00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. May has arrived, summer is not far
00:05away and of course we've got two bank holiday weekends coming up. So naturally the weather
00:09is about to turn much colder. A return of night time frosts into the weekend and even
00:15some white stuff just in a few locations. But it's not all bad news for the bank holiday
00:20weekend. More on that in a moment. The trend after the bank holiday weekend is that low
00:24pressure is more likely to influence our weather than high pressure. But that will
00:29mean different things depending on where you are. And of course May is famously a decent
00:34month of weather in the west of Scotland. Could that still be the case? Well, let's
00:39find out. Because actually May doesn't start off very well across northern and western
00:44Scotland. There will be a lot of cloud on Thursday, some rain. Elsewhere sunny spells
00:48but also some lively showers. Hail and thunder across central parts of Britain. Still quite
00:52warm in the south. Cold air pushing into the far north and that's because of developments
00:58over the states over the next couple of days. You can see on Wednesday some very severe
01:03thunderstorms developing across this area. Quite common actually at this time of year.
01:09But the hail and the tornadoes and the severe storms here are due to this area of very humid
01:15air pushing north across the states and helping to nudge the jet stream north as well. And
01:21of course what happens over here to the jet stream has ripple effects, has a consequence
01:27downstream. It then dives south and then it pushes north and then south again and that
01:32means that we are on the side of the jet stream that is likely to drag northerly winds across
01:38the UK for the end of this week. And really quite cold northerlies with the air coming
01:43all the way from Spitsbergen. And those deep blues then make their way across the UK for
01:49the end of the week. You can see Friday is the day of change with 17 still possible in
01:54the south but 7 further north. Cloud and rain in between. And with that colder air, those
02:00northerlies setting in for parts of Scotland, we could even see some sleet and snow coming
02:05through in some of the showers. And these will be showers and then they will affect
02:08north sea coasts for Saturday. And those showers will be quite lively. Hail and thunder a possibility
02:15for eastern counties of England. Still some of the white stuff coming through for parts
02:20of Scotland. But further west, actually, sunny spells. And temperatures, well, they don't
02:26look that cold. 13, 14 degrees possible in the sunnier spots. Single figures on the north
02:31sea coast. When you add the wind, it will feel cold. 4 or 5 degrees or even 2 in places.
02:40So cold wind through Saturday and then those winds fall a bit lighter on Saturday night
02:45which means a widespread frost to wake up to on Sunday. Gardeners, growers, farmers,
02:49beware of frosty or even a sharp frost in places as we start off on Sunday. Temperatures
02:56a couple of degrees below freezing in some of the colder spots. So what's the good news
03:01for the bank holiday weekend? Well, it's this. High pressure is building in for Sunday and
03:07into Monday. It's building in from the west. It will push any showers away and keep any
03:11rain confined to the north of Scotland which means that most places will have a dry and
03:14bright day on Sunday and the wind will be lighter which means that it won't feel quite
03:18as cold after that frosty start. And Monday is looking fairly similar. There will still
03:24be a lot of cloud in the sky as we head into bank holiday Monday, especially across northern
03:28Britain and a few showers are possible here and there. But it's not a washout. Many places
03:34will be dry and bright and like I say, the winds will be lighter so it's not going to
03:37feel as cold. Now, this is what it's looking like as we head into next week. We've got
03:41low pressure either side of us and this slither of high pressure giving us those mostly fine
03:46conditions for the start of next week. But things are brewing to the west of us over
03:52the Atlantic. The jet stream, this fast flowing current of air high in the sky, well it's
03:56going to start to bring areas of low pressure our way into the start of next week. There
04:01is a small chance that high pressure will remain somewhat influential through next week
04:05but the greater chance is that we'll see the jet stream start to become more active
04:11in this part of the Atlantic. So at relatively low latitudes and that means any low pressure
04:17systems it creates will be sent towards the south west of the UK. And you can see the
04:23difference quite clearly on this. It's basically just an illustration of whether we're likely
04:29to have high pressure or low pressure. More likely to have high pressure, red colours.
04:34More likely to have low pressure, blue colours. And these are the dates that the forecast
04:38is valid for. So we're looking at Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. You can see on
04:43the latest run of computer models, these are the recent computer model runs going back
04:49in time, the very latest ones all suggest blues low pressure through next week. Where
04:57will that low pressure end up? Well, because that jet stream is at relatively low latitudes,
05:03that low pressure is likely to end up around the south west of the UK, which means that
05:07across south western and southern parts of Britain it will often be windy, there'll be
05:12rain at times through next week. However, northern and western Scotland, true to form
05:18for the month of May, looks likely to have a drier and more settled week of weather.
05:24Still some uncertainty of course, we're looking at ten days ahead. Beyond that, now this is
05:29the same graphic, blues indicate low pressure, reds indicate high pressure. Beyond that,
05:34looking at Saturday and Sunday into the middle of May, reds return. So some suggestion there,
05:41some hope on the horizon that the weather will settle down once again. But that's a
05:44long way off of course, and you can keep up to date with all the very latest updates via
05:48the Met Office social media channels and via the Met Office app. Bye bye.
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