Hurricane outlook moving into late summer

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski breaks down the hurricane outlook for 2023 as we move toward late summer and early fall.

Transcript

00:00 I want to talk about where we are,

00:02 where we're going,

00:02 and then we'll wrap it up into the fall season.

00:05 I want to bring in our Accuweather

00:07 hurricane expert Dan Katlowski this

00:08 morning here on Accuweather early.

00:10 And before we get to what's going to happen,

00:13 Dan impressions to what has

00:14 already happened this season.

00:15 Well, it looks like we've had again.

00:17 We've had five storms,

00:18 including the update,

00:19 updated storm in January,

00:21 but basically we've had four in

00:22 the actual tropical season,

00:24 which is a little bit above normal.

00:26 Normally we would know that

00:27 we're going to have a tropical

00:29 storm this year, but normally we

00:31 would not see Storm 3 until early

00:33 August and now we've already had

00:35 four in the early part of the season.

00:37 5, including one in January,

00:39 but basically the numbers are higher

00:41 than normal as far as that's concerned.

00:43 Also,

00:43 one of the other variables we look at is

00:46 the ace as accumulated cyclone energy.

00:49 That's also up this year as well,

00:51 but the heart of the season is

00:53 what we look at very closely.

00:56 That's basically from the latter

00:57 part of August through September.

00:59 That's where we get a lot more activity,

01:02 but in the early season the numbers.

01:04 The numbers are are mathematically up,

01:06 but as far as as Paul mentioned

01:09 in his segment there,

01:10 we have not seen any big damages yet.

01:13 You know really quickly if we can take

01:15 this graphic full for one second here,

01:18 you can see the names of the storms.

01:20 You know it's been relatively

01:22 quiet for now, Dan.

01:23 Really quickly,

01:24 what we've seen so far the last

01:26 couple of weeks is what we normally see.

01:28 That is a lot of dry air.

01:30 You can see that with the yellow and

01:33 orange shading and a lot of wind shear.

01:35 Exactly,

01:35 so dry stable air that usually

01:37 cuts down on the storms.

01:39 If there's sheer like there has been

01:41 this year that adds to the problems.

01:43 That's why we haven't really

01:44 seen any big development again.

01:45 Waters are very warm,

01:47 so when there's opportunity there,

01:48 less sheer and less dry air.

01:50 Yeah,

01:50 you're going to get quick development.

01:52 Yeah, let's really quickly look at

01:54 those water temperatures you were

01:55 mentioning that so even though we

01:57 have a lot of warm water,

01:58 these are the anomalies because

01:59 of the wind shear in the dry air.

02:01 We haven't had much,

02:02 but then typically and you and I

02:04 were just talking about this as

02:06 you get in the mid to late August.

02:07 It's not like the dry air and wind shear go

02:10 away but they start to lessen a little bit.

02:12 And that's when we get the heart of the season.

02:14 What do you think the heart of this

02:16 season is going to be like this year?

02:18 Well, I think the heart of the

02:19 season will be like a normal season.

02:21 I think we're going to see,

02:23 you know,

02:23 around three,

02:24 maybe four storms in August.

02:25 And if anywhere from five to maybe

02:27 six in September and then we'll

02:29 see a slackening off in October.

02:30 Keep in mind that El Nino is going

02:33 to get stronger and stronger as we

02:35 go through the month of September

02:37 into October and usually when it happens,

02:39 the shear really becomes more dominant.

02:41 Yeah,

02:41 and let's talk about that then

02:43 because doing an El Nino and this

02:45 was what you guys were facing when

02:47 you were our long range forecast team.

02:49 When you were making this forecast

02:51 months in advance doing El Nino,

02:53 you typically get less activity

02:55 doing in the Atlantic Basin and you

02:57 kind of think that that may ramp up a

03:00 little bit this year as we get toward

03:03 the fall. Well, we've had more storms

03:05 this year simply because there's

03:07 a lag between La Nina and El Nino,

03:09 so we think that lag has been a

03:12 lot more impressive this year.

03:14 So therefore we are the four storms

03:16 that we had during June and July.

03:18 Early July they were basically

03:20 because we still had that lingering

03:22 El Nino La Nina pattern,

03:23 but now as we go now El Nino more

03:26 shear less chance for opportunity

03:27 as we normally see,

03:29 but the water temperatures are warm and

03:31 again we're going into that sweet spot

03:33 of the season that really quickly

03:34 in about 1015 seconds.

03:36 If you don't have already a hurricane

03:38 plan along the coast, you need to get

03:40 one exactly. Please get your hurricane

03:42 plan in place because we could get

03:44 very active here late, especially

03:46 late August into September.

03:48 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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