00:00Moving number, college football today, Alabama, Mississippi State, down to four and a half as these Bulldog tickets keep on
00:09coming in.
00:09There were some sixes out there earlier, actually not even all that long ago, but those are gone.
00:14We're five and a half everywhere except for, again, a loose four and a hook hanging out on FanDuel.
00:20This total no surprise has been coming up.
00:23We're seeing 61 and a half.
00:24I think there's a 62 and a half out there now as people are clicking away.
00:30And those two directions are in line with my favorite way to bet this game today, which is actually a
00:40Mississippi State team total over.
00:44Now, I am sure plenty of people will be like, whoa, you're going to leave Bama out of this?
00:48I'm not going to be sitting there rooting to keep Bama out of the end zone.
00:52Keep this game pacey and loose.
00:55It's about the 27 and a half on a Miss State team who have, again, cleared this number with absolute
01:02ease in all of their games.
01:04Where I think you could argue have played a tougher schedule so far.
01:09Again, the trip to Minnesota, I think, has only aged better, right?
01:13South Carolina is tougher than hosting South Carolina.
01:16And Mizzou, here's the thing, man.
01:19Everyone gets so angry when Missouri is ranked 25th.
01:23Missouri is probably like the 22nd or 3rd or 4th best team in the country.
01:27They just can't beat the actual good teams in the country.
01:30I'm sorry we're not ranking your G6 North Texas team who would absolutely lose all of those games as well.
01:37Like, just get over it.
01:38Oh, rank Tulsa.
01:39No, they got drilled by Arkansas.
01:41Beat it.
01:41With that said, I think backing Mississippi State, because if you tell me, hey, Mississippi State covers, they scored 28.
01:50They won outright.
01:52They scored 28.
01:53They got blown out.
01:55They definitely scored 28.
01:57Because that, like, they're going to put up some garbage time points here.
02:01I just, I don't see a pathway here.
02:03The Crimson Tide defense, and I know this will resonate with you, Dave, the secondary allowing Ashton Daniels and Florida
02:14State to average 13 yards per pass attempt, 377 yards through the air, told me Kamario Taylor could be in
02:25for a big day.
02:27So, I am singling out a Miss State team total at home over 27 and a half.
02:35I do love the subtle way you reminded me that Florida State covered in that game, and we were head
02:39-to-head.
02:40But you are right.
02:40That Alabama defense.
02:42I know you don't respect that several teams, so anything that they did positively, I'm like, this is how I
02:47sell them.
02:47Right.
02:48And I've been all over Alabama since before the season started, and that game gave me pause.
02:52They won the game, and their offense was fantastic, but allowing Florida State to score as many as they did
02:57and having to rally late, you know, after the lightning delay gave me a little bit pause.
03:02And that pause is going to come to fruition today when Kamario Taylor meets that defense.
03:06And I thought about taking the Alabama team total over in this game.
03:10I was on with Tim Murray on the Betting with Behrman podcast a couple of days ago, and he made
03:15the case for Alabama team total over 33 and a half.
03:18And I've heard your case for Mississippi State over 27 and a half.
03:23I'm just going to take the game because both offenses are good.
03:27You just talked about the Alabama defense, and I'll add that they're allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt.
03:35Kamario Taylor is just licking his lips looking at 8.1 yards per pass attempt, which is 119th in the
03:41country.
03:41They rank 128th in preventing 20-yard completions.
03:46Taylor's going to get that today.
03:47So, you're right that Mississippi State is going to score, but so is Alabama.
03:52Alabama averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt, 13th in the country, 315 yards per game.
03:58They are very, very good.
04:00So, I like both offenses.
04:01You know I'm not an overs guy to begin with.
04:03That's why they call me the undertaker, especially in the National Football League.
04:07But these are two fantastic offenses with two fantastic quarterbacks, and it reminds me of the old Big 12 days
04:14where defense just isn't necessary.
04:16So, I expect a shootout down there in Stark Vegas, and I don't love playing numbers in the 60s, but
04:23when you've got two great offenses and two great defenses, if you like Mississippi State to score 28, and others
04:30like Alabama to score 33, simple math will tell you that will take you over 60.
04:34I like the over 60 points.
04:36I'm taking it.
04:37That is one of my plays today.
04:38It's just these two offenses are so good.
04:41So good.
04:42And the quarterbacks are fantastic, and I think you're going to see both of them on Heisman lists moving forward.
04:46So good.
04:46So good.
