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00:00There's definitely a burn and bounce happening.
00:02The big issue they face over the summer is promises, promises, promises.
00:06What are the risks that are being stored up by making these commitments
00:08and then failing to achieve them or indeed fund them,
00:11which is a large part of the kind of how are you going to make this happen?
00:15Mr Farage is, of course, busy in Clapton.
00:18I don't want to trash talk him, but he's fighting off bin face.
00:21I see what you did there.
00:22Zach Polanski has been in trouble for yet again.
00:25Having slightly fat thumbs on social media is the charitable way of doing it.
00:30OK, this is exciting because we're dusting off our crystal balls.
00:33Mystic Mac.
00:34There's a hosepipe ban.
00:36The railways are melting.
00:38We're all worried about wildfires.
00:40Everyone's on holiday and Parliament is in recess.
00:42It's truly British summertime.
00:44While Andy Burnham's team is still living by the government comms grid,
00:47announcing a big new shiny policy almost every morning,
00:50what on earth are the other party leaders getting up to?
00:53Well, one poll earlier this week nudged Labour ahead of reform
00:57for the first time since March 2025.
01:00Others have put them neck and neck.
01:01I'm Cleo Watson, a former special advisor to Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
01:05And I'm Helen McNamara, the former Deputy Cabinet Secretary.
01:08And this is In The Room.
01:13Before we get into it, we'd love it if you followed the show on Instagram
01:16where you can find all the best bits.
01:19We are at intheroom.pod.
01:21You can also watch us on YouTube.
01:22Our channel is called In The Room Politics.
01:25And if you've got a burning question or a nice bit of feedback,
01:28you can email us on intheroom at independent.co.uk.
01:31Well, Helen, I've got my duly promised Angela Rayner glasses on
01:35because I'm going to take you through a bit of polling
01:38just on the state of play where the parties are as per this week.
01:43So, Servation, YouGov and More in Common have both done polls.
01:48More in Common have Labour at 28, Reform at 24, Conservatives at 22,
01:54and the Lib Dems and Greens 12 and 8, respectively.
01:57So, that is the poll where Labour have had this little burn and bounce
02:01everyone's been talking about.
02:03Servation and YouGov is more of the same, I would say.
02:07And YouGov has Labour and Reform on 22 each, Conservatives on 21,
02:12Lib Dems on 11, and Greens slightly up on 13.
02:15So, essentially, a little mixed bag there.
02:19What we talked about on Tuesday was how Burnham so far,
02:22in the bounce he's seen for Labour, is consolidating some of the Lib Dem and Green votes.
02:28And I would say he's bearing that out across the board.
02:32That's not a massive gain, but it is a gain.
02:35I love how much you love a poll, by the way.
02:37It just literally gladdens your heart every time you read out this list of numbers.
02:41So, we've talked a lot about Labour recently,
02:43so we're not going to spend much on that this episode.
02:45You will be pleased to hear.
02:47But we should just recap a bit on what Andy Burnham's announcements have been
02:51so far as Prime Minister.
02:52So, this week we've seen, and last week, we've seen education, social care,
02:56defence, fiscal devolution, some really headline-grabbing things.
03:00So, the promised to end homelessness, two-pound cap on bus fares,
03:04cutting VAT on electricity bills.
03:07He didn't mention that it was a Brexit dividend, Cleo.
03:09Cutting business rates for pubs and clubs,
03:11promising that 14-year-olds will be able to get early access
03:14to technical education and work experience,
03:16big plans to set up a national care service,
03:18and billions promised for nuclear submarines.
03:21So, the thing that all of these announcements have in common
03:23is that they're very heavy on the kind of what and the why
03:26and extremely vague on the how.
03:29So, a big issue they face over the summer is, you know,
03:32promises, promises, promises.
03:34What are the risks that are being stored up by making these commitments
03:37and then failing to achieve them or indeed fund them,
03:41which is a large part of the kind of how are you going to make this happen,
03:44but not the only thing that needs to be explained.
03:47Yes.
03:47You talked on Tuesday about how governing is boring,
03:50and I think this is a classic example of that,
03:53of, ooh, big shiny comms announcement.
03:55This is what we intend to do.
03:57Oh, and there is some grunt work to do underneath.
03:59Oh, how are we going to pay for it?
04:01Never mind, never mind.
04:02And, you know, Andy Burnham's got the summer to try and get everybody to know him.
04:07We talked about how poor his name recognition was on Tuesday,
04:10and he visited a care home on Wednesday
04:15where there's a very, very nice clip of an old man saying,
04:18ooh, are you the local candidate?
04:19And Andy Burnham has to say, oh, actually, I'm the new prime minister.
04:23And the guy sort of says, oh, God, not another one.
04:26Oh, just as we're all feeling, really.
04:29Oh, no, I was a local candidate.
04:31I had a by-election a few weeks ago,
04:34but, you know, I'm now the prime minister.
04:37You're what?
04:38He's the prime minister.
04:40Well, a new one.
04:43Another one.
04:43But I've changed you before.
04:45Oh, I know, I know.
04:46The trouble is with some of the promises is that, you know,
04:49Parliament is coming back in September
04:51and the level of scrutiny and questions over lots of his announcements
04:55will only get tougher.
04:57But in the meantime, he's announced he's going on a listening tour
05:01of the UK in August while Parliament is in recess.
05:05Lucky old Andy and lucky old residents of the UK
05:07on his list are Aberdeen and Patalbot,
05:10which I think will be, you know,
05:13probably some great new media coming out of it,
05:15some great new socials for him.
05:17Like I said, he does need to get people to know him.
05:21I think one of the dangers,
05:23it'll be really interesting to see how he will cope
05:26with the kind of under pressure people coming to him saying,
05:32I'm, you know, here's a very personal, difficult story for me.
05:36How are you going to respond to this?
05:37And him potentially doing a bit of just saying
05:41whatever is convenient at the time.
05:43Politicians do it all the time.
05:44Will there be yet more things that cost money
05:46by the end of the summer that are coming to catch up with him
05:49that he had not foreseen?
05:50Yeah, and we've seen a bit of that already
05:52where he said something and then either his team
05:54has to backtrack a bit.
