Why is Hurricane Rafael heading west after rapidly strengthening?

AccuWeather

AccuWeather forecasters break down why Rafael is making a sharp turn toward Mexico after slamming into Cuba as a major hurricane.

Transcript

00:00Now on Wednesday our I-Path had the storm. Well we talked about a fork in the road.

00:04One pathway to the north, another one to the west. Now since then we have kind of shifted

00:12toward the west Ari. Yeah one of the scenarios that we've been telling you about. Take a listen.

00:18Always forks in the road with these tropical storms and hurricanes where it could go one way

00:23or the other. Well here's a classic example. There is a possibility on Thursday that this

00:28takes a western shift. If that happens I think there may be zero impacts along the United States.

00:33This could just go westward. There's a lot of wind shear that's increasing in the Gulf of Mexico

00:38later this week and there may not be anything left. Yeah and here we go on that western track.

00:44All right with that I do want to bring in our hurricane expert Alex Da Silva. We take a look

00:50right now at Cancun Mexico. Not the prettiest days here with quite a bit of clouds and you know Alex

00:56kind of a little hint that Rafael is about ready to change its direction. It's been moving to the

01:02west northwest is the fact that the forward speed which yesterday at this time was about

01:0813-14 miles per hour is down the nine. Yeah it's starting to hit the brakes right now. A big area

01:13of high pressure to the north that's what's steering this thing right now and we're thinking

01:18that that area of high pressure is going to remain very strong and that's why we're expecting the

01:21storm not to really turn to the north right now. Should be steady as she goes there to the west

01:27there but it's maintaining its strength right now still a category two hurricane. Water vapor loop

01:33there's a ton of dry air Alex to in its pathway although I don't see any dry air coming into the

01:40center of circulation at least now so I don't think dry air do you think the dry air is having

01:45any impact? Not right now it's not you can really see that green expanding around the center of

01:50circulation so the storm is maintaining itself at the current moment the wind shear around the

01:55system's moderate but really it really strengthens to the north there so even if the storm does try

02:01to sneak a little bit further to the north it's really going to run into a lot of wind shear.

02:05Now as we just talked about earlier in the week we talked about a pathway a fork in the road

02:11that would be today either to the west or to the north and now the pattern as you mentioned

02:16dictating that this is going to go west. Yeah it certainly does look like that and I'll tell you

02:21this I think the fact that the storm strengthened so much yesterday into a major hurricane that can

02:26actually help to strengthen the high the storm actually I believe strengthened the high to the

02:30north so it's almost controlling its own path a little bit and so with the high a little bit

02:35stronger it does look like it's going to be taking more of that western track cannot be a hundred

02:40percent discounted that the storm won't make its way to the north but it does look like it's going

02:45to head west and even if it does try to sneak like I said to the north it's just going to run

02:49into a wall of wind shear which would tear it apart I think before it could even get to the

02:54United States. And this is the first hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico this hurricane season

03:00Alex that will not make landfall in the United States. Let's take a look at this second system

03:07well we've been monitoring this all week Alex. Yeah we certainly have an area coming towards the

03:12the islands way out there but there's a lot of wind shear and and as this comes through the

03:17islands I think it's really going to get disrupted again we have very high mountains over Hispaniola,

03:22Cuba, Puerto Rico and so as this tropical wave comes through it it just looks like it's really

03:27going to struggle a little bit I think if it was in the middle of September maybe a bit of a

03:32different story but since we're in November now I think it's going to have a really really tough

03:36time getting going. Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex De Silva thanks for joining us here

03:41on Accuweather Early Alex.

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