- 2 years ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 13/02/2024.
It will be a mild couple of weeks across the UK. There are signs of some drier weather next week and then perhaps some colder weather to end February.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth.
It will be a mild couple of weeks across the UK. There are signs of some drier weather next week and then perhaps some colder weather to end February.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello and welcome to this week's Deep Dive. I'm Annie Shuttleworth. I'm a
00:04 meteorologist and presenter here at the Met Office and over the next 20 to 30
00:09 minutes I'm going to be talking everything about the weather this week,
00:13 this weekend and into the start of next week. I'll also at the end be talking
00:17 about when we can maybe expect to see the return of some colder weather. We'll
00:22 be discussing something called sudden stratospheric warming. If you don't know
00:26 what that means hold on I will tell you at the end. But if you've never come to
00:31 one of these Deep Dives before, welcome along. We record them every Tuesday and
00:35 we go into the depths of the weather for the week. If you're joining with our
00:39 premier I'll be around for the next 30 minutes answering all of your questions
00:43 but if you are watching later on please still comment. We will have a look
00:47 through your comments and questions. We love to get your feedback as well. Make
00:51 sure you share this video with anyone you think might be
00:54 interested as well. Right let's get started. So first of all we're going to
00:58 take a look at the weather not here in the UK but further closer to the United
01:02 States. Here you can see the US on the map here and we've got this low pressure
01:07 system here on Tuesday afternoon. This afternoon this is what we call a
01:11 northeaster storm. That's because it affects the northeastern areas of the US.
01:17 We're expecting to see some quite heavy rain, snow and some really strong winds
01:22 in this area for the next couple of hours through the rest of the night and
01:26 into tomorrow as well. It's very typical for this time of year. It isn't a very
01:29 unusual storm but it will probably bring some impacts there. We're not going to
01:34 see the same stormy weather here in the UK but this storm will bring an
01:38 influence to the UK over the next few days. So to see what that influence will
01:44 be we're going to have a look at the temperatures. So if I zoom out so we can
01:49 see both the storm across the US and the UK here is a little bit zoomed out but
01:56 we need to take a look at the colours. So you can see at the moment across the UK
01:59 we've got a mix of oranges and some blues as well. That's why it has been
02:03 quite cold particularly through the mornings in the north. In the south though
02:07 we're starting to see a bit of a change to the temperatures and as this storm
02:11 comes closer across the Atlantic it will be dredging up this mild air and we're
02:16 going to continue to see that mild air boot out that colder out the way of that
02:21 colder air. So much of the UK will see a pretty mild end to the week and the
02:27 start of next week as well. You can see we've still got frontal systems coming
02:30 across the UK though so there will be quite a lot of rain as well. So that
02:35 means we are in for a milder week here in the UK, end to the week in the UK
02:41 but also quite a lot of rain. So let's take a closer look at the rest of the
02:46 week. So we'll start with Wednesday, that's tomorrow. We're going to continue
02:49 with that southerly, southwesterly wind direction and we'll be feeling very mild
02:53 but also as I said it will be quite wet. We're going to see heavy bursts of rain
02:57 pushing in from the south and west. There will be some quite heavy bursts
03:01 particularly Wednesday evening and through much of Thursday when we have
03:05 quite a large frontal system that will sweep across the country bringing some
03:10 heavy and quite persistent rain through the day. There's also going to be loads
03:13 of low cloud as well so it'll be quite a gloomy, gloomy couple of days through
03:18 Thursday and Wednesday. But then on Friday there is a sign of something a
03:24 little bit better. Those of you that are on half term this week, we had a really
03:29 nice start to the half term. Even if you weren't on half term you might have
03:32 noticed how beautifully sunny it was outside on Monday. Now we're not going to
03:37 end the week on quite a sunnier note but it will be at least a drier day than
03:41 Wednesday on Thursday or Friday. That's because we're between two weather
03:45 fronts on Friday. So you can see we've got a lot less rain, still quite a lot of
03:51 cloud. It will still be feeling fairly mild as well across the UK. So but then
03:58 what happens into the weekend? Well we are then expecting this next frontal
04:04 system to push in across, if I press play, the next frontal system to push in
04:10 through the course of Saturday afternoon in from the west. So probably another
04:15 batch of rain more likely in western areas through the day and then overnight
04:19 spreading into the east. But then there are signs of higher pressure developing
04:24 into Sunday as well. More on that in a moment and first of all we're just going
04:29 to have a look at if that rain really means much. Obviously it means it's not
04:33 that great to be getting out and about but as it's mild it's not too bad.
