

03:39I've said from the beginning, the main thing, Lacey, I want them to copy from college basketball,

03:45stop with the weekly rankings.

03:46That is why Miami is not in, because on a week-to-week basis, they had to adjust the

03:50numbers, and that is what then got us here more than anything.

03:53I, though, and you and I have talked, I would not have South Carolina in.

03:59I wouldn't have them in front of Ole Miss.

04:01Ole Miss smashed them in their own building.

04:04And this is my full body of work.

04:07I don't know how you want me to weigh timing.

04:09I know I don't weigh it as much as everybody else.

04:11No, I understand, but to Ben's point, they are the hottest team in the country right

04:15now.

04:16Oh, they're not.

04:17Well, one of.

04:18In the SEC, they are.

04:19South Carolina's one of the hottest teams in the country.

04:22I mean, you're correct, as well.

04:23They are the hottest team in the SEC, playing their best football at the right moment.

04:27Kev, I would agree with you.

04:28Losing to Ole Miss at home as a nine-and-a-half-point hundred dollar by 24 points is Ole Miss's

04:35second best win.

04:36Obviously, beating Georgia at home is huge.

04:38The running rebs, though, have a terrible loss to a Kentucky team that has one conference

04:43win.

04:44It was against Ole Miss.

04:45Oh, yeah.

04:46In the Grove.

04:47And when you look at South Carolina, there are two other losses against eight-win LSU

04:52at home, by the way.

04:53And on the road against Alabama, they covered in both of those games, keeping them way highly

04:58more competitive than I think the oddsmakers expected.

05:01Again, some more thought in terms of just what the committee has used.

05:05That's where I differ a little bit.

05:06No, I agree.

05:07And Miami, though, to me, should be in the top ten.

05:10I really believe that.

05:11But ACC has not gotten the love that they deserve.

05:15And it's unfortunate.

05:16It started last year.

05:17And this is the way, this is the landscape of college football where one conference gets,

05:22I want to say, bashed.

05:23And it started last year.

05:24And the ACC, unfortunately, is only going to get one coming in.

05:27Well, I think, again, like to the point of the committee, right?

05:31Hey, sit down, take a deep breath, stop doing week-to-week rankings.

05:34They can't go, you know what?

05:35They have to do it.

05:36It's a money-grant.

05:37It is.

05:38But here's the thing.

05:40You can do it differently without having the actual committee.

05:44Like ESPN can do a show without the committee.

05:48They can have their crew come on, give their projected brackets, debate, let Stephen A

05:55walk in with a cowboy hat, give his bracket, hasn't watched the game all year, I know I'm

05:59not supposed to say it, whatever.

06:00They don't need the committee.

06:02Here's why.

06:03Syracuse should be ranked in front of Clemson.

06:06Syracuse has the win over Miami and the win over top 20 UNLV, but they haven't ranked

06:11CUS all year.

06:12Right.

06:13So now they go, uh.

06:14What do we do?

06:15Meanwhile, they're behind UNLV, who they beat.

06:17Right.

06:18Which, where head-to-head was the big thing in the top 12.

06:21And like you said last year, if we use the committee's criteria for the entirety of their

06:26rankings and not just, okay, these four, and then the two behind them, you would find

06:30some flaws as they did Ohio state as a three touchdown home favorite against a six win

06:36Michigan team lost outright, fell four spots.

06:40And they're like, Hey, you're going to be in the college football playoff.

06:42And I understand the quality of victories that the Buckeyes do have this year, as opposed

06:46to Miami, Miami on the road still as a double digit favorite loses to a nine win Syracuse

06:51team in fall, six spots.

06:54And now out of the projected bracket, the math isn't really mapping.

06:58We see when you use the logistics that the committee has tried to display, this is the

07:02problem with they do that.

07:04Are they putting head to head?

07:05Is that more important?

07:06There's no parameters.

07:07I think here's the thing moving forward next year, they need to either have a point system,

07:14but they won't.

07:15They didn't in the 10 year system.

07:16Week to week.

07:17They would change criteria.

07:18What was most important.

07:20And the committee changes every year and TV.

07:23I hate to say this, but TV revenue matters in regards to matchups, Alabama, Notre Dame,

07:29that particular matchup, they know Garner's money.

07:31And I'm not saying that's what they're pushing for, but they would like that much more than

07:35Iowa state and Alabama or Iowa state and Clemson.

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