- 33 minutes ago
In this episode of Statecraft, Geeta Mohan examines critical global and national developments shaping politics and security. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured an unprecedented fourth presidential term after defeating Flavio Bolsonaro in a closely contested election marked by economic uncertainty and political division. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Israelis living overseas are flying home to cast their ballots in a decisive election that poses a direct challenge to Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership, with far-reaching consequences for Gaza, conflict with Iran, and United States Middle East strategy. In India, tension has escalated in Arunachal Pradesh over the proposed 11,200-megawatt Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, intended as a strategic buffer against China's massive upstream hydropower dam in Tibet. Protests spearheaded by the indigenous Adi community have turned violent amid fears of submergence and environmental damage. Finally, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has returned to Caracas after months abroad, following dramatic political shifts in Venezuela.
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00:00What happens when Israel votes on Benjamin Netanyahu's political future?
00:04And what happens when India's battle for water security
00:07sparks resistance in Arunachal Pradesh?
00:11Today, two stories about power, security and difficult choices.
00:15First, to Israel.
00:16As Netanyahu faces a crucial election,
00:19will a change of leadership change Israel's policies on Iran and Palestine?
00:24And what would his defeat mean for Donald Trump's Middle East strategy?
00:28Then to Arunachal Pradesh in India.
00:31China's massive hydropower project in Tibet has intensified India's push
00:36for an 11,200 megawatt dam on the Siong River.
00:41But can India counter China's strategic advantage
00:44without alienating its own indigenous communities?
00:49Hello and welcome. You're watching Statecraft with me, Gita Mohan.
00:52Brazil has delivered a political shock that could reshape
00:55Latin America's battle between the left and the right.
00:58At age 80, Luis Inasio Lula da Silva has pulled off another extraordinary comeback,
01:04defeating Flavio Bolsonaro to secure an unprecedented fourth presidential term.
01:09But this victory is far from a national reconciliation.
01:13With Brazil deeply divided, investors nervous,
01:16and the opposition questioning the result, Lula's biggest battle may have only just begun.
01:22Brazil's electoral court has declared Lula the winner with 51.8% of the vote against Flavio Bolsonaro's 48.2%.
01:31The result overturns expectations after Bolsonaro's son finished first in the opening round.
01:37It also delivers a setback to the right-wing political movement associated with former President
01:42Jair Bolsonaro and the wider populist wave sweeping Latin America.
01:47The election was marred by allegations of voter suppression and a last-minute extension of voting hours.
01:54Bolsonaro has called for the result to be annulled.
01:57But Lula's support among poorer voters, particularly in Brazil's northeast, proved decisive.
02:03Yet the victory comes with serious economic risks.
02:05Investors are worried about Brazil's rising debt and fiscal deficits.
02:10Households are struggling with high borrowing costs and the rising cost of living.
02:15Lula now must assure financial markets without abandoning the social programs that underpin his support.
02:23And the political challenge is just as formidable.
02:26Brazil remains sharply divided between Lula's left-wing coalition
02:30and a conservative movement that retains substantial support.
02:34Congress, powerful agricultural interests, and tensions surrounding the judiciary will further complicate his agenda.
02:41For Donald Trump, Lula's victory complicates Washington's ambitions in Latin America.
02:47Despite tensions over tariffs and U.S. pressure, the two leaders have since opened the door to engagement.
02:53But with Beijing deepening its economic ties with Brazil, President Trump faces a delicate challenge.
02:59How to expand American influence without pushing Latin America's largest economy closer to China.
03:05For Lula, the balancing act is equally critical.
03:08Defend Brazil's sovereignty, preserve ties with Washington, D.C., and ensure that neither power dictates his country's future.
03:16He must govern a divided nation, stabilize its economy, and turn his promises into results.
03:22Thousands of Israelis are boarding flights from across the world, not for a holiday, but for a vote that could
03:28change their country's future.
03:30With Israel's October 27 election expected to be a close contest,
03:35citizens living abroad are traveling thousands of kilometers just to reach the ballot box.
03:41And in a race this tight, every vote could really count.
03:44At Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport, the arrivals are bringing more than suitcases.
03:49They're bringing votes.
03:51Israel does not generally allow citizens living abroad to vote online or by post.
03:56Apart from diplomats and certain official representatives, voters must return home to cast their ballots.
04:02An estimated 67,000 Israelis could make the journey, with around half expected from the United States of America.