04:37 However if we do see quite a lot of rain building up in the same places that can
04:42 lead to some flooding issues. So let's have a look at what sort of rainfall
04:46 totals we can expect. So I said it's Wednesday and Thursday when we'll see
04:49 the heaviest rain I think. So between, throughout the course of Thursday this
04:54 is where we see these other rainfall accumulations we're expecting. You can
04:59 see the UK in here, the brighter the colour essentially the heavier rain over
05:04 that 24 hour period. So you can see that across parts of Devon and Cornwall, South
05:10 Wales as well as North Wales, some northwestern areas of England as well
05:14 it's probably going to see the heaviest rain. That's showing about 30
05:19 millimetres falling over 24 hours for these areas. That might not be, these
05:23 might not be the exact areas that we do see it but it's that sort of pattern.
05:26 Now that in itself is not really enough to cause a huge amount of impacts but
05:31 some areas of England and Wales have already seen quite a lot of rain so far
05:35 this month. So river levels are a little bit sensitive in some areas. So we will
05:40 be keeping a close eye on that but let's have a look at where we have seen the
05:44 heaviest rain so far this month. This map shows how much rain has fallen over
05:50 February so far. So we're on the 13th at the moment, a little under halfway
05:56 through the month. So we would expect to have seen about 40 to 42 percent of the
06:03 average rainfall for each area but by the time, by this point in the month. So
06:07 that means that most areas look a little bit drier than average. So this is the
06:12 the rainfall we've seen so far compared to the average if you haven't seen these
06:15 charts before. So anywhere that's white has had over 75 percent of its average
06:21 rainfall, average February rainfall already this month. Anywhere that's blue
06:26 over a hundred percent of its average rainfall as well. So you can see it's
06:30 generally quite a lot of central areas of England and southern areas of England
06:34 as well as parts of South Wales. Also northern Scotland, northeastern Scotland
06:37 have as well. And it's these areas of central England where the river levels
06:41 are quite sensitive. So if you're in these areas through the rest of the week
06:44 you could see start to see some flooding issues. We work really closely here with
06:48 the Environment Agency and something called our Flood Forecasting Centre. We
06:52 talk to them every day about where expecting the heaviest rainfall. They
06:55 tell us which areas are sensitive to various rainfall and that's how flood
06:59 warnings and rain warnings get issued as well. So make sure you keep up to
07:03 date with all of those details through the rest of the week if you are in those
07:07 areas. But as I said there is a bit of a, there's a sign of a change as we head
07:14 into the weekend with higher pressure starting to build in. So it does look
07:19 like we'll start to see, we'll start to see the high pressure build in through
07:24 Sunday. So I think Sunday will probably be a better day than Saturday because
07:29 we're going to see that rainfall pushing in. But let's have a look at how we're
07:33 expecting the pressure to change over the course of the week. When we get
07:37 further ahead we have to look at forecasts in a more probabilistic way. So
07:42 we look at percentage chances of things happening and this chart shows us the
07:46 percentage chance of higher or lower pressure across the UK. If we see blues
07:52 on the map that shows lower pressure, reds show higher pressure. So over the
07:57 rest of the week, Tuesday to Thursday, the first couple of columns here we've got
08:01 blues, quite a high percentage of them happening as well. That's lower pressure,
08:05 that's going to be bringing all that rain for the rest of the week. But then
08:08 from Friday and into at least the start of next week we've got some reds on the
08:13 map so that's higher pressure developing across the UK. So that will bring some
08:18 drier weather. Depending on where that higher pressure sits, depends where the
08:22 drier weather will be. So let's have a look at where that high pressure is
08:27 likely, most likely to sit. So it's this one here which shows us from about
08:34 Sunday to Monday, we are expecting to see the high build in from the
08:40 south and west and then it will probably sit quite centrally across the UK but
08:47 probably be slightly more dominant in the south. So that's what you can see
08:51 here, we've got very little rainfall in the south and that wet weather off the
08:55 Atlantic pushing in to more northern areas. So I think at least through the
08:59 start, the end of the weekend and into the start of next week until about
09:03 Monday, Tuesday, possibly Wednesday, we'll probably see this kind of pressure
09:07 pattern. With this pressure pattern the winds go clockwise around a high
09:12 pressure system so that means you have a southwesterly or a southerly wind
09:16 direction which is a quite a warm direction for us so temperatures will be
09:21 staying above average. So we've got a mild few days to come and it's going to
