Hurricane Milton could cause catastrophic impacts in the Tampa area

AccuWeather

AccuWeather forecasters are warning that Hurricane Milton's extreme storm surge and powerful winds could cause widespread devastation on the west coast of Florida.

Transcript

00:00John, this is a really dangerous storm, and again, this has really wrapped up here over

00:04the past 12 to 18 hours in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

00:08So what's been contributing to its current status?

00:11It sure has.

00:12And we see people on the move on that live shot from Tampa, evacuations underway, which

00:17is very critical along the west coast of Florida, especially those areas susceptible to storm

00:22surge.

00:23This is going to be a life-threatening impact across many portions of Florida here in the

00:28coming days.

00:29All the factors coming together for this storm to intensify very rapidly, as it did this

00:34morning.

00:35Now a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, and look, it's going to take a

00:39northeast turn, a very unusual track into the Tampa Bay area.

00:44And our hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about catastrophic impacts in the

00:51Tampa Bay area.

00:52We do not use those words lightly, and we're using such strong language because we're particularly

00:57concerned about the storm surge, about the devastating winds and the flooding rainfall

01:03from Tampa east along I-4 toward Orlando and Daytona Beach as well.

01:09And we've just nudged back the point of landfall, the timing of landfall to around 11 p.m. most

01:13likely on Wednesday.

01:14But it's all about the impacts of that storm surge, John, at least that's a huge story

01:18here.

01:19And the angle through which this storm is going to come in, especially dangerous for

01:22some of these concave areas of the coastline that are highly populated.

01:26It sure is.

01:27That's the risk here.

01:28We have many people in harm's way with this setup.

01:31That's why those evacuations along the coastal areas where storm surge is such a threat is

01:35such a big issue here.

01:38And there's going to be a long fetch of gulf water that's being directed.

01:42It's going to be an inundation right into the coastline and all those bays and inlets

01:47here along the west coast of Florida.

01:50And with a track near or directly north of Tampa Bay, that puts Tampa Bay in the northeast

01:57quadrant of the storm.

01:59And that is where the worst impacts are going to be.

02:01But don't let your guard down anywhere here along the west coast of Florida, all the way

02:05down to Port Charlotte and Fort Myers and Naples.

02:08Because as this graphic shows, even when Milton is off the Atlantic coast, the winds around

02:13the storm are still going to be pushing water of all places back into the west coast of

02:18Florida.

02:19So it's a prolonged and extreme storm surge.

02:22And certainly holding that high water up into Tampa Bay even at that time as well with that

02:27kind of a trajectory.

02:28So again, Mr. Porter, we have some huge impacts here.

02:31We haven't seen a storm quite like this really since the 1800s in the Tampa Metro with this

02:36trajectory.

02:37So so much has changed there with the coastline, with society and huge explosions of population.

02:42So what are we expecting regarding the storm surge by the numbers?

02:45Well, that's the problem is that there's so much.

02:47This is one of the most population dense areas of Florida, Tampa Bay, Bradenton, Sarasota,

02:54down to Fort Myers and Naples as well.

02:56And then the inland areas that are going to face those destructive winds and heavy rainfall

03:00as big concern in those in those dense populated areas along the I-4 corridor.

03:05But look at the numbers here.

03:07We're talking about a 15 to 20 foot, 15 to 20 foot storm surge, multiple feet.

03:13If you think about a building multiple feet high of water that can that will move into

03:19these bays and inlets and inundate anything in its path from Tampa Bay south toward the

03:25area near Venice and Naples.

03:28And then, of course, a six to 10 foot still life threatening storm surge into the Naples

03:32area.

03:33So this is a big problem.

03:34There will be dangerous storm surges as well along much of the east coast of Florida as

03:39well as the winds around the storm direct that water from the Atlantic toward the east

03:43coast of Florida as well.

03:44So look out for you in Jacksonville down toward the Space Coast as well.

03:48A big problem with storm surge in this particular storm.

03:52And we saw what happened just less than two weeks ago with a five, six, six and a half

03:57foot storm surge in some areas of the Tampa and Pinellas County area there near St. Pete.

04:03And that was a huge impact.

04:04If this storm indeed comes just barely north of the city and some of those Pinellas County

04:08beaches, we're looking at something that would far exceed what we saw late two weeks

04:12ago.

04:13Yes.

04:14And I want to highlight that.

04:15That is why we are talking about the worst case hurricane scenario for Tampa Bay with

04:20the storm moving just north of Tampa Bay and directing all that water into the Tampa Bay

04:26region.

04:27So, again, a 15 to 20 foot storm surge possible and AccuWeather local storm max of 23 feet

04:34in the hardest impacted areas.

04:35So that showcases just how dangerous that water is going to be.

04:38And I'm just going to urge everyone once again, if you live or if you have family members

04:43along those coastal areas, especially where there's a mandatory evacuation in place, please

04:49take that very seriously.

04:51You can save your own life or help save the life of somebody else by taking those evacuation

04:56orders seriously.

04:58And the wind, as you mentioned, John, we're going to be dealing with some long term power

05:02outages as well in many, many areas with tremendous tree fall that will accompany this

05:06storm in central Florida as well.

05:08Yes, this is a huge problem as well, because look at where the the core of this destructive

05:13wind goes right along the I-4 corridor, Orlando, right into your vicinity and then east toward

05:19Daytona Beach and areas along the east coast of Florida.

05:22So again, we're getting the most populated, densely populated part of the Florida peninsula

05:27here with the greatest wind impacts.

05:30And we're going to be talking about the risk for wind gusts between 100 and 120 miles per

05:34hour coming right in through that I-4 corridor.

05:37That's going to cause widespread property damage and lead to widespread and long lasting

05:43power outages.

05:44So if you live inland where storm surge is not a threat, but the flooding rainfall and

05:49the destructive winds will be a threat, please make sure you have a safe place to ride out

05:52the storm.

05:53You're going to want to be in the interior part of your home away from windows and also

05:57make sure that you have enough supplies to sustain yourself for several days in case

06:04you're not able to get around and power outages become a big problem as we're expecting.

06:08Yeah, you want some non-perishable food, something you can get along and get by without the help

06:13of refrigeration or the microwave and so forth.

06:16AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter, thanks again for that update, John.

06:19Good to be with you.

06:21All right.

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