China possible invasion of Thiwan by Abdullah Afridi - Dailymotion

Abdullah Afridi

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00:00What would happen if China invaded Taiwan?

00:04What you're seeing are training drills performed by the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries.

00:12Both sides are preparing for a conflict, which if it took place, would likely include the

00:16U.S. in some capacity.

00:19Analysts say there are two causes for concern.

00:22One is China's long-standing position that Taiwan is a part of China, and that it would

00:26seek reunification by force if necessary.

00:29The other is its military buildup.

00:39The gravity of a potential war has now become a commonplace discussion in the U.S. national

00:44security community and raised questions about how a conflict would unfold.

00:49To answer those questions, experts look to war games.

00:52Shall we play a game?

00:54How can I ask you that?

00:55It's all about global thermonuclear war.

01:00Unlike in the movies, in real life, war games resemble complex board games.

01:07In 2022, the think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, developed a war

01:13game for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

01:16Most of the war games that have been done about a conflict between the U.S. and China have

01:20been classified.

01:21Rumors indicate very adverse outcomes, but the assumptions and mechanics are not well known because

01:29they're classified.

01:30We wanted to do something that was entirely unclassified so we could talk to a very broad

01:36audience.

01:37Separated from China's southeastern coast by 100 miles of sea, Taiwan is a self-ruled island

01:43that China claims as its own.

01:46The Central Intelligence Agency estimates that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has set 2027 as

01:52the deadline for his military to be ready to take the island.

01:56CSIS based its war games on a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan taking place in 2026.

02:02CSIS's war game is a turn-based strategy simulation.

02:07After each turn is played, players turn to combat result tables and computer programs to

02:11calculate combat outcomes.

02:13Today, CSIS research assistant Chris Park will be helping facilitate gameplay.

02:19Players are divided into two sides.

02:21The red team represents China, the blue team represents the U.S. and its allies.

02:25Of the 24 scenarios played, the version you are about to see is the most likely.

02:30As the game begins, the Chinese are moving their ships around Taiwan and their aircraft over

02:39Taiwan.

02:40The United States is responding with its own aircraft, with its bombers, to attack the Chinese

02:46naval forces and also with its surface ships that have been sent forward as part of the

02:54U.S. effort to deter the conflict.

02:56The United States also has submarines in the streets.

03:00CSIS's war game is played with three maps.

03:04Two operational maps represent the regional operations of the U.S. and its allies and the

03:09Chinese forces respectively.

03:11Another ground map is used for the operations on the island.

03:14The Chinese have now invaded the island.

03:16They've landed forces in the south.

03:18Strategically, it would be better to land in the north.

03:22That's where the capital is.

03:23That's where much of the industry is.

03:24The problem is that most of the Taiwanese military capability is also in the north.

03:30That makes it very difficult to invade there.

03:33Several of our teams tried to do that in some of the iterations.

03:37It was just too difficult.

03:38There were too many defending forces.

03:40So most of the Chinese teams decided to land in the south.

03:44The challenge there is to occupy the country and to take the capital.

03:49They have to fight their way up the entire island.

03:52The campaign looks much like the Allied campaign in Italy during the Second World War.

03:58Bit by bit, very difficult terrain.

04:00Here we see that the Chinese have landed.

04:03First, we have troops landing on the beach.

04:07There are only a handful of good beaches on Taiwan for landing troops.

04:12These are indicated on the map.

04:15And then around the airfield, we have Chinese parachute and air mobile troops, that is troops

04:20coming in by helicopter.

04:23And the purpose of doing that is if they can capture the airfield intact, then they can fly

04:29in.

04:30Troops and supplies are not dependent on ships and craft bringing troops and supplies across

04:36the beach.

04:37After both sides play their turns, the game is paused for an adjudication in which the losses

04:42for each side are calculated.

04:44What we see is that the Chinese amphibious units have successfully gone ashore.

04:51They've moved 10 kilometers inland and they eliminated one Taiwanese battalion out of the defenders.

05:00The air mobile and parachute troops were less successful.

05:03That's a much more difficult operation.

05:06They landed around the airfield, eliminated one defending Taiwanese battalion.

05:12But they lost three of their own battalions.