09:25 be staying mild well into next week as well. However we'll probably see wetter
09:31 weather coming into the north. There could be some snow over the high ground
09:35 but generally with this, with the warmer Atlantic air, you'll see less in
09:40 the way of snowfall but over the highest ground of Scotland there could be some
09:43 snow but by and large we're not going to see any wintry hazards into the
09:48 start of next week. And then we'll see how the pressure pattern is going to
09:53 change into the second part of next week. Now you can look at how the
09:58 pressure changes in a slightly different way to that first chart I just showed
10:02 you. So this one shows you the different pressure pattern. This is the next two
10:07 weeks again starting today on Tuesday the 13th going to Tuesday the 27th on
10:12 the bottom right there. So again it's the blues showing the lower pressure and the
10:16 red showing the higher pressure but here it at least tells us a little bit more
10:21 about what type of high and low pressure we will see. So starting off with the
10:26 higher pressure we're looking at, we're going to be seeing through the rest of
10:30 the week and into the start of next, start of the weekend or through the
10:33 weekend start of next week sorry. We've got obviously the orange and red colours
10:39 but the most dominant initial red colour is this one here which is this one here
10:47 the dominant colour throughout is this orange colour which is typically
10:50 centred across the UK. So that's that high pressure more centred on top of the UK
10:56 bringing us that more of a westerly wind direction which is what we are
10:59 expecting. And then that high pressure we start to see more yellows come in from
11:05 about Tuesday into Wednesday we start to see a few more yellows come in and that
11:09 shows the Azores high moving in that's what that yellow means and the Azores
11:13 high is that high that sits closer to parts of Western Europe, North Western
11:19 Europe across France and Spain. So that's the chance of the high pressure
11:24 pushing down to the south. So what would that would be sort of Tuesday and into
11:29 Wednesday so that means for our weather this isn't the exact pressure pattern we
11:35 would we will 100% see but this is the currently the most likely pressure
11:39 pattern from about Wednesday next week so that's that this high pressure
11:42 retreating back to the south. What that does is allows a more straight westerly
11:48 across the UK quite typical or very typical wind direction for us here in
11:53 the UK. The Atlantic obviously packed full of moisture bringing a lot of wet
11:57 weather in from the west so wet weather moving across Western areas high
12:01 pressure still centered to more closer to southern areas so probably drier
12:06 across the south but you won't be completely away from the chance of
12:11 that wet weather but it'll probably be the far northwest that will see the
12:15 highest rainfall through the middle part to the end part of next week. That's not
12:21 the only change we could see next week there could be another slight shift in
12:26 the weather pattern so we'll go back to that chart we looked at just now just a
12:30 minute ago and that showed how the pressure will change and you can't help
12:34 but notice we see the return of those blues after the high pressure so
12:38 unfortunately for those that do like the dry weather it's not looking like a
12:41 particularly long-lived dry spell or settled spell across the UK as we do see
12:48 the return of lower pressure dominating our weather. So the most
12:56 likely setup with that lower pressure returning from about Wednesday or
13:00 Thursday next week that's the 21st 22nd of February so heading into the final
13:05 week of February is for this dark blue low pressure to dominate and that is
13:12 more of a zonal low pressure system which shows we would have those westerly
13:17 winds coming in so that kind of balances out that Azores high and that zonal low
13:22 pressure bringing in low pressures coming in from the west so that would be
13:25 still quite a warm direction so all the while we're staying very mild
13:30 temperatures above average if not all close to average for the time of year so
13:35 frosts are going to be very limited for at least the next week possibly the next
13:40 two weeks possibly more closer to the next two weeks however we do start to
13:46 see the influx of a different type of low pressure you can see these become
13:50 more likely it's quite a nice trend you can see here of this slightly lighter
13:55 blue becoming a bit more dominant than that blue is I'll tell you what it is
14:00 it's more of a northwesterly wind pattern I've got an example of what a
14:05 northwesterly looks like across the UK here so here we have it so high pressure
14:12 across the high pressure that will have started the week a bit more centrally
14:16 across the UK think southwards allowing that westerly and then sinks even further
14:21 south and west to allow a northwesterly wind direction to the UK and it's only
14:26 at this point that you start to see some blue numbers coming on that shows