05:56Care home visits you mentioned are particularly problematic.
05:59I remember that from an events and visits
06:01and totally reasonable.
06:02I mean, poor people who live in care homes,
06:04sort of the last thing they need is the whole apparatus
06:06that comes with the prime ministerial visit
06:08turning up at them.
06:10And one of the really weird moments in the Olympic bid
06:13was that to get to the best view of the whole of the Olympic Park
06:17in East London, you had to go up this council-owned block
06:21and stand on the roof.
06:22And then you were at the apex of the park.
06:24And it was totally different.
06:24It was all kind of industrial wasteland
06:26and a really kind of deprived area.
06:28And so you'd stand there at the top with whoever it was from the IOC
06:31and say, look, imagine it's going to be absolutely amazing.
06:34And we basically trooped everybody important through this.
06:37We had to go, to get onto the roof,
06:38you had to go literally through the care home.
06:40And we used to always,
06:41obviously we got to know the people there very well.
06:43And I used to always worry that at the weekend,
06:45you know, when their family came to visit,
06:47all these people would be saying like,
06:48oh, we have the queen in here this week.
06:50And the relatives would be like,
06:51oh yes, dear, of course you did.
06:53Unfortunately, he's really, he's really,
06:54he's declined really rapidly, but actually we did.
06:57We had loads of the royal family.
06:59The prime minister was there quite well.
07:00It was a really, yeah,
07:01I'm not sure how kind that was in retrospect.
07:04But anyway, that was then.
07:06Shall we talk now about the Conservatives
07:09and Kemi Badenock,
07:11because she has been doing very well.
07:14She's got the highest approval rating
07:15for any Conservative leader since April 2021,
07:19which is at a magnificent minus 11.
07:21Yes, and she's threatening her own summer tour.
07:24So God help all of us.
07:26Just a little context on the improving approval
07:29that she has, that at the moment,
07:32about a third of the public see her positively.
07:36That was only a fifth a year ago.
07:38So it does show, you know,
07:40aside from what she has done
07:42in Conservative leader terms in five years,
07:44what she has done for herself in a year.
07:48However, we've talked about this so many times,
07:50but a rising tide does not lift all boats.
07:53And the Conservatives have just been bumping along
07:55at about 20% since she became party leader.
07:59They're just not moving in the polls.
08:02And she's had an interesting eye-grabbing stuff recently
08:05where she's really tightened up
08:07the Conservative policy agenda.
08:09She's basically issued an outright ban
08:11on candidates who don't share
08:13the Conservative stance
08:15on changing how they go about net zero,
08:18leaving the ECHR.
08:20But she's actually lost some former Conservative MPs
08:24who wanted to come back as candidates.
08:26Is that how, because Grant Shapps,
08:27who held like a massive number of ministerial posts,
08:31basically, I think he was a minister from 2010 onwards
08:33in the Conservative administrations,
08:35and he didn't get selected even
08:37to stand as an MP in the next election.
08:39Is that through all of this net zero?
08:41I don't remember him being a big fan of net zero
08:43and the ECHR, was he?
08:45They've not expressed a reason.
08:48And they've just said he doesn't pass requirements,
08:51whatever that means.
08:52And, you know, it's quite a bold move
08:55because it wasn't that long ago
08:57that the Conservatives were hemorrhaging MPs to reform.
09:01So she sort of, it's almost like she thought,
09:03well, if I'm losing some dead wood,
09:04I may as well really go for it
09:06and get my chainsaw out.
09:09She has an interesting and quite similar stance
09:11to Andy Burnham, which is, you know,
09:14you talked on Tuesday
09:15about the Laura Koonsberg interview he did.
09:18Well, it was all about him.
09:19So everything he wants to do,
09:21Andy Burnham is going to change social care.
09:23Andy Burnham is going to fund defence.
09:25Andy Burnham wants to change the education system.
09:28And Kemi Bainock, you know,
09:30I don't think actually is trying
09:32to do everything single-handedly,
09:33but she's the only one getting a reaction.
09:35She's been asked several times
09:36that she's going to do a reshuffle.
09:38And the answer keeps coming back as,
09:41well, people haven't got to know
09:42my current front bench.
09:44And you think, but they're not getting to know them.
09:46Why would you not, again,
09:48while we're in the Deadwood season,
09:49we don't want a wildfire,
09:51quickly get rid of it
09:52and bring in some new fresh people
09:54who can make more of an impact.
09:56Because, you know,
09:57meeting Andy Burnham's cabinet,
09:59who seemed to be very invigorated at the moment,
10:02let's see how long that lasts,
10:03why would you not kind of match that energy
10:05in September?
10:07Seems a shame.
10:08I don't think I could reliably name
10:10more than five or six of the shadow front bench.
10:15No, no, there were people I didn't realise
10:17were still MPs who were in the cabinet.
10:20I mean, that's not, that's not great.
10:23Yeah, it's amazing how low profile
10:24they have been, actually.
10:25There's been some other interesting things
10:27with Kemi Bainock.
10:28And I mean, listeners will have heard me
10:30so many times sort of warning against
10:32getting overexcited with the idea
10:35that celebrities might be backing you
10:37because my sort of purchase in this bit
10:39is the Vote Leave campaign
10:40where we could never get celebrities
10:42out to back us.
10:44And the Remain campaign were able to get,
10:46you know, the most well-known names
10:48in Britain out every day
10:49saying you should vote Remain.
10:51But when push came to shove,
10:53normal voters didn't find it convincing
10:55that these people shared the same values
10:58and had the same problems as them
11:00in their lives.
11:01And one of the interesting things
11:02that is happening with Kemi Bainock
11:04at the moment is she's got people
11:06like Nicki Minaj and Azalea Banks
11:09as her sort of hype girls on Twitter.
11:11But she's got Dame Maureen Lipman
11:14who's been a Labour supporter
11:16for over 50 years.
11:18And she's come out and said
11:20that she's considering voting Tory
11:21for the first time
11:22because she thinks Kemi Bainock's so amazing.
11:24And I think there's some interesting bits
11:26within there, which is Dame Maureen Lipman
11:28is Jewish and she's actually had people
11:30boycotting shows she's been in
11:32over the Gaza issue.
