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00:04 The position for NFL betters through the years is Dallas is generally speaking,
00:09 not a good betting proposition.
00:11 They just don't get any value ever on the Cowboys.
00:14 I think that's the case this week too.
00:16 The Eagles are three point favorites against Dallas.
00:18 Clearly, the big win, convincing win that they had last week.
00:23 Generally speaking, Warren, with the way the Cowboys usually play,
00:26 you would have expected maybe Philadelphia to be three and a half, four,
00:29 four and a half in this game.
00:31 But again, it's Dallas, people are gonna bet them.
00:33 They think that they can win going into Philadelphia this week.
00:36 And on paper, they're always great.
00:38 It's just the result doesn't always look great.
00:40 What will the result be in this divisional matchup this week?
00:43 >> It's tough to predict the exact result in my opinion,
00:48 because I don't yet know how much Jalen Hurts,
00:52 his injury is gonna carry on to this game.
00:54 I don't think it's going to be a massive factor.
00:56 But there's a chance that he could get re-injured, and
01:00 he does not look 100% right now.
01:02 But the secondary reason why I am really reluctant to pick an outright winner in
01:07 this game in terms of ATS is because I don't know the strategy that
01:11 the Dallas Cowboys are going to take offensively here.
01:14 They switched some things up during the bye week that they had two weeks ago.
01:18 They came out last week out of the bye, and
01:20 they massively increased their pass rate on early downs and specifically first down.
01:24 And that is exactly what you're gonna have to do against this Philadelphia Eagles
01:28 defense because as I share some of these numbers,
01:30 Philadelphia's defense is the best in the NFL against the run on first downs.
01:36 They're running back run defense, they're allowing 1.7 yards per carry,
01:40 which is best in the NFL obviously, minus 0.54 EPA per rush, and
01:44 16% success rate per running attempt.
01:47 Terrible numbers for opposing offenses trying to run the football.
01:51 But if you pass the ball against this Philadelphia Eagles defense on first down,
01:55 plus 0.10 EPA per attempt, 7.2 yards per attempt, 51% success, 76% completions.
02:02 They move to a fringe bottom five defense if you pass on them.
02:05 Look no further than what the commanders have done in their two games against
02:09 the Philadelphia Eagles, specifically last week's game, where they came out and
02:12 they did nothing but throw the ball.
02:14 94% of their first downs in the first half of the game, they passed the ball.
02:18 81% of their first downs in the game, they passed the ball.
02:21 These past attempts were massively impactful.
02:24 They moved the football.
02:24 Sam Howell had over 200 yards passing just on first down last week, and
02:29 that's what allowed Washington to score as many points.
02:32 If you wanna try to produce against the Seagulls defense,
02:36 do not get into third down and look to pass the football.
02:38 Do not expect to run the ball on first down.
02:40 You gotta come out and throw the ball.
02:42 Hopefully, the Dallas Cowboys got that memo from watching the game last week, and
02:46 from what they did coming out of the bye, pass early and often.
02:49 They should be able to put up some points.
02:50 Make Jalen Hurts pass the ball to beat you in the second half like he was able to do
02:54 against Washington, but this pass rush of the Dallas Cowboys will have more
02:58 opportunities to get after him if Jalen Hurts is trailing there in that second half.
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