04:09Others are traveling from Europe, Canada, Australia, and across Asia, often paying their own way.
04:16India Today Global's Pranay Upadhyay spoke to arrivals, excited to exercise their democratic right.
04:22Watch the special report.
04:34This is Ben Gurion Airport and many of these arrivals are not tourists or visitors.
04:39Many of them have flown thousands of kilometers for only one reason and that is to cast their vote.
04:45Israel does not allow postal or online ballots and that is the reason why many Israelis are flying back home
04:53to cast their vote.
04:55And many citizens of Israel are quite excited.
04:57We spoke to some of them and they said that that is the only reason they are traveling.
05:01And if you want to cast your vote, you must be here.
05:05That is the reason and that is the government statute.
05:08And that vote can only be casted in person.
05:11And this time they are coming in big numbers.
05:15According to many reports and especially a US-based group has estimated that up to 67,000 people have come
05:23back to Israel to cast their vote.
05:26And this has become an electoral issue as well because many people think that Israelis living abroad are not favoring
05:33the political dispensation which is currently ruling.
05:37And that is the reason that there could be some hindrance as well.
05:40But here when we tried speaking to people, they are quite excited and they said that they want to participate
05:46in the electoral process of Israel.
05:49And many people are coming from Canada, Australia, United States and most are paying their own way.
05:55So that is the excitement of the election here in Israel.
06:00And why does this matter?
06:02Because Israel has more than 70.3 million voters.
06:07Hi, what's your name?
06:09My name is Zofia.
06:10Zofia, I see that a lot of people are coming back to cast their vote.
06:14Why is it so important for people in Israel to come back home and cast their vote?
06:19You know, you have elections only once every few years.
06:23This is your chance to influence the future of the country.
06:25So this year felt even more important than usual because we had a few years that were not so easy.
06:31So a lot of people who are Israelis, but they live abroad.
06:33They felt like they have to come here this year and vote.
06:36And we hear about maybe 67K Israelis who are coming here flying especially to vote.
06:42Israel is a small country and the total voter number is also 7.3 million if I'm not wrong.
06:48So 67,000 is a sizable number.
06:51It's a big number.
06:51It's a big number, but it's not as big as it could be because we have a few hundred thousand
06:55Israelis who live abroad.
06:57So of course, it's a lot of money.
06:59It's a lot of time.
07:00Not everyone can afford that.
07:01But still, whoever can, it's a blessing.
07:04And people who are coming back, they are paying for their own ticket.
07:08Yes, they buy their own ticket.
07:09It's quite the sacrifice monetarily, but also time-wise.
07:13And, you know, they have jobs, they have families.
07:15So it's quite the sacrifice.
07:16So my last question, that there are political debates as well, that, you know, is there any effort to hinder
07:23their coming back or anything?
07:25Is there any political question about that?
07:27Oh, I don't know about that.
07:28Maybe there were some rumors.
07:29But what I can tell you is that just a few minutes ago, you saw some parties' representatives here trying
07:34to catch whoever is coming to vote, especially, and trying to convince them to vote for their party.
07:39So the political debate is everywhere, even here in the airport.
07:43So the airport has also become a canvassing ground.
07:45Yes.
07:46Thank you very much.
07:48Israel is heading into an election that could be a make-or-break moment for Benjamin Netanyahu's long political dominance.
07:55But here's the catch.
07:57Removing Netanyahu does not necessarily mean removing his policies.
08:01The war with Iran is far from settled.
08:03Gaza's future remains uncertain.
08:05Hamas is under pressure.
08:07But the question of who governs Palestine remains unanswered.
08:12And Donald Trump has publicly backed Netanyahu, making this election a test of his own Middle East strategy.
08:18So who are the candidates?
08:21What changes if Netanyahu loses?
08:23And could Israel change its leader without changing the course of the region?
08:28Israel votes on the 27th of October.
08:30And for the first time since Hamas' October 7 attack in 2023, Israelis will decide who leads the country through
08:38the consequences of that attack and the wars that followed.
08:42At the center of this election is Benjamin Netanyahu.
08:46His liquid party is facing a serious challenge after security failures of October 7th, growing public anger over military service
08:54exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews and years of political and legal controversy.
09:00Netanyahu denies the corruption charges against him and rejects allegations of war crimes.
09:06But his rivals are not necessarily offering a dramatic departure from his security policies.