11:34And Kemi, you know, we talked about this
11:36in the Golders Green attack reaction.
11:39Kemi's had a very strong, immediate,
11:42correct, in my view, response
11:43to a lot of that.
11:45I wonder how much that is kind of playing
11:46into that specific case.
11:48But it's quite interesting
11:49to think people are now, you know,
11:51the celebrities two years ago,
11:54not in their right mind were they saying,
11:56oh, I'm going to vote conservative.
11:57It was like uncool.
11:59And it's quite interesting
12:01to see people feeling a bit bolder
12:03and less embarrassed and, you know,
12:06not feeling like secret conservatives,
12:08but actually coming out and saying,
12:10yes, here I am on national television
12:12saying I am considering
12:14the unthinkable voting conservative.
12:16And I'm sure you're right
12:17that that is in reaction some of the time
12:19to the way that Kemi Bainock
12:20has actually demonstrated more clear
12:23moral authority in response to some issues.
12:25She's led the way, much more so
12:27than any of the other parties.
12:29Should we talk a bit about
12:31Kemi's biggest rivals on the right?
12:34Where do you think we are
12:35with Reform and Mr Farage?
12:38Well, Mr Farage is, of course,
12:40busy in Clacton fighting
12:42the by-election that he called for.
12:45He's fighting off,
12:46I don't want to trash talk him,
12:49but he's fighting off Binface
12:50and indeed 32 other candidates.
12:52I see what you did there.
12:54Yeah, very good.
12:55Nice.
12:56I've got my witty glasses on.
13:00So he's got this funny stage
13:01of just being able to be
13:03out of the spotlight for a little bit,
13:04which whilst there are still questions
13:06ongoing about reforms, donations,
13:09and there's stuff every day
13:11by the looks of things
13:12about how they're being funded.
13:14He's been able to say,
13:15no, I'm just concentrating
13:16on being in Clacton.
13:17Thank you very much.
13:18Obviously, they have suffered a bit
13:20in the polls recently,
13:22but I don't think they're going
13:24to be that unhappy about it.
13:26In the last month,
13:27they have walloped the Tories
13:29in the Norfolk Police
13:31and Crime Commissioner race.
13:32And for lots of people,
13:34I'll think, so what?
13:36But Norfolk's a really interesting area
13:39to go for.
13:40I want to talk about this shortly,
13:43but it's quite rural.
13:44It seems to be an area
13:45that Labour have slightly vacated.
13:48That's great ground for reform
13:51to try and make gains
13:52against the Conservatives on
13:54and indeed the Lib Dems.
13:56So I don't think they're feeling
13:58like they're completely sunk yet.
14:01He's, as I understand it,
14:03more than likely to win
14:05the Clacton by-election.
14:06Who knows if there'll be another one?
14:08And I think for Reform HQ,
14:11it's been very hard to make the case
14:14that they are an insurgent
14:17and they're not the establishment
14:18when they've been leading the polls
14:19so consistently for,
14:20I think it was 15 months.
14:22So they probably don't mind
14:24coming in second for a while.
14:27Farage himself likes horse racing
14:29and there's a classic racing strategy
14:32to sort of duck in number two,
14:34go in the slipstream
14:36of the horse in front
14:37and then in the final sort of furlong
14:40come out in front.
14:42I hope he doesn't get too aggressive
14:44with the whip,
14:44but that could be what they're thinking.
14:46Why not sit pretty for a bit,
14:48have something to chase
14:49and slightly go to ground
14:52whilst there are questions being asked
14:54over the summer
14:55about how they are running as a party.
14:58So to entirely switch gears
14:59and switch sports,
15:00because I really doubt
15:01Zach Polanski is a fan of horse racing.
15:03It's not a very green party thing.
15:05I had said that I thought
15:07Zach Polanski's behaviour quite often
15:09was like a petulant teenager
15:11and my petulant teenager,
15:13not petulant teenager,
15:14who could overhear said,
15:16quite rightly,
15:17hard corrected me on
15:18that actually this was an unfair slight
15:20to teenagers.
15:21So I need to be a little bit careful.
15:23But this week,
15:24Zach Polanski has been in trouble
15:25for yet again,
15:27having slightly fat thumbs
15:28on social media
15:30is the charitable way of doing it.
15:31So I don't know if you remember,
15:33but after Golders Green,
15:34he got into trouble immediately
15:36because he retweeted
15:37or shared something
15:39which was heavily critical
15:40of the police response
15:41to that terrorist attack.
15:43And he had to,
15:43eventually an apology,
15:45a sort of half apology
15:46was dragged out of him for that.
15:47And this time he,
15:49bear with me,
15:51collaborated on a reel,
15:52I think it's called.
15:53Anyway,
15:54the reel in question
15:55had a picture of a guillotine
15:59and Nigel Farage
16:01is somebody,
16:01something about making plans for Nigel.
16:02So really horrible
16:04political violence actually.
16:06There is an issue
16:07in the Green Party,
16:08I think,
16:08where they haven't adjusted
16:10to the sort of responsibilities
16:12that come with being
16:14in the political mainstream
16:15and they're going to get
16:16much more scrutiny
16:17and much more people saying,
16:19hang on a second,
16:19this isn't okay.
16:20So it's interesting to see
16:21how that is playing out.
16:23It was an agonising interview
16:25to watch actually
16:26because he didn't want
16:27to get caught up
16:28in apologising for it,
16:29although he did admit
16:30it was a misstep.
16:33Do you want to take
16:34this opportunity
16:34to apologise to Nigel Farage?
16:36Well, if I'd done it deliberately,
16:37I'd be apologising.
16:38But because this was a mistake,
16:40I think the important thing
16:41is that I point out
16:42it's a mistake,
16:43that I also make sure
16:44that I condemn
16:44political violence.
16:45And also crucially,
16:46I make a commitment
16:47to be better on my social media.
16:48It really just made me think,
16:50guys,
16:51you're not going to get
16:52taken seriously
16:53as a party
16:53if this is the kind of stuff.
16:55You're really telling me
16:56no one in Zak Polanski's team
16:59is just triple-checking stuff
17:01before he just retreats,
17:03reshares.
