- 5 hours ago
Shan, RJ, and Bobby took a look at some benchmarks that Brian Schottenheimer needs to hit down the stretch. They discussed defensive 3rd-down efficiency, rushing targets, 2nd-half scoring, Schotty’s future, and more.
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00:00All right, Bob, take on the impossible.
00:03Well, it's Schottenheimer who's going to have to take on the impossible,
00:06which is got to find benchmarks.
00:09So I was thinking about this the other day.
00:10Everybody's like just ripping the hell out of Brian Schottenheimer
00:14and the Cowboys coaching staff.
00:15Rightfully so.
00:16They've earned it.
00:16Yep.
00:17And I started thinking about we've got to have just – it can't just be like –
00:23Do you think that we're being more vicious here than other markets would be?
00:27I know you go around the Odyssey dial sometimes.
00:30Check out DC.
00:31They're dealing with sorry-ass products,
00:33and Dan Quinn about to lose his job all the time.
00:35I wonder if we're like – are we more venomous when people think, you know,
00:39we're a softer media compared to – I mean, we're not more venomous than like
00:42if this was a New York coach.
00:44Yeah, I don't think it's venomous.
00:45Or are they just more used to it?
00:46It's maybe more consistently negative in terms of in the analysis
00:51than it is like venomous.
00:53So I'd say maybe like if you broke down the percentage of the conversation
00:56being negative analysis, it might be higher here than others.
01:00But in terms of like aggressive, it'd be more aggressive.
01:04Because when I went on Arizona radio and I was bitching and complaining,
01:08they're like, dude.
01:09Gambo.
01:10Dude.
01:11We're the Cardinals.
01:14You're complaining about we don't even get sirloin.
01:20Like you're still eating country fried steak there with the Cowboys
01:23and the brand and everything, and you're having this meltdown over it.
01:26So they were like, we're the Cardinals, man.
01:27Yeah, I would say it's probably –
01:29I would say it's less venomous than like Wolchuk trying to get some TikTok views
01:34and less venomous than Pete Souza like passive-aggressively referring to our station.
01:39It would be less than that.
01:41But I was trying to think of –
01:42Tonight's going to be fun.
01:43What are benchmarks that he can hit?
01:46Like objective ones of like, hey, let's set this now.
01:49Second half is coming up.
01:50Let's set this as like this needs to be better, and it needs to look like this.
01:54Like it needs to be this number.
01:55No technicalities.
01:56No, well, they were missing this and that.
01:58Well, no.
01:59This just needs to be these numbers.
02:00So I was looking at a few of them, and I'm curious if these are fair standards
02:03the rest of the way.
02:05Number one, and these can incorporate Christian Parker too
02:08because they're going to be defensive side too.
02:10Fair enough to like bring back?
02:12Fair enough for what?
02:13What's my goal?
02:14Fair enough to just go, all right, they improved.
02:18Let's give it a reset into he gets another chance at an evaluation next year.
02:23Okay.
02:23And then – so basically just not drive him off.
02:25Right.
02:26Right now, this Cowboys team is allowing a NFL record worst 51.5% third down conversion rate.
02:37It's the worst in the history of the NFL.
02:4151?
02:4151 third down conversion rate.
02:4351.4% third down conversion rate.
02:45All right.
02:45And league average is –
02:47It's like somewhere down around like 40, I think.
02:50Maybe upper 30s.
02:54So, 40% third down conversion rate for the defense the rest of the year.
02:58Not – that's what their number gets down to, but that is like what you sustain over the
03:02next eight, nine games or whatever it is.
03:0640?
03:0640%.
03:07So, that means if they're in there for Dan Orlowski –
03:10I know how the percentage is worth.
03:11For Dan Orlowski, 4 out of 10 or 40 out of 100, Dan.
03:154 out of 10 would be – you're getting basically – I mean, realistically, you're just getting
03:20one extra stop for every 10 third downs.
03:24No, not enough.
03:27I mean, that's good improvement.
03:29Yeah, I mean, if over the course of the season – because that would be – like I said,
03:33it's one every – basically an extra one or two per game that you're getting.
03:3740% would not be a bad percentage of staff over the course of the year.
03:41If it's – yeah, fine.
03:42If it works out to two extra ones per game –
03:43Yeah, roughly one to two depending on how many third down opportunities the team gets
03:46in the game.