09:12Meet Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief.
09:16He leads the centrist Yashar Party and is presenting himself as a more credible alternative on security and national accountability.
09:24Then there's former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who has joined forces with former Premier Yair Lapid under Together Banner.
09:31Avigdor Lieberman, a former Defence Minister and Netanyahu critic, is another potential player.
09:38And Yair Golan leads the left-wing Democrats.
09:42On Netanyahu's side are far-right figures Itamar Ben-Gavir and Bezalel Smotrich, alongside ultra-Orthodox parties that have helped
09:51sustain his government.
09:52But the numbers matter. Israel's parliament has 120 seats, a government needs at least 61, and with neither bloc guaranteed
10:02a majority, smaller parties, including Arab-led parties, could decide who governs.
10:09And that brings us to the first big question. What does this election mean for Hamas and the Palestinians?
10:16Do not mistake Netanyahu's possible defeat for an automatic change in Israel's policy towards Gaza.
10:22Israel's political establishment has increasingly converged around a tough security doctrine following October 7th.
10:30Even leading opposition figures oppose Palestinian statehood in the foreseeable future.
10:35A new government could therefore continue demanding Hamas's disarmament and prevent the group from rebuilding its military capabilities.
10:43But the method could change.
10:46A government led by Netanyahu's opponents might be more willing to work with Washington on a post-war arrangement for
10:53Gaza,
10:53including a new governing structure, security guarantees, and an Israeli withdrawal tied to agreed conditions.
11:01That matters because Trump's Gaza plan has faced resistance from Netanyahu,
11:06particularly over the proposed disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
11:12However, Hamas is not simply a military target.
11:17It is also a political and governing force.
11:20Weakening its armed wing does not automatically create a viable Palestinian administration.
11:26Nor does removing Hamas from power answer the larger question of Palestinian self-determination.
11:32And here is the uncomfortable reality.
11:35A government can be less confrontational diplomatically without accepting a Palestinian state.
11:41Israel's leading political camps remain deeply opposed to Palestinian independence.
11:46So even if Netanyahu loses, a two-state solution will remain a distant prospect unless political calculations change substantially.
11:56Now let us turn to Iran.
11:58Because this is where the election could have consequences far beyond Israel's borders.
12:03Netanyahu has argued that Iran's leadership must be confronted decisively.
12:09His government strategy has centered on military pressure, weakening Iran's regional network, and preventing Tehran from becoming a greater strategic
12:18threat.
12:18A Netanyahu victory, especially with the backing of his far-right allies, could strengthen his argument for continuing that campaign.
12:27It could also make diplomacy harder if military escalation takes priority over negotiations.
12:34But an opposition victory would not necessarily bring peace.
12:44The fundamental question is, therefore, not whether Israel will continue to oppose Iran, but how far it is prepared to
12:54go.
12:54And whether military force will be combined with diplomacy.
12:58There's also a risk that prolonged conflict could produce the opposite of what Israel wants.
13:03Iran could survive the military pressure, deepen its regional partnerships, and become even more determined to pursue nuclear deterrence.
13:12And then there is Donald Trump.
13:14The American president has publicly endorsed Netanyahu, praising him as a wartime leader and a partner in the campaign against
13:22Iran.
13:23That makes the Israeli election personal as well as strategic for Trump.
13:27If Netanyahu wins, Trump can argue that his support helps secure continuity with a familiar ally.
13:35But he could also face renewed pressure to back further military action against Iran, even as he tries to advance
13:43his own diplomatic agenda.
13:45If Netanyahu loses, Trump will face a different test.
13:49Can he work with an Israeli leader he has never partnered with in the same way?
13:53And can a new government deliver on his priorities for Gaza, regional security, and a possible Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement?
14:03There may be even an opportunity here.
14:06Some Trump advisors believe a different Israeli government could be more receptive to Washington's regional plans.
14:12But that is not guaranteed.
14:14A new prime minister could still resist American pressure if the proposed agreements are seen as compromising Israel's security.
14:22For Trump, the danger is clear.
14:24If Israel's domestic politics obstructs his plans, his claim to be reshaping West Asia could face a serious setback.
14:32And finally, what happens to Israel's foreign policy?
14:36Israel's ties with the United States, Europe, and Arab neighbors have come under growing strain.
14:42A change of government could improve diplomatic relations,
14:45particularly if the new leadership takes a tougher line against settler violence in West Bank.