17:04Or just taking his phone off him,
17:06maybe,
17:07is the other thing to do.
17:08Like, if this is like two strikes,
17:10then, you know,
17:12just don't do this again.
17:13It doesn't help anybody.
17:14The other thing
17:15that I think is interesting here
17:16is that what we're seeing
17:18in some of the commentary
17:19and certainly in some
17:20of the sentiment
17:21that's being expressed
17:22by people in the party
17:23is this divide
17:23between old greens
17:25and new greens.
17:27So, you know,
17:27the old green party,
17:29broad climate activism,
17:31ecological conservation,
17:32local community issues,
17:34you know,
17:34really popular,
17:35actually,
17:35local councillors,
17:36definitely where
17:37I lived back in the day
17:38that they were just very good
17:39at kind of practically helpful,
17:41earnest, worthy people
17:42who wanted to make a difference,
17:44obviously,
17:44with a heavy tinge
17:45towards environmental concerns.
17:47And then you've got
17:48this kind of new greens,
17:51unapologetic eco-populism.
17:52You're right to kind of put
17:53the kind of side by side
17:54with reform there.
17:55Extremely online,
17:57hyper-focused on the kind of
17:58high oxygen,
18:00sugar rush,
18:01national election victories,
18:02national politics.
18:03It does feel like a party
18:04of at least two heads.
18:06I mean,
18:06I know they're not
18:07the only people
18:07that have that going on,
18:10but it does feel
18:10challenging for them.
18:12Yes,
18:12and it's really uncomfortable
18:14because,
18:14you know,
18:15some of the more established
18:18greens,
18:20let's say in the old greens,
18:21some of whom
18:21were in the House of Lords,
18:23are essentially being purged
18:25and they themselves
18:27are coming under pressure
18:28from colleagues.
18:29I saw that
18:30Zach Goldsmith
18:31had tweeted at
18:33Jenny Jones
18:34saying,
18:35I don't know
18:36if you've seen this,
18:37but the newly elected
18:39Hackney mayor,
18:40who's green,
18:42has written
18:43to an Israeli
18:45town mayor
18:46who kind of
18:47twins cities with them
18:48and says,
18:49you have to untwin
18:51with us
18:51by the 7th of October.
18:53The 7th of October,
18:53very interesting date
18:55to choose them.
18:56Deliberately.
18:56That's horrible.
18:57And it must be
18:59incredibly uncomfortable
19:00for people like
19:01Baroness Jones
19:02who are thinking,
19:02this is not the party
19:04I was involved with
19:06for such a long time.
19:07And also,
19:08is it working?
19:08Because what is so interesting
19:10in this big dip
19:11in the Greens'
19:13fortunes in the polls
19:14at the moment,
19:14if you look at the
19:15YouGov poll,
19:16for example,
19:17the youth vote,
19:18which is 18 to 24,
19:20they have gone from 46%
19:22to 26%.
19:23So that's a 20% drop
19:26and they've gone to Labour.
19:27And so it's just not
19:28smart politics either,
19:30some of this,
19:31and people don't like it.
19:32And why would you not
19:34apologise over this
19:35guillotine remark
19:35and just draw a line
19:37under it,
19:37get going?
19:37They should have seen
19:39how damaging
19:40the reform candidates'
19:43comments were
19:43about women in Makerfield.
19:44By refusing to draw
19:45a line under that
19:46for reform,
19:47it rolled on
19:48and on and on
19:49and over 50%
19:50of the women
19:51in Makerfield
19:51voted for Andy Burnham.
19:52Look,
19:53we've said this a few times,
19:54if you have to have
19:54a seven or eight sentence
19:55explanation of why
19:56you haven't just done
19:57the simple thing,
19:58then that's never
19:59going to work.
19:59We should just say
20:00that the Hackney mayor,
20:01who's called Zoe Garbutt,
20:03has since apologised
20:04for what she called
20:05her deeply regrettable
20:07oversight.
20:08And she's changed
20:09the deadline
20:10for the Israeli mayor
20:10on the Twin Town
20:12to October the 14th.
20:15Still,
20:15I can't believe
20:16that anyone
20:16in a professional outfit
20:18wouldn't have
20:18cast a cursory glance
20:20over the 7th of October
20:21and thought,
20:22hmm,
20:22that seems deeply
20:23insensitive to me.
20:25But look,
20:25if the Greens
20:26are falling in popularity,
20:28then let's move on
20:29to our other friends.
20:30What on earth
20:30has happened
20:30to the Lib Dems?
20:31We shouldn't forget
20:32that the Lib Dems
20:33are a really important
20:34political force.
20:35Firstly,
20:36that there are 72 MPs
20:38in 2024
20:39that are Liberal Democrat seats.
20:41What's going to happen
20:41to them
20:42at the next election
20:42really matters.
20:43If you start thinking
20:44about coalitions
20:45and coalition building,
20:46what those Lib Dem MPs
20:48do really matters.
20:49But also,
20:50what the kind of
20:51Liberal Democrat
20:51sympathetic voters do
20:53and where they put
20:54their vote.
20:54And arguably,
20:55if you've got Andy Burnham
20:56moving leftwards
20:57and mopping up
20:58all of the Greens,
20:59and you've got
20:59Kemi Bednock
21:00moving rightwards
21:01and closer to reform
21:03in order to manage
21:04down that vote,
21:05you've opened up
21:06this massive space
21:07in the middle
21:07for a kind of
21:08old-fashioned,
21:09conservative-leaning-ish
21:11Liberal party,
21:13or certainly for those votes.
21:14But that's not at all
21:15where the Lib Dems are.
21:17And their leader
21:18isn't making any
21:19headway at all.
21:20No, and actually,
21:22internally,
21:23Lib Dem members
21:24are very unhappy
21:25with Ed Davey.
21:26And I wonder
21:28whether he might have
21:29a fight on his hands
21:30soon,
21:31because, you know,
21:32I've not seen him
21:33out and about at all.
21:35I'd be expecting him
21:36to kind of pop up
21:37on a log flume.
21:38It's that time of year.
21:39Where's Ed, surely?
21:40Yeah, exactly.
21:41Capitalising on those discounts.