14:30 temperatures falling below average for these north and western areas because
14:35 we're starting to get that colder influence with more of a northerly
14:38 direction in the wind obviously it's colder to the north in this setup that's
14:44 when we could potentially start to see and a greater chance of snow across the
14:49 UK so in a northwesterly wind direction you you can see snow showers probably
14:56 some frontal systems as well coming in from the north and west so it's probably
15:00 the highlands the higher ground in Scotland northwest Scotland likely to
15:04 see the heaviest snowfall during this but also parts of North Wales Northern
15:09 Ireland Northwest England as well could see some snow in these situations you
15:13 can also sometimes get some snow showers feeding in two parts of Devon and
15:18 Cornwall but it would have to be quite cold air for that to happen so it
15:22 doesn't seem likely then at least that we will see any any any persistent or
15:28 widespread cold weather until at least the end of next week because until then
15:34 temperatures are expected to stay above average so if you have heard reports of
15:39 Arctic blasts on the way for the UK I can tell you that we are expecting
15:43 temperatures to be very mild for the time of year through the rest of this
15:47 week on the weekend and into the start and middle part of next week as well so
15:52 for the next 10 days or so it's looking like it's going to be mild a bit wet
15:57 through the rest of this week but then the drier for a time over the weekend
16:01 and part of the weekend and into the start of next week however that is not
16:06 the last chance of any cold weather here in the UK as there is something the
16:13 chance of something called a sudden stratospheric warming now sudden
16:18 stratospheric warming increases the chance of some colder weather here in
16:23 the UK it doesn't mean we will see cold weather what it does mean is that we're
16:28 more likely to see blocked patterns happen to our weather I'll talk about
16:32 that in a bit more detail in a moment but with a and if a block pattern sits
16:36 in the right place that can bring an increased chance of northerly or
16:40 easterly winds here to the UK which is a cold direction at this time of year
16:44 that's coming off either the cold continent or up from the Arctic as well
16:49 so that is what would bring a greater chance of some snow to places that are
16:54 less likely to see it at this time of year so that'll be more southerly or
16:58 easterly areas of the UK so the sudden stratospheric warming refers to the
17:03 temperature in the stratosphere the stratosphere is above the troposphere
17:08 which is where all of our weather happens that's what's closest to the
17:12 earth's surface the stratosphere is about 30 miles up or 50 kilometers and
17:18 over the winter we get something called the polar vortex develop over the poles
17:23 and that is a circulation of winds around the poles that traps in a lot of
17:29 that colder air in the stratosphere it happens every winter and is very a very
17:35 well known phenomenon however there are times when those winds in the
17:39 stratosphere can weaken or even reverse and that means that the cold air in the
17:45 stratosphere can disperse and it can start to have seep out and start to have
17:50 some impacts on our weather now that cold air doesn't then come and directly
17:53 affect the UK what it does is change the pattern of our jet stream so with a
17:59 strong polar vortex we will have a strong jet stream and that is quite a
18:05 typical setup for winter strong jet stream brings us that milder and wetter
18:10 weather through the winter but when the polar vortex weakens it can create a
18:15 more meandering or a meandering jet stream or a weaker jet stream which
18:19 allows a greater chance of blocked patterns or more northerly wind
18:24 direction across the UK any wind direction that's not a westerly
18:27 generally so more of that easterly side which is that colder direction at this
18:31 time of year so to find out if we're going to be seeing a sudden stratospheric
18:37 warming we have to look and take a look at the strength of the winds in the
18:40 stratosphere which as I said we if they weaken that's when we could start to see
18:45 that polar vortex weaken so let's have a look at this chart here so this shows
18:52 the wind strength in the stratosphere and you can see it's this blue color you
18:56 want to see you don't need to look too closely at the details it's just this
18:59 little blip that I want you to take a look at so you can see that through the
19:03 next week or little less than a week it looks likely that we'll see the winds
19:08 weaken and then perhaps reverse you can see they go below zero so that is the
19:13 reversal of the polar vortex just for a time but that could be enough for the
19:19 polar vortex to to reverse and weaken and for a sudden stratospheric warming
19:25 event to occur so that the weakening of the polar vortex then increases the
19:29 temperature in the stratosphere which is why it's called a sudden stratospheric