14:52That could ease some criticism in Washington and Europe and help repair ties with Jordan.
14:57But do not expect a complete strategic reset.
15:00Israel's opposition leaders share many of Netanyahu's positions on Iran, regional security, and Palestinian statehood.
15:09Settlement expansion is unlikely to end overnight.
15:12Nor is Israel likely to abandon its reliance on military force
15:17or its determination to maintain security positions beyond its borders.
15:22The difference could be in tone, tactics, and willingness to negotiate.
15:27And coalition negotiations could delay even those changes.
15:31The election may produce a clear political message without producing a clear government.
15:36You see, this election is not simply about who wins Israel's election.
15:40It is whether a new government can change the direction of a region still shaped by war, mistrust, and unresolved
15:49political conflicts.
15:51What if the biggest threat to a river comes from upstream?
15:55And what if the answer to that threat could put an entire valley at risk?
15:59In India's Arunachal Pradesh, the Siang River has become the center of a fierce battle.
16:06On one side is China, building a gigantic hydropower project in Tibet.
16:12On the other is India, considering an 11,200 megawatt dam of its own.
16:18But between these competing strategic calculations are indigenous communities who fear losing their homes, their land, and their way of
16:27life.
16:27Protests have turned violent.
16:29Government offices have been set on fire.
16:32And a project meant to protect India's water security is facing resistance from the very people expected to live with
16:40its consequences.
16:41The controversy centers on the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, or SUMP, proposed in Arunachal Pradesh.
16:49The government sees it as a strategic safeguard against China's massive hydropower development on the lower reaches of the Yarlung
16:57Tsangpo in Tibet.
16:59Beijing formally launched construction of the project, commonly called the MeDog Hydropower Project, in July 2025.
17:07Its estimated generation capacity, around 60,000 megawatts.
17:13That is more than five times the proposed capacity of India's Siang project.
17:18And here is why this matters.
17:20The Yarlung Tsangpo flows from Tibet into Arunachal Pradesh, where it becomes the Siang.
17:26It then joins other rivers to form the Brahmaputra.
17:30What happens upstream does not stay upstream.
17:33Any major changes in water flows could have consequences downstream.
17:38Indian officials fear possible changes in discharge, water diversion, or sudden releases.
17:44But let us be clear.
17:45These are potential risks, not proof that China will deliberately weaponize the river.
17:51The question is whether India can prepare for those risks before it is too late.
17:56That is the argument behind SUMP.
17:59Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu says the proposed project could create a strategic buffer
18:06by storing water and helping moderate fluctuations in downstream flows.
18:11According to figures cited by him, China's project could have around 5.5 billion cubic meters of storage,
18:18while SUMP could provide approximately 9.2 billion cubic meters of live storage.
18:25But these are proposed figures.
18:27The actual ability of the Indian project to counter upstream changes would depend on engineering designs,
18:34hydrological assessments, and how the dam is operated.
18:37But this is where the government's strategic argument collides with the local reality.
18:42For the Adi communities living along the Siang, this river is not just a water source.
18:49It is their history, their agriculture, their culture, their ancestral identity.
18:55And they fear that a massive reservoir could submerge villages, swallow fertile farmland,
19:02damage forests and fisheries, and erase sites of cultural significance.
19:07Campaigners claim as many as 27 villages could face submergence.
19:11The actual scale of displacement, however, remains unknown.
19:15The immediate flashpoint is not damp construction.
19:18It is the preliminary survey.
19:21The government says the proposed pre-feasibility report, or PFR,
19:25is simply meant to determine whether the project is technically viable and where it could be located.
19:31The exercise is expected to run for three months from November 2026 to January 2027.
19:38But the Siang Indigenous Farmers Forum, which is leading the resistance, sees this differently.
19:45For protesters, the survey is the first step towards a project that could permanently transform their valley.
19:51And that distrust has now exploded in the streets.
19:55Protests intensified on 30th September during Chief Minister Khandu's visit to Upper Siang District.
20:01Fresh clashes followed on 4th October.
20:04Then, on the 23rd of October, a shutdown across the Siang Belt ended in arson in Pasihat.
20:11A police station and the NHPC office were damaged.
20:15The government insists no final decision has been taken on construction.
20:19But protesters are asking a basic question.
20:22If the project is still only being assessed,
20:25why should communities accept the risk before they know what they stand to lose?
20:30There's another concern.