21:43And I thought it was
21:43especially interesting
21:44that Andy Burnham
21:46is managing
21:47to sort of hold
21:48the space
21:49on social care
21:50at the moment
21:50with his announcement.
21:51There's been,
21:53Ed Davey speaks
21:54incredibly authentically
21:55and very beautifully
21:56about how he has cared
21:58for his son
21:59and his whole life
22:01in caring, really.
22:02And one of the tragedies
22:04is that as part of
22:06Andy Burnham's
22:07hand-holding exercise
22:08with the other parties,
22:09he's invited them
22:10all on board
22:11to essentially agree
22:12to the same social care plan.
22:14You know,
22:15I'd like to stay positive,
22:16but good luck
22:17reaching consensus
22:18on the how.
22:20You know,
22:21everyone agrees
22:21something needs to happen,
22:22but they disagree
22:24on how to do it.
22:25That is also happening
22:26within the Lib Dems.
22:28So Ed Davey himself
22:29can't get a coherent policy
22:31on social care
22:31within his own party.
22:34And I'm mainly interested
22:37in the Lib Dems just now
22:38because I live
22:40in the South West
22:41and not to make everything
22:42about me,
22:44but here we go.
22:45The Lib Dems
22:46have had an incredible bump
22:47in the South West
22:48from three seats
22:49to 22 seats
22:50in 2024.
22:52I mean,
22:52it's massive
22:53and they managed
22:54to essentially poach
22:55most of them
22:56from the Conservatives.
22:57This is traditional
22:58Lib Dem heartland.
22:59That is where
22:59they have done really well.
23:02It's only in the latter period,
23:03post-2015,
23:04they didn't do well,
23:05but it's heartlands,
23:06the South West,
23:06for the Lib Dems.
23:07And there's been
23:08this incredible
23:09pincer movement
23:09in the 2024
23:10general election
23:11where the Conservatives
23:12got caught between
23:13the Lib Dems
23:14and the Reform.
23:15And Reform
23:15were able to just
23:16skim enough off
23:17essentially 12,
23:1915,
23:1918%
23:20to make
23:21all the difference.
23:22And the Lib Dems
23:23obviously understood
23:24that they are
23:25great campaigners.
23:27They had a very smart guy
23:27running their campaign
23:28and they were
23:29extremely tactical
23:31which places
23:32they fought in.
23:33And the South West
23:33was a really big part
23:35of that.
23:35People might remember
23:36that Ed Davey
23:37was out doing
23:37most of his stance
23:38in the South West.
23:39And even since
23:41the 2024
23:42general election
23:43he was having
23:43cream teas,
23:44he was playing cricket,
23:45he was doing
23:46lots of army visits
23:47which was quite
23:47interesting.
23:48And he got into
23:48a kind of whole
23:49veterans army
23:50housing spree
23:52which is a big issue
23:54down in the South West.
23:55And I'm just intrigued
23:57about the whole area
23:59from a next
24:01general election
24:01point of view.
24:03But you were saying
24:04to me before
24:04the call
24:05that you have
24:05another reason
24:06why the South West
24:07is quite interesting.
24:08Well, so you'll
24:09have seen
24:10the bumper
24:11series of announcements
24:12which are about
24:13devolution
24:13and Andy Burnham
24:15no surprise there
24:15talks a lot
24:16about mayors.
24:17We all need
24:18to remember
24:18that it's not
24:19that the whole
24:20far from the
24:21whole country
24:21is covered
24:22by these
24:22metro mayors.
24:23So there are
24:24mayors for about
24:25half of the population.
24:27The different powers
24:28and the different
24:29structures
24:29and the different
24:30geographies
24:30it's a sort of
24:31deliberately designed
24:33slightly chaotic
24:34system.
24:35Andy Burnham
24:35has said this week
24:36in our kind of
24:37latest Endeavor
24:37news
24:38is that mayors
24:39will get some
24:40of the tax receipts
24:41from income tax
24:42and business rates
24:43in their areas
24:44and they're going
24:45to be able to
24:45decide what to do
24:46with that money.
24:47Now, we knew
24:49this was coming
24:49but what the
24:50reform and
24:50conservative mayors
24:51particularly Ben
24:52Houchen
24:52who's the mayor
24:53up in Teesside
24:53has been straight
24:54out the door
24:54saying is
24:55thanks very much
24:56I'll be giving
24:57that back to my
24:57voters.
24:58So it's not that
24:59you're giving me
24:59this money
25:00and I will then
25:01be investing in
25:01the infrastructure
25:02which is what
25:02you have in your
25:03heads.
25:04You're going to
25:04give me this money
25:05and I'm going to
25:05make myself even
25:06more popular
25:07by literally
25:07finding ways
25:08to give it
25:08back.
25:08So that's
25:09one kind of
25:09headache.
25:10The other
25:11sort of
25:11headache
25:11that's
25:11emerging
25:12is the
25:13areas of
25:13the country
25:13where there
25:14aren't mayors
25:14and the
25:15southwest is
25:15one of them
25:16and particularly
25:17there's a
25:17long-running
25:18argument with
25:19Cornwall
25:19who there's
25:21been a very
25:22very strong
25:23tradition in
25:23Cornwall
25:24saying actually
25:24we shouldn't
25:25just have a
25:26mayor we
25:26should have
25:26much more
25:27regional
25:27devolution
25:28or even
25:28arguably
25:29there's been
25:29a Cornish
25:30independence
25:30movement.
25:31This is a
25:31very strong
25:32regional identity
25:33that want to
25:34be able to
25:34have powers
25:35over their
25:36money their
25:36choices.
25:37You know
25:38Cornwall we've
25:39talked about
25:39sometimes on
25:39the podcast
25:40that it's
25:41really hard
25:42to overstate
25:42just how
25:43different rural
25:44communities are
25:45coastal
25:45communities are
25:46and Cornwall's
25:46got both of
25:47those things
25:48that you you
25:49need to think
25:50about what is
25:50going to be
25:50right in
25:51different places
25:51and we've
25:52seen this last
25:53week that in
25:53response to the
25:54announcements on
25:55fiscal devolution
25:56Cornwall is
25:56saying thanks
25:57very much
25:57we'd like
25:57that too
25:58that doesn't
25:58fit with the
25:59mayor model
25:59it's messy
26:00this stuff
26:01and there are
26:02going to be
26:02parts of the
26:03country that I
26:03think are going
26:04to find it
26:04particularly
26:05irritating and
26:06the southwest
26:06has got that
26:07written all over
26:07it.
