00:00 Hello there, this 10-day trend takes us into the start of meteorological spring but by the time we
00:04 get to the 1st of March will it feel much like spring? Well February so far has been quite wet
00:10 particularly for some areas of England and Wales but it's also been very mild across the whole of
00:16 the UK and that's because we've had very mild Atlantic air with us and we've got that at the
00:20 moment on as we start the 10-day trend on Wednesday. However through Thursday we will see a change as
00:26 cooler air does arrive so our temperatures will fall down much closer to average marking the
00:32 difference between that colder and milder air in our weather fronts and those will sweep across
00:37 the country through Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the details but we are expecting
00:42 a spell of very heavy rain and potentially some quite strong and squally winds so please make sure
00:49 you take a look at our day-to-day forecast for more details on that. But once that does clear
00:54 on Thursday evening into Friday we will be into a westerly regime we will have that cooler air
00:59 with us as well it's not significantly colder but it will just bring our temperatures much closer to
01:04 average whereas they have been abnormally high for this time of year recently. So with the westerly
01:11 wind we will see showers pulling in from the west they'll be most frequent across western areas but
01:16 we will still see some showers across the east fairly breezy as well for many areas on Friday
01:22 and some of the showers in the west could be quite long-lived and they also bring a risk of hail
01:27 and heavy downpours. As we've got that cooler air as I said temperatures are much closer to average
01:32 nines or tens in the south at best closer to six or seven or five degrees in the north however we
01:38 could start to see some snow falling over the high ground in any of these showers across parts of
01:43 Scotland. The showers though will die down through Friday night and into Saturday particularly though
01:50 in the east we could see some showers still lingering on Friday evening but from the west
01:55 they will die down through the course of the night so it will be a much drier picture by the time we
02:00 get to Saturday morning. As the winds turn full light as well that will allow some fog to develop
02:06 by Saturday morning there's some uncertainty in where exactly we'll see the fog develop as it is
02:11 a few days away of course however it's likely across central and eastern areas of England we
02:15 could see some quite extensive fog on Saturday morning. We'll also see a frost develop as well
02:20 with that cooler air upon us so anywhere across Wales, Northern England, Scotland potentially some
02:26 southern areas of England as well seeing a chilly start to the weekend but as I said it will be dry
02:32 for many areas however notice across the far south coast there is an area of showery rain
02:38 there's some uncertainty in the details with this also so there is the potential for some heavier
02:43 rain to linger across the south coast on Saturday morning. We'll also see showers pushing in to the
02:48 northwest of Scotland through the morning but by and large it will be a fairly dry day for many
02:52 areas there'll also be some sunshine so despite the fact we've got those cooler more average
02:57 temperatures for the time of year it won't be feeling too bad daylight hours are getting longer
03:03 and longer so it will be a fairly pleasant day for many areas but as I said there is some uncertainty
03:07 with quite how much rain and how strong the winds will be across the far south coast so please keep
03:12 up to date with the details on that through the rest of the week and then as we head into Sunday
03:18 there is another change in the weather we've got this band of rain moving in on Saturday night that
03:24 is a weather front and is wrapped around a low pressure system and as we head into Sunday that
03:30 low pressure system will track towards the south of the UK however there is a great deal of
03:35 uncertainty with how far north or south this low pressure system will sit it's likely it won't sit
03:41 much further north than northern areas of England so for the north of England it's actually a much
03:46 more certain picture for Sunday it's looking like a cloudier day than Saturday still a fairly
03:52 average temperatures for the time of year but many areas should stay largely dry however in the south
03:57 where this low pressure system will influence the weather there is some uncertainty so this is the
04:02 low pressure system and this is the weather front wrapped around it and this weather front around
04:07 this weather front is where we'll see quite a lot of heavy rain on Sunday but it's where that weather
04:11 front is which is where there are some uncertainty so let's have a look at where it could lie
04:16 this is a fairly messy map unfortunately it's called a spaghetti plot and it shows you the
04:21 distribution of where we could see those weather fronts it's a Met Office model it's an ensemble
04:26 forecast so it's a probability it shows you a probability of where the different fronts will
04:32 that it shows you the spread of where the fronts could lie on Sunday so you can see there are there
04:37 is one or two further north across the UK but most of them sit further to the south and west and some
04:43 of them actually only clip the far south coast and as a result there is quite a lot of uncertainty
04:48 with how much rain we'll see on Sunday and into Monday this shows you the 48-hour accumulations
04:56 of rainfall across the UK between Sunday and Monday here we have the Met Office model and here
05:01 we have the ECMWF model the European model both models that we look at regularly to get an idea
05:07 of the forecast but you can see the different models obviously have these weather fronts in
05:12 different positions with the Met Office model we've got quite a lot more rain predicted across
05:16 the UK and it looks much drier according to ECMWF it's worth noting though in the Met Office model
05:23 there's still some fairly high totals close to 20 or 30 millimetres within that 48-hour period as
05:29 well so there's there is a possibility that we could see some quite heavy rain through Sunday