19:33 warming event slightly misleading because it can lead to colder weather
19:37 but the stratosphere is not in contact with the earth's surface so that we do
19:42 have quite the effects are not exactly the same and also the effects don't
19:48 happen immediately it wouldn't be for another couple of weeks that we would
19:52 then see that cold weather so it does mean that into the beginning of March
19:56 and into the second part of March that we're more likely to see a spell of some
20:01 colder weather here in the UK and I'll tell you why that is in a little moment
20:07 so sudden stratospheric warming events increase the likelihood of blocked
20:13 patterns across northern areas northwestern areas of Europe and
20:18 depending on where that block sits could lead to some colder weather here in the
20:23 UK so I'm going to have a go at drawing what sort of setup that could mean so
20:29 when I say a blocked pattern I mean an area of high pressure a large area of
20:34 high pressure blocking the pattern staying in a similar place for quite a
20:37 long time so you can see a similar weather pattern so the area of high
20:43 pressure I'm going to draw a couple of scenarios and the area of high pressure
20:47 to bring colder weather to the UK would would probably have to sit closer to
20:54 Scandinavia so this is our area of high pressure here just put an H in there so
21:01 you know that's the high pressure and around an area of high pressure the
21:06 winds go clockwise just gonna make that red actually that's better a bit tappy
21:19 this the the winds go clockwise so if that high pressure sat in this sort of
21:24 area or a little further north it would bring an easterly wind direction to many
21:30 eastern areas of the UK and northern areas of the UK we could also
21:35 see some quite dry weather that would mean cold nights potentially foggy
21:38 frosty nights through the early part of March and but also a greater chance of
21:43 seeing some snowfall coming in from the east but that blocking pattern has still
21:48 got to happen and it's got to form in this place because if that high pressure
21:52 that blocking pattern set up in a slightly different way we could it we
21:57 might not see a pattern like this so another example of where that high
22:01 pressure could sit is perhaps if it's sat
22:09 to the north and west of the UK did we had our high pressure actually I'm just
22:21 gonna put it a little bit further here yes so to the north and west of the UK
22:32 bear with me while I get this set up so around high pressure as I said winds go
22:38 clockwise so that brings that more northwesterly wind direction which is
22:44 what I showed earlier which is what we look is looking like it's more likely to
22:47 we're likely to see this weather pattern from the end of next week into next
22:52 weekend so that could bring it is a colder direction that does increase the
22:56 chance of colder weather generally but nothing significantly below average and
23:00 snowfall would still probably be limited to higher ground in northern areas and
23:04 in this setup as well we would still have some unsettled weather as I said
23:08 that means our jet stream is weaker if we have a weakened polar vortex so the
23:14 jet stream would be more meandering so the jet stream might come round to the
23:19 south it sort of has to meander around any high pressures so it might still
23:23 mean that you'd still get wet weather coming into the south as well and even
23:27 when that high pressure was it's anywhere to the north and like that
23:30 anywhere across the north either to the northeast or the northwest you still get
23:34 this sort of meandering jet stream that might come up and bring wetter weather
23:38 to the south so from mid-march this from early March at the end of February there
23:43 is a chance that a sudden stratospheric warming event could affect our weather
23:47 it is looking fairly likely that we will see the event occur but what that means
23:52 there's still a few steps to come got to get that blocking set up and it has to
23:56 set up in a certain way to bring that colder weather to us here in the UK but
24:00 there's a chance of some colder weather across the across the UK into the early
24:07 part of March but also the chance of some quite wet weather persisting across
24:11 the south as well so still a lot of detail to be ironed out for the end of
24:16 the month and into early March but before then we've still got a lot of
24:21 mild weather to come so for the time being there is no cold weather on the
24:25 way for the next 10 days or so but we will be keeping a very close eye on it
24:30 here at the Met Office we've got forecasters here 24 hours a day and we
24:34 will be keeping you up to date of course in our deep dives in our 10-day trends
24:39 and all of our latest output you can find on YouTube and across all of our
24:42 social media channels as I said earlier I'll be here for the next 30 minutes to
24:46 answer some of your comments if you are watching during the premiere if not I'll
24:50 catch you next time and thank you very much for joining me bye bye
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