26:08Yes and Andy
26:09Burnham has
26:09got to start
26:10thinking what
26:10his offer is
26:11to these areas
26:12because you
26:13know I think
26:14we talked last
26:15week about
26:16what a great
26:17move I think
26:18would be if he
26:18were to reverse
26:19the IHT tax
26:20for farmers
26:21because which is
26:23an inheritance tax
26:24for them because
26:25he doesn't
26:26really have an
26:26offer otherwise
26:27and he doesn't
26:28pretend to be a
26:30man who's sort
26:30of totally au fait
26:31with rural
26:32issues and I
26:35just don't know
26:36what his offer
26:37is for areas
26:38like this he's
26:38been very very
26:39clear that he
26:41wants to
26:41redistribute wealth
26:43and power from
26:44the southeast to
26:46the north or at
26:47least the northwest
26:48and then there are
26:49just whole chunks
26:50of the country
26:52which are slightly
26:53left spinning
26:55I don't know
26:56what his plan
26:56he's come to
26:57Bath so far
26:58to talk about
26:58buses but I
26:59don't know what
26:59his plan is going
27:00to be and it
27:01will be interesting
27:02to see how he
27:03was received on
27:04his summer tour
27:04in some of these
27:06places if he even
27:07goes there it may
27:08be that it's
27:11Kemi Badenoch is
27:12mainly going down
27:12to the southwest
27:14because she must be
27:15looking at some of
27:15those polls and
27:16thinking hmm I
27:18can potentially
27:20squeeze the Lib Dems
27:21and squeeze the
27:21reform on some of
27:22this stuff because
27:23there'll be previous
27:24conservative voters
27:25there who will
27:26have not wanted to
27:27vote conservatives
27:28in 2024 because it
27:29was a referendum on
27:30the conservatives
27:31and whether she can
27:33convince the reform
27:34leaning people that
27:35you know she's a
27:37righty and she's on
27:39their side and whether
27:40she can convince the
27:41Lib Dem people that
27:44she's got enough of
27:46that kind of Cameroon
27:47softer energy which
27:49they might prefer and
27:50I think a great place
27:51to see this play out
27:52will be Danny Kruger's
27:53seat Danny Kruger is
27:54one of the few well
27:56was one of the few
27:57remaining conservative
27:58MPs in the southwest
27:59after the 2024 general
28:01election in Wiltshire and
28:03then he defected to
28:05reform and he was
28:06actually I think one of
28:06the more sensational
28:08reform defections he
28:09went last September
28:10and people keep asking
28:12me how I feel having
28:14left the sinking ship
28:15of the Tory party and I
28:18feel pretty good we are
28:20riding high the wind is
28:21in our sails and people
28:24are furious and there's
28:25a huge race a very
28:27hotly contested race on
28:28who gets to fight that
28:29seat for the
28:30conservatives because you
28:32can definitely see a
28:33route back to snatching
28:35that back off Danny
28:37Kruger because in
28:39tactical voting I think
28:41you can find a lot of
28:42Lib Dems sitting around
28:43there who think well it
28:45won't conservative last
28:46time even in a referendum
28:48on the Tories and I
28:50would rather have a
28:51conservative over a
28:53reform MP perhaps let's
28:54give them a go.
28:55Isn't that the
28:55interesting thing about
28:57the Lib Dem vote though
28:58is that nobody can bank
29:00on the Lib Dem vote as
29:01a block going anywhere
29:03so that was the thing
29:04that you picked up when
29:05you looked at the
29:06Manchester voting system
29:07so the new mayor of
29:09Manchester is most
29:10likely to be a woman
29:10called Beverly Craig
29:11who will be Andy
29:12Burnham's successor
29:14there was a plan one of
29:16the kind of starmer
29:17trying to put roadblocks
29:18in the way of Andy
29:19Burnham becoming
29:19Prime Minister at one
29:21point the Labour Party
29:22were full of saying
29:22well Andy Burnham can
29:24win Makerfield and then
29:25the next thing he must
29:26prove is that he can
29:27also get a new Labour
29:29candidate in as his
29:30successor that has
29:31turned out to be a dog
29:32that just I mean it
29:34didn't even bark at all
29:35I mean there's nothing
29:36nothing there not a
29:38peep because Beverly
29:39Craig is going to storm
29:40home by all accounts as
29:41the new Labour mayor
29:42but and you'll correct
29:44me on this there's a
29:44vote there's a different
29:45voting system as well
29:47as all of the confusion
29:48and different treatment
29:49we have of mayoral
29:51offices in the country
29:52we also have loads of
29:53different electoral
29:54systems going on
29:54there's a new one in
29:56Manchester and you can
29:57you have to state your
29:58second preferences is
29:59that right?
