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  • 2 years ago
Marc Chaikin, Founder of Chaikin Analytics

After 40 years on Wall Street as a trader, stock broker analyst and options trader, Marc founded Chaikin Analytics LLC to deliver proven stochastic analytics to investors and traders, based on the Chaikin Power Gauge, a 20-factor alpha model proven effective at identifying a stock’s potential. Chaikin pioneered the 1st real-time analytics workstation for portfolio managers and stock traders, now part of Thomson Reuters’ institutional workstation, and developed computerized stock selection models and technical indicators, including Chaikin Money Flow, which are industry standards.

Catch the full interview on the #1 Morning Stock Show To Get You Ready For The Stock Market Open, PreMarket Gainers, Earnings This Week, Economic Data & More! Benzinga PreMarket Prep 8:00AM ET- 9:00AM ET BenzingaTV on YouTube.

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Transcript
00:00 Mark Chaykin, Chaykin Analytics joins us every two weeks for his fundamental and technical
00:06 outlooks on the market.
00:08 Mark, you look very serious today.
00:11 How are you doing?
00:12 I'm doing well.
00:15 Not serious at all.
00:16 Just trying to project a little bit of gravitas.
00:20 That Wall Street swagger you got there.
00:26 So status of the rally, Mark, what do you think?
00:29 Too much too fast?
00:30 No.
00:31 A little pause in the action?
00:32 No.
00:33 We had another great breath thrust as of last Friday, the Zweig breath thrust this time.
00:40 Six to 12 months out, always good.
00:42 A little chop in the short term and with the budget mess upon us again in Congress, that's
00:49 not surprising.
00:50 But I like the market here.
00:52 I think we're going to rally into year end again with some chop around this budget debate.
00:59 But 4,400 is critical.
01:02 We haven't gotten through it yet.
01:03 We've got to get through that, close there, and then I'm very comfortable with 4,600 by
01:09 year end.
01:10 Do you wait for it to go through just to be sure or do you buy today just anticipating
01:15 that's going through?
01:16 Well, it depends what stocks you're trading.
01:18 If you're buying Adobe and CrowdStrike, which we love, you don't reach for them here.
01:24 But if you find stocks that have pulled back a bit, you buy them.
01:30 If you're talking about the indices, yeah, I'd wait for them to close above 4,400 if
01:34 you're buying SPYs or Qs actually are doing really well.
01:38 But the big surprise for me is that the financials have turned bullish in the power gauge.
01:44 Wow.
01:45 Whoa.
01:46 Yeah, led by the insurance stocks, which have been strong.
01:51 But also Bank of America, bullish rating about four days ago, Bank of New York Mellon, and
01:58 then some of the regionals, Truist, TFC, which I thought was always a quality bank, and Fifth
02:06 Third have all turned bullish in the last week or two.
02:10 Both of those, Bill Gross, I believe.
02:12 Bill Gross was tweeting.
02:13 Yes.
02:14 I don't know how often he tweets, but he tweeted out four stocks that he was buying.
02:17 Let me go see the four banks so I can quickly find it.
02:21 Oh, really?
02:22 Yeah.
02:23 I knew he had...
02:24 So seven days ago, he puts out this tweet and he says he's buying Truist, Citizens Financial.
02:29 What's the symbol on that?
02:32 Symbol?
02:33 TFC.
02:34 TFC.
02:35 So Truist.
02:36 He's buying CFG, which is Citizens Financial, E Corp, KEY, and First Horizon FHN.
02:42 And all those stocks ripped that day.
02:44 They all ripped 5%.
02:45 They've come back in.
02:46 Some of them have come back in a little bit here.
02:49 But for the most part, that was the blast off, was those four.
02:54 And that gave a vote of confidence to the regional banks as a whole, I think, Mark.
02:58 When you get a voice as big as Bill Gross, well-known out there, I think it's not just
03:03 those four regionals.
03:04 It's like green light to maybe go buy regionals.
03:06 Maybe that's why, maybe that's something that helped the power gauge turn bullish on these
03:10 things.
03:11 Maybe Bill Gross.
03:12 It could be, because it certainly turned a lot of heads.
