00:00What does it tell us about London's political map compared to July when Keir Starmer was prime minister?
00:07Yes, this is a poll we did with PLMR.
00:10It's what we call an MRP poll.
00:12So it tries to make a prediction for every seat in the country, including every seat in London.
00:16And what we're seeing is very much that the burn and bounce, so-called, is bouncing everywhere in the country.
00:23But in London particularly, back in July and earlier in the year, Labour was in trouble in London.
00:28And London should be one of Labour's safest areas.
00:32It always has been historically in recent years.
00:35But that grit was loosening.
00:36But now Londoners are returning to Labour to voting for Andy Burnham.
00:40And so our poll shows that Labour would win a majority of the seats in London if there was a
00:46general election tomorrow.
00:47There's two main things happening, Nick.
00:50That firstly, on the left of centre parties, Andy Burnham is doing very well at consolidating that vote under the
00:56Labour column.
00:57Under Sir Keir Starmer, Labour voters had been splintering off to the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, or maybe deciding not
01:03to vote at all.
01:04Andy Burnham, he's not quite reversed all those trends, but he's certainly reduced them a lot and has brought back
01:09some of those voters back to Labour.
01:12And say, if we take the Greens as an interesting example.
01:16Back in May, the Greens did very well in the local elections.
01:19We had polling suggesting the Greens could win more seats in London than Labour.
01:22But that's faded now as Burnham's taken over from Sir Keir Starmer.
01:27And we saw that being underlined with real votes in the recent Hoban and St Pancras by-election,
01:32where Labour won fairly convincingly over the Greens in a seat which earlier the Greens might well have hoped to
01:37win.
01:37Politically speaking, Andy Burnham has eaten Zach Polanski's muesli.
01:41That he has moved Labour a little bit to the left and brought back Green voters back into the Labour
01:49Party and left Zach Polanski a bit exposed and less the force he was in London.
01:56The other one, of course, is the fact that their opponents on the right are more divided than ever.
02:01Not only are there the Conservatives and reform, but there's also Restore is eating into reform votes around the country
02:08and depriving reform of votes.
02:11So whilst the left are uniting, the right is still very divided.
02:16And in the first past the post-electoral system that we have, the more united side tends to win.