03:46Well, it shows you how small the margins are, though, right?
03:49That one – just –
03:51Yeah, but there's also like a third and 10 or more stat that they –
03:54Oh.
03:55There was a point – there was a point this year where third and nine plus the conversion
03:59rate was 54%, and that was like two weeks ago.
04:01There you go.
04:02It's crazy.
04:02It's like a baseball.
04:03The difference between like a 270 hitter and a 300 hitter is one hit a week.
04:06In fact, their third down percentage was better.
04:08It sounded like a lot.
04:09Their third down percentage was better against third and eight or shorter than it was third
04:13and nine and plus.
04:14So that's how bad their defense have been this year.
04:16All right.
04:17Rush yards.
04:18This goes for offense and defense.
04:20Okay?
04:21Oh, gosh.
04:22You need to average 125 a game as a team.
04:28Giving up?
04:29No, that you're rushing.
04:30Okay.
04:30Under 25 or more.
04:31You need to average below that on the defensive side.
04:34So 125 is the rush number.
04:35They are currently allowing over 150 rushing yards per game.
04:39They're currently averaging, I think it's like 97 or something.
04:43Okay.
04:44And last week when they were ramming their head against the wall, that was like 95 yards.
04:47So you're just talking about being a little more efficient.
04:49125 is essentially what they averaged last year per game.
04:52So I think 125, just get back to where your running game was last year and cut down the
04:57runs or the rushing yards you're allowing by about 30 on average for the rest of the
05:02next eight games.
05:02Because that does allow you a game where maybe you pop and give up 180, but that means other
05:06games you're holding to like 100.
05:07Okay.
05:07That's good.
05:09This offense unable to average 100 yards rushing.
05:12I keep hearing Nate Newton and Jesse Holley seem to suggest, I don't know if big Nate's
05:16saying it to you on Wednesday nights.
05:18I'm hearing like some Javante questioning.
05:21He did last night.
05:22I may need to pull this.
05:23Yeah.
05:24I know he doesn't believe Javante's explosive enough and dynamic enough.
05:29And I think Jesse has talked about the backup running back needs to get a lot more touches
05:32for this offense.
05:33He was talking about being a better fit for this offense.
05:36And I was like, whoa, that's from DallasCowboys.com.
05:38Peyton, I don't know if you could find this really fast.
05:41Last night between 730 and 745, Nate talked about Javante Williams, if you could find it.
05:46If not, cool.
05:47But 730, 745, Nate talked about him and he goes, I hate to call out my guy.
05:54And he's like, he goes, I can't believe you're going to make me do this.
05:57Because I said, how can you just like handle things better as an offensive lineman?
06:01He's like, offensive linemen have got to do their job.
06:02He's like, but yeah, we need somebody to run with a little more like oomph to them.
06:10But 125, you get the running game back to where it was last year.
06:12I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation.
06:14I mean, the running game was fantastic.
06:15Good enough to be signed to a new deal last year.
06:18And I still blame the offensive line more.
06:2131 points per game the rest of the way.
06:23They're averaging 27 right now.
06:25So on average, again, you'll have a game where maybe you're only putting up 20.
06:28But that means other games you're popping more for like 40.
06:31So far this year, the most points they put up in a game was 38 against Philadelphia.
06:34Yeah.
06:35And I think 31 bumping it up by another four points per game for the rest of the season
06:40is not a bad expectation for what's supposed to be guiding.
06:43No, man.
06:44Stop using that phrase.
06:46Well, I put it in quotes.
06:47I did.
06:47I put it in Stephen quotes.
06:48Good God.
06:49We have to rank the nausea of their stupid nicknames.
06:53It doesn't feel like it.
06:53They are seventh in the NFL in scoring right now.
06:57What?
06:57Yeah, they're seventh in the NFL in scoring.
06:59Buffalo's at 33.3, Cincinnati at 29.4, Detroit at 29, San Fran 28.1, Jacksonville 28, Raiders
07:0827.6, Cows at 27.4.
07:11Yeah, man.
07:11You average 31, I'm never going to sit there and criticize you.
07:14So not for the whole season, though, but just for the final nine games.
07:17Yeah, good.
07:18So 31 points per game.
07:19Okay.
07:20You can only lose one game at home the rest of the way.
07:25Your games at home the rest of the way, San Francisco, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Jacksonville,
07:32New York.