05:34 and into Monday across the south but in both it's a fairly dry picture for more northern areas and
05:40 we've got quite a lot more confidence across the forecast for the north into the weekend as well
05:45 so in reality what we are predicting is going to happen through Sunday is probably something in
05:51 between the two of these so this shows us a good example of where we are most likely to see some
05:56 of the heavier rain this is the probability of seeing more than 10 millimetres falling in 24
06:02 hours now you can see that the redder the colour the greater the probability and where we've got
06:07 very pale colours that's a very low probability so it's very unlikely so it's most likely across
06:11 parts of south Wales and the south west but anywhere extending across to London and towards
06:17 Essex as well could see some of that heavier rain as well so there's the potential for some further
06:22 heavy rain on Sunday and into Monday and also potentially some locally strong winds as well
06:28 and following the very wet February it won't take much more further rainfall particularly
06:33 across England and Wales to cause some disruption from the rain so please keep up to date with the
06:37 details for the weekend we'll definitely be putting out lots more output through the rest
06:40 of the week to keep you in the loop so then as we head into Monday unfortunately we've still got
06:47 the low pressure system that brings that uncertainty with us but the idea is that
06:51 low pressure system will sink to the south taking with it those weather fronts so it could still be
06:56 a fairly wet day across the south on Monday but if that weather front does clear sooner on Sunday
07:02 well everywhere it should be into this cooler and drier setup that says a ridge of higher pressure
07:08 is set to build in from the northwest through the beginning of next week we will though have
07:13 colder air across the UK so that does mean that it will be feeling a bit colder to start next week
07:20 so how long will that higher pressure last well not too long at all it looks like this shows you
07:27 the pressure trend through next through the next two weeks blue show low pressure dominating the
07:32 weather and red show higher pressure dominating the weather and you can see from Monday to
07:37 Wednesday there are just hints of a break in that lower pressure that more unsettled weather
07:42 a break in that weather across the UK particularly on Tuesdays when we've got that ridge of high
07:47 pressure a 62% chance this shows you of that higher pressure dominating it's fairly high at
07:52 this time lead and however there is some uncertainty between Monday and Wednesday so at some point after
07:59 Wednesday we'll likely see that higher pressure break down but while it does last many areas will
08:03 see quite a lot of dry weather probably some chillier nights potentially some further fog and
08:08 definitely some frosts as well as I said from about Wednesday or Thursday next week that's when
08:15 we'll return to a more mobile and unsettled regime which means further heavy rain and some strong
08:22 winds as well the pressure setup that's most likely from Wednesday until the 1st of March until we
08:28 start meteorological spring it's for low pressure to build in from the north and west once again
08:33 this will likely bring weather fronts low pressure systems into northwestern areas so that's where
08:37 we'll probably see the heaviest rain through the week the red through the latter part of the week
08:41 in the south though high pressure it will probably dominate now and again through the week bringing
08:46 drier weather here however we will likely still see these weather fronts sweep across the whole
08:52 country bringing rain to many areas at times as that high pressure retreats to the southwest
08:57 allowing lower pressure to dominate bringing that more northwesterly wind direction showery
09:01 rain coming in from the northwest but also probably some weather fronts and longer spells of rain
09:06 but generally through the week the highest rainfall or the heaviest rainfall is most likely
09:11 going to be across northwestern areas northwestern Scotland northern Ireland northwest England those
09:15 sorts of areas but also into the southwest as well whereas the southeast though it won't be
09:20 entirely dry it will be drier than elsewhere in the country as there will be as I said strong
09:26 winds at times spells of wet weather too the temperatures are set to increase a little bit
09:32 as well so as we head into spring the start of spring the temperatures will rise a little bit
09:36 after a cooler start to next week so you can see on here we've got Glasgow on the top and London
09:43 on the bottom these are the meteorograms which show you the spread in the temperature trend for
09:47 the next two weeks red boxes are the maximum temperature and the blue boxes are the minimum
09:53 temperature so for Glasgow more northwestern area where we'll probably see that heavier rain
09:57 it's a similar trend to even where we'll see it even in the south in London where we'll see those
10:02 that drier weather similar trend in the temperature so to start next week we've got temperatures
10:08 falling towards average if not a little bit below by day and also by night the temperatures falling
10:14 below average as well however as we and that lasting into the start of next week however as we
10:21 trend towards Wednesday or Thursday so those temperatures start to pick up just a little bit
10:27 to average or just above average for both Glasgow and it's a similar trend timings a little bit
10:32 different as the air air takes a little while it takes different time it passes through different
10:37 areas at different times but the general trend is from sort of Wednesday next week onwards for
10:42 temperatures to return to a little bit above average so as we head into spring I guess the
10:47 main message for you is that it we're likely to see further wet weather however temperatures
10:53 are looking to rise a little bit again there is some further wet weather though on the weekend as
10:57 I've just explained so please keep up to date with the details on that and you can do that
11:01 by subscribing to our YouTube channel see you later on
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