05:14This is a very risky operation and they have not captured the airfield yet.

05:19Once the losses for the last turn are calculated, the second turn is played with dramatic results.

05:24There's not much change on the U.S. side, tremendous change on the Chinese side.

05:28Let's take a look.

05:29The U.S. is continuing to focus on attacking the Chinese ships around Taiwan, trying to get

05:36through the picket screen there to get at the amphibious ships.

05:40The submarines are still in the straits.

05:44The one that was in the straits last turn has moved back to base in Japan, Yokosuka, to reload.

05:51The squadron that was outside the straits has moved in and a new squadron has moved forward.

05:57Looking at the Chinese side, here we have a lot of change.

06:00And the big thing is that the Chinese have decided to strike Japan.

06:04And they've decided to strike in a major way.

06:07Rather than just strike one base, they've decided to strike all of the Japanese bases

06:11with Japanese aircraft and U.S. aircraft.

06:14What you're seeing here is the flow of Taiwanese forces from the north where they were initially

06:19stationed protecting the capital.

06:22Now they're coming down both coasts to engage the Chinese landing troops in the south.

06:29There are more amphibious units that have come across the beach here.

06:34They are attacking the Taiwanese defenders.

06:37There are a few more air mobile parachute units that have landed around the airfield.

06:43They've surrounded the Taiwanese, which are holding out on the airfield.

06:47But both of these Chinese forces are attacking the Taiwanese.

06:52After the second turn is played, the second adjudication round takes stock of the losses

06:57on both sides.

06:58This has been a massive turn.

07:00Both sides have taken very heavy casualties.

07:03The results are that the Chinese lose one battalion over here and the Taiwanese also lose one

07:11defending battalion.

07:14Around the airfield, the Taiwanese lose one defending battalion and the Chinese lose one

07:19attacking battalion.

07:21We now fast forward about three weeks to the last turn of the game.

07:25The Chinese have moved up the east coast, but they've bumped into Taiwanese units that are

07:32coming down the east coast.

07:34That movement has been slowed by the Chinese aircraft, which have been attacking the transportation

07:39system, but eventually those troops get there and they've formed a pretty solid line on the

07:45east coast.

07:46The Chinese were able to clear the airport where the Taiwanese have been holding out and have

07:53moved forward here in the center.

07:56They've bumped into a Taiwanese defensive line and that has been reinforced by fortifications.

08:07They've moved into the city down here in the south.

08:12The reason for moving into the city is to capture the port.

08:15Finally, we arrive at the last adjudication and the end of the game.

08:20This scenario concludes with the Chinese established ashore, but unable to expand their forces there.

08:27Much of the Chinese amphibious fleet has been destroyed.

08:30The United States and its partners have been attacking those ships relentlessly, so their

08:35ability to bring troops and supplies onto the island has declined.

08:41Over time, those forces will weaken.

08:44The Taiwanese will push them back.

08:46Most of them will end up as prisoners of war.

08:49When we ran this game, we considered it a minor U.S. coalition victory.

08:55It was a minor victory because it was going to take a lot of time and there was going to

09:00be a lot of damage to Taiwan.

09:01But it was a U.S. and coalition victory because the Chinese were unable to establish themselves

09:07on Taiwan and Taiwan endured as an autonomous and democratic entity.

09:14Although the U.S. and its allies came out on top in this scenario, the U.S. was not always

09:18successful.

09:19There were some scenarios where the United States did lose the conflict.

09:23A key requirement is the use of bases in Japan.

09:27The United States has many bases there.

09:30If it cannot use those bases, then it has no way of getting its fighter and attack aircraft

09:37into the fight.

09:37Regardless of the scenario, any iteration of CSIS's war games found that the cost for

09:43all sides would be devastating.

09:44The big takeaway from the project is that the United States and its coalition partners

09:50can sustain an autonomous and democratic Taiwan, but it comes at great cost to the Taiwanese economy.

09:57The U.S. and its partners lose very heavily, but so do the Chinese, enough so that the grip

10:02of the Chinese Communist Party might be endangered.

Military Strategist Shows How China Would Likely Invade Taiwan WSJ

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China possible invasion of Thiwan

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