Francine expected to become hurricane before landfall

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter monitor the formation of Francine, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday, Sept. 11.

Transcript

00:00Maximum stay winds 65 miles per hour.

00:02The key stat on this graphic now is the movement.

00:06It is now north at five miles per hour.

00:08It was north-northwest.

00:10We expected that movement to turn toward the north.

00:13That has already happened.

00:15And then we're going to be looking to a north and northeast movement over the next 24 to

00:2036 hours.

00:21Joining me right now is AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

00:25You know, John, this has been such a very unusual hurricane season.

00:30This time of the year, we're looking for these long-track hurricanes, hurricanes that form

00:36way out in Atlantic and you have days and days to track.

00:40But this is not what has happened to Francine.

00:43It was more of a homegrown situation here as it formed yesterday.

00:49And it was strengthening, but it just goes to show you how perfect you need conditions

00:54for intensification because there was just a little bit of dry air that came into the

00:59storm center.

01:03Just the conditions have to be perfect, just like a great play in a sports, in any type

01:08of a sporting event, all the conditions have to come together just right for that play

01:12to happen.

01:13Same thing with when we're dealing with the atmosphere and to get an intensifying and

01:17especially rapidly intensifying tropical storm or hurricane.

01:20So the intensification process, though, is starting.

01:23We could see a improved presentation here on the satellite loop.

01:27And as it continues to traverse very warm water that is prime for hurricane or tropical

01:33storm and hurricane development, we're expecting this would become a more intense storm.

01:36You know, John, let's take a look at the water temperatures.

01:38I mean, they're plenty warm enough.

01:40They're in the middle 30s.

01:41But we have another product, John, that gives gives you a little more extra information.

01:47It's called the ocean heat content.

01:50And what it does is it looks at the depth of the warm water.

01:54So how warm it is is how deep the warm water is.

01:57And it gives you a number.

01:59And explain to our viewers how impressive this number is.

02:02Well, it's extremely high when you look at the long term historic average, in fact, record

02:07high in terms of that ocean heat content.

02:10And look at it's that red line on this graphic.

02:12And you can see that it's well above the blue line, which is the long term average.

02:16And there's no lines above it.

02:18So that means 2024 is the highest ocean heat content for the Gulf of Mexico when it's

02:24averaged across the entire Gulf.

02:26So this is, again, why we've been talking about the warm water and how that can be a

02:30significant impact to intensify a storm, which, of course, means greater wind, storm surge

02:36and other impacts from the storm.

02:39Three ingredients, John, for formation, warm water, sufficient moisture.

02:44We think we're going to get that second one later today.

02:47Let's talk about the wind shear.

02:49That's always another factor that we're looking at.

02:51And again, when we are considering wind shear, we're talking about wind shear is the is when

02:55you have changing wind speed and direction as you go up through the atmosphere.

02:59And when you have wind shear present in the atmosphere that can slow the intensification

03:05or prevent the intensification of a tropical storm or hurricane.

03:08So for a storm to develop and especially rapidly develop, it needs to be in an area of low

03:13wind shear.

03:14And what do we have?

03:15Low wind shear right near the storm.

03:17So this is a favorable environment.

03:19But Bernie, as the storm continues to lift to the north, the shear is going to increase

03:23a bit.

03:24And that's one of the factors we've been looking at.

03:26But as you and I were talking about, here is what makes this difficult.

03:31You look at the purple.

03:33Once you get across the upper Texas coast, Louisiana, yes, the wind shear is increasing,

03:37but it's more than just the wind shear.

03:40It's the direction pertaining along with how it relates to the movement of Francine.

03:47And it's going to be steered to the northeast.

03:50And the wind shear is coming in out of the west-southwest, John, so I've been talking

03:53about this morning.

03:54It's almost like when you take a walk in the evening and you have a gusty wind.

03:57Is the wind coming at you or at your back?

04:00And if it's at your back, it's not as detrimental?

04:02Right.

04:03And you don't notice it as much, right?

04:05It's not as problematic when you've got a wind at your back versus a cool wind right

04:10in your face.

04:11That's a great analogy.

04:12And so the storm is going to have that wind at its back because it's going to be moving

04:15to the north and east as it's guided by that jet stream disturbance.

04:19And so that shear is going to be along the track of the storm.

04:23So that means that we think it's going to have less of an impact in terms of reducing

04:27the wind intensity.

04:29And Bernie, this can be intensifying all the way as it gets to the coast, which of course

04:33can prolong impacts.

04:35And with a shift a little bit further to the east, that could mean bigger power outage

04:39and wind issues as well as storm surge in the New Orleans metro.

04:43So John, you and I were just talking about this.

04:45You know, we were talking about what's the probability?

04:48We have a Category 2 hurricane at landfall, 96 to 100 miles per hour.

04:52What's the probability that it becomes a Category 3?

04:55It's interesting.

04:56In my mind, it's about 30 percent and you were thinking about 20 percent, 15 to 20.

05:00Yeah, I was thinking 15 to 20, right.

05:02So we can't rule it out.

05:03And that's why we want people to be prepared for a higher impact storm along the Louisiana

05:08coastline right up into Baton Rouge, New Orleans, again, where if the wind is, if the

05:14wind speed is higher, there will be more power outage concerns and that could be a significant

05:18issue there.

05:19So make sure you have plenty of supplies in those areas in case you lose power, could

05:24be for days in some areas.

05:25The other concern we have, John, we have that big upper high across the Midwest.

05:30And that means as Francine loses wind intensity as we get into Wednesday, that high may block

05:37that system from moving.

05:38And that's a concern for a stalling either tropical depression or tropical rainstorm

05:43Thursday into Friday across western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.

05:47That's an excellent point.

05:48Our team of over 100 expert meteorologists and hurricane experts were just discussing

05:53that.

05:54That is actually going to be like a traffic jam in the atmosphere.

05:56It's going to slow the motion of the storm way down.

05:59And when that happens, you get persistent downpours over the same area.

06:02So please, all the way up the Mississippi Valley, don't let your guard down.

06:06This can become a very serious flooding concern in some of those areas as well.

06:11So impacts at the coast and far inland, download the AccuWeather app.

06:15We've got all this on great interactive maps so you can understand the impact in your community

06:20and around the area.

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