07:32You have to handle all the games you're supposed to, and you have to steal one of Jacksonville
07:35and San Francisco.
07:37That is a benchmark for, okay, you did, you handled things.
07:41That's a fair, that is the.
07:44He's a good Bobby.
07:45That would be a good benchmark.
07:46That would be a good one.
07:47I don't think it's going to happen.
07:48I have to just say one loss at home.
07:49You don't have to pick which one, but just beat the teams you're supposed to and then
07:51steal one of those two.
07:53Well, it's not going to be San Francisco.
07:55Probably not.
07:56I am going to put, can you give me a future look at what that spread is?
08:00Can you just.
08:01Peyton found it for us the other day.
08:02It was wild.
08:02It was like.
08:03Can you tell me what the San Fran spread is?
08:05I am going to put so much money on this if it is within striking distance.
08:09Oh, it was nuts.
08:09What was it?
08:10Yesterday it was three and a half.
08:11San Fran, three and a half.
08:13By three and a half.
08:13What week is it?
08:15It's next week.
08:16Yeah, it's next week.
08:17It says week 10.
08:18It's next week.
08:20Which, by the way, how quick does.
08:22And look, the Powerball number just came up on my phone.
08:24Just as I was talking about that, someone won $847 million.
08:27It's not three and a half.
08:28It was.
08:28So right now.
08:30It can't be.
08:30It can't be.
08:32Still three and a half on the app.
08:33And I think they use DraftKings odds.
08:35DraftKings right now is three and a half.
08:36I'm getting.
08:38I'm starting to shake a little bit.
08:39Fan duals four and a half.
08:42Calshi.
08:43It doesn't say it's available on Calshi right now, at least on Vegas Insider.
08:46Okay.
08:46The consensus.
08:47The Vegas Insider consensus.
08:48The Vegas Insider website takes all the spreads.
08:51The consensus around the league, around all those, is three and a half.
08:55Some of them have.
08:58Caesar Sportsbook has the Cowboys minus one right now.
09:01I have Calshi 67% for San Fran, straight up.
09:06Now look, if this happens, I will start believing in the script.
09:09I was going to say.
09:10That y'all keep telling me about.
09:11Y'all keep preaching.
09:12I'm naive to the conspiracy theories.
09:14If that happens, like.
09:15Well, this is a line that doesn't make sense.
09:17And Lee Corso used to say in those, somebody knows something I don't, and I'm going with
09:22the somebody.
09:23How can you know this far out?
09:23Two weeks from now.
09:24Exactly.
09:25What would you know this far out?
09:27Other than the substation.
09:29I mean, it could be, yeah, the subs could be match.
09:31Most of these would be match-up related.
09:33I don't know.
09:34I'm going to make it rain for the Tolos if that hits.
09:36How quickly, if they were to, they'll, I assume they're going to beat Indy this week,
09:41but you can't really bank on anything.
09:43Yeah.
09:43If they beat Indy, and then they were to beat San Francisco, how quickly does everybody
09:47jump back on?
09:48I mean, San Francisco beating them, and yes, that would, because you theoretically should
09:53have now won four straight games.
09:56No, but he's saying, what happens, is there a bandwagon if you beat Indy than San Fran?
10:02Yeah, people are dying to get back on it.
10:04They're dying to, people love football.
10:06They want to be, they want to be a happy life, happy football.
10:10Mm-hmm.
10:11All right, and then, connected to it similarly, the rest of the way, you need to get to a winning
10:17record by the end of the season.
10:18You have to go six and three the rest of the way.
10:20And win the East?
10:21I didn't have winning the East in there as part of it, but that, maybe that gets you
10:25there, but six and three the rest of the way, that means no more than three losses, and
10:28you still have San Francisco, Seattle, Rams, Jags on the schedule.
10:31NFC East favorite right now, well, first let me go to East.
10:35Give me the East favorite.
10:37Giants.
10:38It is the, Giants choppy?
10:41Yeah, I think, yeah, I'll say Giants.
10:43Minus 125, Giants.
10:45Cowboys plus 220, then the Commanders, blah, blah, blah, whatever.
10:49The problem the Giants you're going to run into is the tie.
10:52The tie's going to screw everything up.
10:54NFC East from BetOnline, the Cowboys before the year to make the playoffs was minus 120.
11:01Right now, it's plus 220.