30:00That's right so you put
30:01a first preference down
30:02and then a second
30:03preference down and
30:04then if one candidate
30:06does not take 50% of
30:08the vote then the top
30:10two candidates stay
30:11in everyone falls by
30:12the wayside and the
30:13second preferences kick
30:16in but more in common
30:17have this really
30:18brilliant a kind of
30:19infographic which is the
30:21first and second
30:21choices and you can see
30:23everybody's first choice
30:24and then how that kind
30:26of voting coalition
30:27splits so for example
30:30Geraldine Goggins to the
30:31Green Party she might be
30:33you know a green person's
30:34first choice they almost
30:36all go straight to Bev
30:38Craig in Labour the
30:40Labour Party vote pretty
30:42clearly splits actually
30:44quite evenly between
30:46mainly Greens
30:47bit of Lib Dems
30:48bit of Conservatives
30:49bit of reform the
30:50interesting splinter here
30:52is the Lib Dem vote
30:55which basically evenly
30:57splits between Labour
30:59the independent candidate
31:00the Green Party the
31:02Conservative Party reform
31:03and restore Britain the
31:05reason I think this is
31:05important is because in
31:08traditional polling you
31:09don't get to see
31:10people's second
31:11preferences so when we
31:14are thinking about a
31:15general election in a
31:15couple of years time
31:17this is quite a clever
31:19indicator I think of how
31:22people might tactically
31:23vote not least a Lib Dem
31:25a canny Lib Dem because
31:27you you know it's so
31:29interesting to me that
31:30they are split five or six
31:32ways between Lib Dem
31:33first and if it can't be a
31:34Lib Dem it could be
31:35anywhere between a Green
31:37and a restore candidate
31:38quite interesting and I
31:40wonder whether there'll be
31:41more of this more of this
31:44questioning going forward
31:45even if it's not a system
31:47that I would particularly
31:48prescribe to personally
31:51the other thing that I
31:52think is important to just
31:53kind of have in the back
31:53of our minds is that
31:55there is a really strong
31:56folk memory in Andy
31:57Burnham's bit of the
31:58Labour Party so that's the
32:00collective of people
32:01around him particularly
32:02those who worked for
32:03Gordon Brown around 2010
32:05that the Labour Party
32:06really fluffed the
32:07opportunity to create a
32:09coalition with the
32:10Liberal Democrats then
32:11and that that was more of
32:12an opportunity than was
32:13given credit for at the
32:14time and part of the
32:15problem was the lack of
32:16any connective tissue with
32:17the Liberal Democrats at
32:18that point the connective
32:19tissue was much stronger
32:20into the Conservative Party
32:22as well as there are lots
32:22of other reasons why the
32:24coalition became
32:24Conservative Lib Dem
32:25rather than and a lot of
32:26that was to do with
32:27change but if you notice a
32:29little bit there's a
32:30little undercurrent in
32:31what Andy Burnham said so
32:32far the social care
32:33announcement is the
32:34biggest one of these
32:35where he's proactively
32:36reaching out and saying
32:37I want to work with you
32:38and I will bet you will
32:39see all sorts of ways in
32:41which these 72 Lib Dem
32:43MPs are effectively tried
32:45to be brought into the
32:46fold alongside Labour in a
32:49kind of long run-up to a
32:51potential coalition after
32:52the next election you know
32:53if Andy doesn't continue
32:54to walk on water and be
32:55able to storm it in the
32:56way that some of them
32:57hope I expect we're going
32:58to see much more
32:59snuggling up between
33:00those those two parties
33:01and that will be quite
33:02deliberate on the Labour
33:03Party side.
33:04I agree and with that in
33:05mind why would Labour
33:06strategists send candidates
33:08and and the Prime Minister
33:09down to the South West if
33:11it's already feeling like a
33:12Lib Dem stronghold and you
33:13can help them shore it up
33:15and you think your best best
33:16at the next election is
33:17hopefully majority but you
33:20know second preference a
33:22Lib Lab coalition you know
33:24it's it's not the worst
33:25thing to just leave that
33:27alone and keep your
33:28resources places where you
33:29really want to target.
33:33OK this is exciting because
33:35we're dusting off our
33:36crystal balls mystic
33:37map the place I'd like to
33:40start is not just what we
33:43think the parties a
33:44political party is going to
33:45get up to you but where do
33:47you see this sort of new
33:48structuring of government
33:49and the new kind of lay of
33:52the land how do you think
33:53that is actually going to
33:55work out in next month
33:57three months year.
33:58It's interesting this is the
33:59first time there's been lots
34:00of talk about rewiring the
34:01states and big changes and
34:03revolutions coming this is
34:04actually the first time we've
34:05seen some really significant
34:07changes to the set up of
34:08Whitehall and Westminster.
34:10Number 10 North has got a
34:11massive amount of attention
34:12it's not just that the
34:14abolition of the Department
34:15for Science Innovation
34:16Technology which we talked
34:17about a couple of weeks
34:18ago you know close Whitehall
34:20watchers will see that the
34:21arguments around that are far
34:22from done.
34:23So this week we had a new AI
34:26task force announced so last
34:30week the Minister Patrick
34:33Valance was removed of his
34:35post in the Department for
34:36Science Innovation Technology
34:38this week he's back he's back
34:40chairing a task force on AI she
34:43says hesitantly and that's a
34:45task force chaired by him he's
34:46reporting directly to the
34:47Prime Minister on AI but then
34:49so is Kanishka who's going to
34:52be in the cabinet reporting
34:53directly to the Prime Minister
34:54on AI and Antonio Romeo is
34:56also reporting directly to the
34:57Prime Minister on AI it was one
34:59of those things if you kind of
35:00it's one that if you know you
35:01know the press release you're
35:02like wow there's been some
35:04negotiations and fights
35:05behind the scenes here and I
35:07think the kind of rumblings and
35:08the way in which we see the
35:10changes implemented we see new
35:11ministers get their feet under
35:13the desks it's not going to be a
35:14quiet summer for Whitehall I
35:15mean far from it thinking
35:16thoughts and prayers to my
35:18former colleagues there's a lot
35:19of actual rewiring going on and
35:21that takes up a lot of time and
35:23energy
35:23yes and with the best will in
35:24the world this is the way to
35:26make people bump heads if
35:27there's not a clear line of who
35:29reports into who and who an
35:30ultimate decision maker is and by
35:32the way it can't always be the
35:33Prime Minister because I think
35:35it's worth noting that he has
35:37written to all Labour MPs
35:40literally saying you know if if
35:42if your dog's getting
35:44christened I'll be there I
35:45mean he's offered to be so
35:46available to people and he's
35:48going to you know turn up as
35:50much as he can so much of it
35:52being on him and his time and
35:53his energy means that he
35:55necessarily has to delegate some
35:58decisions and we talked a couple
36:00of weeks ago about the
36:00structuring of his team he's got a
36:03lot of political strategy people
36:04he's got a lot of strategic
36:05comms people there is you know
36:08overlap is fantastic when you're
36:09all pointed in one direction and
36:11you have a clear sense of um how
36:13decisions are made and whether
36:15there's a hierarchy and who owns
36:16what but um this is where there
36:19can be unhelpful friction and