20:31The Siang Valley lies in the earthquake-prone eastern Himalayas.
20:36The region is vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides and extreme rainfall.
20:40Building a massive dam and reservoir here raises serious questions about geological stability and disaster preparedness.
20:48Human rights lawyers have also challenged the government's China argument.
20:52Many have called for a water-sharing treaty between India and China,
20:56arguing that diplomacy must be part of the response.
20:59Their position is that the proposed dam itself could pose a major immediate threat to local communities.
21:07And that argument cannot simply be dismissed.
21:10China's mega-dam creates a strategic concern.
21:13But that does not automatically make every Indian dam the right solution.
21:17India needs reliable information about upstream water flows.
21:22It needs stronger diplomatic engagement with Beijing.
21:24It needs hydrological monitoring and disaster warning systems.
21:28And if a massive storage project is being considered,
21:31the government must establish what it can realistically achieve.
21:36National security cannot rest on assumptions alone.
21:39The Siang proposal has been around for nearly two decades.
21:42Earlier plans envisaged separate projects of 6,000 megawatts and 3,750 megawatts.
21:50The proposal later evolved into a multi-purpose project combining electricity generation,
21:56water storage and flood moderation.
21:59Yet technical challenges, environmental concerns and local opposition stalled progress.
22:05Now China's accelerating hydropower ambitions have given the project renewed urgency.
22:11But urgency is not a license to bulldoze public trust.
22:15The government says no construction decision will be taken without feasibility assessments.
22:20Any viable proposal would still require environmental and social impact assessments,
22:26a detailed project report, statutory clearances and consultations with affected communities.
22:32Khanru has also offered to visit villages and meet protesters.
22:36The government has formed a high-level committee under Minister O-Jing Ta-Singh to oversee the process and engage
22:43stakeholders.
22:44The problem is that communities do not appear convinced.
22:48Indigenous organizations argue that individual household signatures cannot substitute for consultations
22:54through village assemblies and traditional Kibang institutions.
22:58They want survey activities halted, security forces withdrawn from affected areas and cases against protesters addressed.
23:08The government, meanwhile, argues that the project could create jobs, improve infrastructure and strengthen India's long-term water and energy
23:17security.
23:18Both sides are talking about the future, but they are imagining very different futures for the very same valley.
23:24And this is where New Delhi must get the balance right.
23:28China's upstream mega-dam cannot be ignored.
23:31A river crossing international borders is a strategic vulnerability if downstream countries lack reliable information and safeguards.
23:40But neither can Arunachal's indigenous communities be treated as collateral damage in a geopolitical contest.
23:47Their concerns about displacement, seismic safety, ecology and livelihoods must be addressed before the government asks them to accept such
23:58a transformative project.
24:00India needs a two-track strategy.
24:02Push Beijing for greater transparency and meaningful water cooperation.
24:06Strengthened river monitoring, flood forecasting and emergency preparedness and subjects SUMP to rigorous, independent, scientific scrutiny.
24:17If the project is viable, the government must demonstrate how it will protect affected communities.
24:23If the risks outweigh the benefits, strategic anxiety alone cannot justify proceeding.
24:29Because the Siong is more than a line on India's security map, it is a living river, sustaining communities whose
24:37connection to it goes back generations.
24:40China's mega-dam has changed the strategic calculations, but the answer cannot be to demand that Arunachal's people simply bear
24:47the cost.
24:48India must protect its water security without sacrificing public trust.
24:53A dam may store water, but no government can manufacture consent.
24:58That's all in this edition of Statecraft.
25:00Before we go, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned to a deeply uncertain political landscape after more than
25:0810 months away from home.
25:10In January, Machado left Venezuela under cover of darkness on a speedboat to travel to Norway and receive the Nobel
25:17Peace Prize.
25:18A month later, the United States seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, her long-time political rival.
25:24And on Sunday, Machado was photographed attending mass in Venezuela's Lara State, where supporters embraced her and clasped her hands.
25:34She has since begun travelling towards the capital, Caracas, in a caravan of cheering supporters, with crowds gathering along the
25:43route to welcome her.
25:45Her return marks a significant moment for Venezuela's opposition, but the bigger question is, what comes next?
25:51Can Machado turn this public show of support into a political opening?
25:55And what does a return mean for a country still navigating profound uncertainty?
26:00That's all in this edition.
26:02Goodbye and take care.