03:15 I'll ask you this, though.
03:17 What does Bill Gross know about regional banks?
03:20 The bond guy.
03:21 I don't know, but he's got a name.
03:23 He's got a name.
03:24 He's got a name.
03:26 The KRE has also turned bullish in terms of the ETF power gauge rating going bullish.
03:32 And this is all, let's see, that turned bullish on Friday, October 30th.
03:37 So we're a couple of-
03:38 Yeah, one of the few things, very few things that I added this year was back during that
03:44 banking crisis.
03:45 The only one I got tagged on a little bit, what was that one that went bankrupt?
03:48 I sold a lot before it went bankrupt.
03:51 But-
03:52 Did you buy the SIVB?
03:53 Which one did you buy?
03:54 What was the one that started?
03:55 Silicon Valley.
03:56 Republic.
03:57 It could have been.
03:58 It was first Republic.
03:59 Yeah.
04:00 Yeah, that was the only one.
04:01 I mean, I don't know.
04:02 It had a big pop, but the biggest one I took was JP Morgan.
04:13 I didn't have any exposure really to the banking sector.
04:17 I did have some key bank.
04:20 So that was the only one.
04:21 And then it got hit on, whatchamacallit, Jamie Dimon.
04:25 We can put the Jamie Dimon low there because when it hit that 135, that's when it revealed
04:30 that he was selling $140 million in stock.
04:33 So if you were a contrarian on that one, you got a nice trade going.
04:37 But what else do you like, Mark?
04:40 Still like technology.
04:42 Software is top of mind for me.
04:45 I think some of the rally is based on the fact that the third quarter earnings showed
04:52 an uptick in productivity, and that's typically software related.
04:56 So I'm looking for pullbacks in any of the quality software names and the semiconductor
05:02 names that we like.
05:04 But Adobe is my favorite, but you can't buy it here.
05:07 Although I think there's still 20% of upside into a bull market peak in the stock above
05:12 700.
05:13 CrowdStrike, you got to be very selective in cyber.
05:17 Fortinet and Palo Alto seem to be hurting, but CrowdStrike just keeps making new highs.
05:23 Microsoft.
05:24 I mean, it's the big names.
05:26 I'm not for small names.
05:29 These are the cash cows.
05:30 Well, I'm not so much CrowdStrike, but Microsoft, Adobe, the usual suspects, Amazon.
05:39 These are the safety trades now.
05:40 Well, and I don't know if you were listening, but we've been breaking it down for the last
05:44 few weeks on debt and just talking about why the Magnificent Seven has outperformed.
05:49 And the majority of these companies have very little debt relative to market cap.
05:52 The other thing is a lot of their products don't require the customers to go out and
05:56 get financing to buy them.
05:57 So we're talking about Apple.
05:59 There's still 0% financing on iPhone.
06:01 What has 0% financing?
06:02 Nothing.
06:03 0% I bought one, 0% financing, 24 months.
06:06 I'm like, sure.
06:07 Why not?
06:08 And a lot of these companies are sitting on a lot of cash.
06:13 A lot of cash.
06:14 They're positioned much better than a lot of these smaller companies that rates are
06:18 going up and these companies are like, okay, well, this is going to really hammer our bottom
06:22 line.
06:23 There's interest payments that we're going to have to make.
06:24 That's not the case with the Magnificent Seven.
06:27 If the US government had a balance sheet like the Magnificent Seven, we'd be at 10,000 on
06:33 the S&P.
06:34 I don't think that'll ever happen.
06:36 But Joe, two weeks ago, it was Dennis, I think you said, what would turn you bullish on bonds?
06:44 And I thought for a minute and I said, I guess if they hit 5%, then I could see them.
06:51 And that's what's happened and that's what this rally is all about, I think.
06:55 Plus some parsing of the Fed statement, which is debatable.
06:59 Yeah, I agree.
07:01 I agree on that.
07:02 I think he's been pretty consistent the whole way, but the way that they just like to run
07:10 with whatever statements he makes.
07:11 Oh yeah, that was dovish, that was hawkish.
07:13 I think he's been pretty steady the whole way here.
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