00:00Category 5, one of the three fastest-strengthening, most rapidly-intensifying hurricanes to reach Category 5 intensity from A1 as the starting point in the Atlantic Basin history.
00:11One of the three strongest, so one of the three fastest to accelerate an increase in intensity.
00:17We want to talk about what's going on with this storm.
00:19And, well, to help us break down some of the details, we're joined now by AccuWeather hurricane expert and Senior Director of Forecast Operations, Dan DePodman.
00:27Dan, thank you for making time for us.
00:29This storm has a pinhole eye, and that is kind of a sign of the health of this storm.
00:34It's a tenacious one right now.
00:36Yeah, it is, Jeff.
00:37And the hurricane has been flying through here this evening, and they found in the last pass just shortly, a short time ago, a four-mile diameter eye.
00:45And that's one of the smallest on record, the smallest being Wilma from 2005, a 2.3 nautical mile eye in Wilma.
00:52So, again, one of the strongest hurricanes you'll ever see here in Milton as it churns near the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.
00:58And when we look at what the nighttime might bring, we're going to be kind of scraping the north side of the Yucatan Peninsula.
01:05And there may be, it seems that the eyes, when you have a very intact hurricane, at some point, we use the phrase eyewall replacement cycle,
01:15because these storms do change character, but also the nature of the storm begins to change after going through that process.
01:20So what's that all about?
01:21Well, we have the same eye tomorrow, and how might the format of the storm change?
01:25Yeah, it's hard for a hurricane to maintain this compact of structure with this tight of a circulation for a long period of time.
01:30Usually, you see this for maybe 12 to 24 hours.
01:33And it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle.
01:34We're starting to see signs of that here.
01:36I'm taking a look at some of the radar from Mexico this evening, and we'll see it on satellite here probably in the next couple of hours,
01:41where usually the eyewall sort of replaces itself, and that usually broadens the wind field, and you get a new eyewall that starts to set up here.
01:48So the concern in those situations is that the wind field usually expands, and that can even make it a more dangerous storm
01:54because that expansive wind field can generate more storm surge as Milton approaches the coast.
01:59And we want to talk about that, and especially just if we looked at where this storm has been earlier today.
02:04It's been in an area where a lot of the history of hurricanes are actually crossing the Yucatan and moving west
02:10and then curving north into Louisiana.
02:12In this case, it's moving generally the opposite direction,
02:15so there's a very short list of storms that have actually moved in this trajectory.
02:19Yeah, that's an important note about Milton, is that we don't have a lot of recent precedent for what the track of Milton is,
02:26meaning that if you live along the west coast of Florida, there hasn't been a storm that has taken this trajectory at this strength really in your lifetime.
02:32The storm of note that is really the storm of record in Tampa is the 1921 hurricane.
02:38There's other storms that have obviously impacted the Tampa Bay region.
02:40Many of them have come from the south and gone up to the west, bringing a storm surge and some gusty winds.
02:45The track, though, across the Gulf of Mexico from west to east is very unusual and is also very dangerous
02:50because this long area of water that's going to cross over can really help to generate increased storm surge.
02:56And one of these was from 1859, and just so much has changed.
03:00Heck, just with the advent of air conditioning a half century after that,
03:04that's what drove people from the northeast and from the Great Lakes to move down to Tampa.
03:08Lovely place to be, very dangerous with this particular setup.
03:11Absolutely, and that's why we are very concerned here.
03:13Even though you see a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale now and a 3 at landfall,
03:18don't have that let your guard down because of the fact that even a category 3 hurricane,
03:22a major hurricane with winds above 111 mph or greater is still a very significant one,
03:28and the impacts are going to be widespread and life-threatening in terms of storm surge.
03:34We'll put this in motion here as Milton approaches later Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday,
03:38a storm surge from Tampa on south.
03:40That could be on the order of 10 feet in some places, including those that were impacted by the Ian storm surge two years ago.
03:46By Wednesday evening when Milton is expected to make landfall around midnight into Thursday morning,
03:51the worst storm surge up near Tampa Bay, that could be a historic, devastating storm surge.
03:56We're very concerned about that, and just a jog a few miles in either direction can really make the difference.
04:01And there will be a surge on the back side of this, too, on the south side of the west coast of Florida
04:05here down by Fort Myers and Naples as Milton goes by us to the east and the winds turn around to the northwest.
04:11So the best-case scenario for Tampa would be for the storm to come in a little farther south,
04:16but there will still be impacts there, and if that happens, it's just going to displace the greatest impacts farther south.
04:22So, Dan, you know, some storms are easier to talk about and communicate about than others.
04:27This is a tough communication challenge for Tampa, given the uncertainty of just a 20-mile difference in the point of landfall.
04:34It sure is.
04:35This impact here of a 15- to 20-foot storm surge, we're pretty confident exactly where that's going to be
04:41is going to really determine, or the exact track of Milton will really determine where that exact placement is going to be.
04:47Right now with that landfall expected right near Tampa Bay, that storm surge will be brought right directly into the bay,
04:52and that would be significant.
04:54Life-threatening could be catastrophic storm surge in some places,
04:56but a 20-mile shift to the south would spare Tampa Bay of most of the impacts,
05:01but shift it down towards Venice and Sarasota and Bradenton.
05:04Again, those places have not experienced much in the way of historic hurricanes lately either.
05:09A shift farther north would also be concerning for Tampa Bay.
05:12So we still have a day or so to be looking at this, but if you live in these areas,
05:16please pay attention to local officials and take their advice when it comes to evacuations.
05:21And there is no scenario through which the entire Florida Gulf Coast is spared.
05:25Somebody's going to face a double-digit storm surge for sure.
05:29It's going to be highly destructive somewhere within 50 or 60 miles of Tampa.
05:33Absolutely. The west coast is our significant concern here as we look at Milton this evening.
05:38But also if you live farther south down towards Naples and then even along the east coast of Florida up towards Jacksonville,
05:43because of the continuous winds from the east here, we do expect a couple to several feet of storm surge
05:48that can cause at least minor coastal inundation along the east coast of the peninsula.
05:52Absolutely. Well, Dan, we appreciate all your insight.
05:55There's one final closing word you could say for anybody listening.
05:58They're in Tampa. They're on the fence. Should I evacuate or not?
06:01I'm at 15 feet elevation. What would that be?
06:04To me, if you have the choice to evacuate in Tampa, please evacuate.
06:07I mean, I think this is the time to do it here.
06:10And in general, it's better to be safe now when you can make that decision versus waiting
06:14when the decision will be taken out of your hands and you won't be able to do so.
06:17And Wednesday is not an option. A lot of people are taking a long time to get out here.
06:22Traffic is way backed up, so tomorrow is going to be a mess for travel, but earliest is best.
06:27Dan DePodwin, senior director of forecast operations and hurricane meteorologist.
06:30Thanks for your insight there, Dan.
06:32Yeah, you're welcome, Jeff.
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