All of Florida's west coast should prepare for the possibility of catastrophic storm surge

AccuWeather

The path of Hurricane Milton could shift south, sparing Tampa from the worst of the storm surge, but no matter what, part of the coast will be facing extreme conditions.

Transcript

00:00We're back into an extraordinarily low 902 millibar hurricane.

00:05That's a category 5 hurricane.

00:07To help us break down some of the details of the storm surge,

00:09we're joined now by AccuWeather hurricane expert and Senior Director of Forecast Operations, Dan DePodwin.

00:14Dan, this is a powerhouse of a storm, and I know that it is a huge, huge issue here for Florida.

00:22We're concerned about the storm surge, the wind, and the flooding rain, but that storm surge is a huge, huge concern.

00:27It is probably the most concerning part of Milton, along with the other hazards that you mentioned, Jeff.

00:33And one of the reasons that we're so concerned about the surge is because of the fact that Milton here,

00:37as you can see on satellite, is a powerful category 5 hurricane,

00:40the strongest on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

00:43So that means that the wind field is really going to – all that surge here is going to be –

00:49is moving towards the Florida coast as we head through the day tomorrow.

00:52A category 5 storm with those very strong winds helps to really pile up the water over the ocean here,

00:57and as it approaches the coast and the bottom shallows up there is when you really see that storm surge.

01:03So that's why we're so concerned about it here along the west coast of Florida Wednesday night.

01:08And, Dan, we are expecting this to make landfall specifically around 2 a.m.

01:12The million-dollar question – and, again, we want to be transparent with our viewers – is where does that occur?

01:18There is a conceivable way that it's not the worst-case scenario for Tampa if it comes south,

01:22but it's certainly very likely that it may indeed come in as far north as Pinellas County.

01:27So it's a tricky communication angle here trying to keep people prepared

01:31for what could be a 15- to 20-foot storm surge in Tampa Bay.

01:34Absolutely, Jeff.

01:35We want people to prepare and take the action that local officials have provided to them.

01:40We are still predicting a landfall right near the mouth of Tampa Bay.

01:43It could be – I think if it's going to be in a different direction,

01:45it's more likely to be just south of Tampa Bay, which could spare Tampa of the worst potential impacts.

01:52But that is still not something that we want to rule out at this time.

01:57It's definitely something that we are predicting and something that we are very concerned about.

02:01So, really, anywhere from just north of Tampa down through Sarasota, Bradenton, Venice,

02:06even down to Fort Myers all have to be prepared for a significant, catastrophic storm surge with Milton.

02:11And I think, overall, there's no way that an area near or south of Tampa will avoid a catastrophic storm surge.

02:18Somebody is going to face it just on the immediate south side of this.

02:21So how is our team playing this at this point here?

02:25You said there might be, again, a conversation within the hour of an update to that I-PATH.

02:30Yeah, we're poring over the latest data here that's just come in.

02:34We may be making a slight shift south of the landfall point.

02:36But, again, the key message here is not to focus on the specific landfall point,

02:40but to really understand the risks along the west coast of Florida, especially from a storm surge perspective,

02:45and then also the wind risk inland across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday night.

02:50All right, Dan DePauw, great insight there.

02:53And there is our official forecast, a 15- to 20-foot storm surge for Tampa Bay,

02:57and especially south through western parts of Manatee County and on south into the Naples area,

03:02huge concerns also into the Charlotte Harbor.

03:04Thanks again, Dan.

03:05You're welcome, Jeff.

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