36:22mistakes in exactly this kind of
36:24who right so who is in charge of
36:26AI AI would love this kind of
36:28confusion and AI would actually be
36:29probably quite good at making an
36:31organogram to um make this a bit
36:34more straightforward if I can have a
36:37go at a prediction we've talked at
36:39length about how Andy Burnham has
36:42perhaps with folly made made um this
36:46big point about how much of these
36:48announcements and how much of this
36:50thinking is to do with him I'm going
36:52to sort social care I'm going to fund
36:53defence you know in that Laura
36:55Koonsberg interview he never
36:56mentioned any members of his
36:59cabinet and I think that the
37:03strategists at the various opposition
37:05parties should be meeting him on the
37:09ground that he is putting himself
37:11onto so I think that I think there
37:15are sort of two ways to do this it's
37:17him and his personality and you can
37:21try and trip him up in two directions
37:22the first is he actually is the same
37:25old Labour he he worked for Brown and
37:28Blair and you know to one of the
37:30points you made after his education
37:32announcements it's it's uh the Labour
37:36the last Labour government who's
37:37actually caused quite a lot of our
37:39problems in the education system and
37:41and university places opening up and
37:42fees going up um and perhaps get him
37:46on some health things and you know
37:47various other um piece of the puzzle
37:50he's been connected to even if he isn't
37:52necessarily responsible the 2008
37:55crashes I'm afraid a classic of the
37:57genre so there's a bit of painting is
38:00the same old nothing's going to
38:01happen um it's it is the Labour
38:05party which you know so far they his
38:09team are being keen to distance him
38:10from it's all been about Andy but also
38:13there's a second thing to get him on
38:15which is he is this new person he is
38:18scary he is actually going to do these
38:19things and this is scary lefty Labour
38:22populism and we should all be very
38:24very frightened so it's like a funny
38:26there are two arguments to run at once
38:29and I suspect we'll see some ducking
38:31and diving from particularly the
38:33reform party and the Conservatives
38:35where they're they're making both
38:37incompetence and competence arguments
38:39yes you know this is a this is social
38:42care is a problem but he has no plan
38:44same old Labour he they just want to
38:46spend your money or yikes he is actually
38:49going to do this stuff quickly stuff
38:50your cash in your mattress and run for
38:53the hills and I think we'll see like I
38:55said some interesting jostling so they
38:57try and land punches on him and he has
39:00in some ways opened the door to that
39:02by making it all about him so far
39:05my big prediction is we're going to see
39:06a resurgence of the cabinet I mean they
39:08have given these ministers have given a
39:10lot of space to their new prime
39:12minister fair enough but there will come
39:14a point when they will want to be out
39:16there doing things themselves and you
39:18know wise prime ministers would also
39:20welcome that but I can't imagine that
39:22we're going to see these people muzzled
39:24saying nothing for months and months and
39:25months and months and months so I'd
39:27expect that to happen I'd expect some
39:29of the hard choices to come much more
39:31into daylight I think you know we've
39:33probably Andy Burnham's honeymoon will
39:35last the summer September is going to
39:38be a pretty like big bump back to
39:40school I'm sure the party conference
39:42will go really well I'm sure the party
39:43conference this year will be I was at
39:45the one after the 2024 general election
39:47I was expecting it to be full of like
39:48excited happy people thinking these are the
39:50best things ever happened and they were
39:52so miserable it was like why are you so
39:53miserable so it was pretty weird I think
39:56they're going to have another go that
39:57we're treating second chance to make a
39:59first impression second chance to have a
40:01big celebration and be confident I'm
40:02sure the party conference will be Andy
40:04aren't you great isn't everything
40:05lovely everything's fixed now so my
40:07other big prediction and we were also
40:09going to set ourselves some reasons to
40:11be cheerful as well as reasons to be
40:12gloomy is that I do think the
40:14announcement on social care of a big
40:17conversation that Louise Casey is leading
40:20who's been tasked with thinking about
40:22social care like right from the
40:23beginning just after the 2024 election
40:25she didn't have the same kind of
40:27backing as she's got now and that is a
40:29really good thing and this is a big
40:31broad conversation it is something that
40:33we do need to fix as a country and if
40:35you're going to give a hard problem to
40:36anyway anyone definitely give it to
40:38Louise Casey and there's a hard
40:39deadline by next year so I am expecting
40:42some kind of reality underneath that
40:44conversation because she's not a
40:45theoretical she's not she's many
40:47things she's not a theoretical
40:48abstract change person Louise she's
40:50somebody who's going to want to know
40:51that her effort is leading to actual
40:54change that happens so I am really
40:56optimistic about that I am optimistic
40:59about that too and it should be a
41:00lesson in how to structure these
41:02things that there's you know there's a
41:03very clear person dedicated to handle
41:05this rather than half a dozen people
41:08in charge of AI just just putting that
41:10for example yeah for example I am
41:14intrigued also to see whether the other
41:17parties join hands with Annie Burnham
41:19and I think collectively you'll have
41:21enough respect for Louise Casey on you
41:24know hearing about her social care ideas
41:26and what could be done about it the
41:28where I'm perhaps a bit more negative
41:31is everyone agrees this is a huge
41:34problem but there is massive anxiety
41:37about how this can be done there's a
41:39reason it's not been solved before
41:40right it's not an easy one and there
41:42were already stories sort of leaking out
41:45the young earners will be required to
41:48essentially foot the bill for their
41:50parents and grandparents generation
41:52making it even harder for them to buy
41:54homes making even harder to start
41:56businesses and stuff like that and as
41:58much as I think wouldn't it be great
42:00to have all the parties you know not
42:02treating the NHS and social care as a
42:05political football and trying to make
42:07gains from it there were political and
42:10practical reasons largely involving
42:13voter coalitions death taxes lots of
42:17things that have caught out previous
42:18governments on why this is going to be a
42:21lot more difficult than just being
42:24determined to solve it sorry sorry Andy
42:27thank you for listening to today's
42:29episode remember to follow the show on
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42:39during August starting next week it's
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42:45insiders on our special series
42:47lessons from number 10 so stay tuned for
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43:00this podcast is part of the independent
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43:06executive producer is Rod Ardahali and
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43:12Nushka and our video editor Vali Reza
43:14thanks for listening and stay tuned for
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43:1810 coming out next week
43:19you