11:04So there's a 28% drop in playoff probability from the start of the season.
11:11Right now, the Giants to make the playoffs is minus 150.
11:14Philadelphia is plus 1600.
11:16Now with Joe Milton, Washington, plus 375.
11:19Cowboys over under in Vegas to start the year for wins was nine and a half.
11:23What does it fall into?
11:25Seven and a half.
11:26Seven and a half on the dot.
11:30First NFL coach fired.
11:33Steichen.
11:35Yes.
11:36Then?
11:39Bulls?
11:40No.
11:41No, they've rallied.
11:42Yeah, they have.
11:43But, I mean, well.
11:44They're winning without competing passes.
11:45That's right.
11:47AFC.
11:49AFC.
11:50Oh, Aaron Glenn.
11:51Aaron Glenn.
11:52Then Schottenheimer at 3-1.
11:54Ooh.
11:54Then Dan Quinn, Sirianni, Jim Harbaugh, D'Amico, Todd Bulls, Robert Sala.
12:01Will Brian Schottenheimer be the Cowboys coach next season?
12:04Yes.
12:04Yes or no?
12:05Yes.
12:05Yes.
12:06No is the slight.
12:08There's opportunity to win some money there.
12:09Yep.
12:10Noah's the slight favorite at minus 140.
12:1358% probability of the Cowboys having a new coach for the start of the season.
12:17Plus 100 for yes.
12:19Plus 100.
12:20So you're not going to win a ton of value, but the odds would favor you if you think he's
12:24coming back.
12:24He is probably coming back.
12:25Yeah, I mean, and if you do that.
12:26Unless the bottom falls out.
12:28If it's just.
12:28And the bottom is, you know that cup, you know, like in Bobby's car where he doesn't
12:33change his cups out and the bottom of the cardboard gets wet and soaks through and
12:38fills up the cup holder, the bottom of the cup is soaking wet.
12:42Believe me, I know about that.
12:45When it soaks through, that can be messy.
12:49I mean, if it's 58%, you can make some decent money on the 42% on Kalshi if they have
12:57that,
12:57if they have the same number.
12:58All right.
12:59So I'm betting Sam Fran and Schottenheimer return.
13:02I think he returns.
13:03I don't, I, I, I, it would have to go really south where the players quit on him and Dak
13:10walks into the office and says, we made a mistake because Jerry is not going to pay.
13:15Well, they're trading down according to Zach.
13:17Right.
13:18Jerry is not going to pay a coach for two years.
13:21He might do one year.
13:23Didn't Zach say Matt Eberflus was an awesome defensive coordinator too?
13:26No.
13:26I think he did.
13:27He said the play, the defensive blame needs to be on the players and not the coordinator.
13:31And that take is not looking that bad.
13:33By the way, yeah.
13:33And I saw your little side swipe yesterday on Twitter, Zach.
13:35That's nice.
13:36I'm surprised you, I'm surprised you want to get into anything.
13:39I thought you were going to come in with a rap.
13:42I thought you were going to come in with a rap.
13:44No, I come in with a rap when I'm being playful.
13:48I move much quieter when you're actually in my sights now.
13:52Because Zach said something like what?
13:54Real G's moving silence like lasagna.
13:57And what did he say?
13:58That Bobby should be taking some shoddy ownership instead of coming to me for my deck takes.
14:02Oh, yeah.
14:03I got you, Sammy.
14:04Yeah, I got you, Sammy.
14:05I mean, no, only half of what he said was true there.
14:08That I did lobby for Kellen.
14:09I still don't think Kellen's a bad coach.
14:10I think New Orleans is a dumpster fire.
14:11I still would take Kellen in here.
14:13But then when he said, like, Bobby advocated the shoddy hair.
14:16I was like, I did.
14:17I said, I think he's a effective communicator.
14:20I get why they, like, were sold on him.
14:22That's what I said.
14:23Which was less slobbery than Zach's statements about him.
14:25Oh, my gosh.
14:26What did we talk to him at TraderCamp?
14:28It was so good.
14:30Give me more.
14:32And he picked him to go to the Super Bowl?
14:33Yeah.
14:34And then he's like, they're going to be in the NFC title game.
14:36Then it's, guys, it's time to trade Dak Prescott.
14:41You need to ask your quarterback.
14:42Wave your claws.
14:43Wave your claws.
14:43Wave your claws.