00:00So what are we doing? What are we doing here with this one?
00:03I would like to let you go first, Dave, and how you see a number that is moving towards FSU.
00:12I think 19 and a half now showing up here in the market.
00:15How you you see this game playing out?
00:18Yeah, I live this as a kid down in Miami, Miami, Florida State every single year.
00:23Like this was life back then. Obviously, it's different now in the different era.
00:26I firmly believe this this could get ugly in Miami and the weather is going to be dicey, but Cain's
00:32off a bye.
00:32They always circle this game. You might say, oh, it's Florida State. It's not, you know, it's not Notre Dame.
00:36Well, it means something. It does. It always does. These kids compete in high school.
00:40Then they go to Miami or Florida State or Florida. It always matters.
00:44And when one team is significantly better than the other, it becomes a blowout.
00:48That's what we have seen in the history of the series. Yeah, you've played the wide right, left and right
00:52games when they're both top five teams.
00:54But when they're not both top five teams and one is better than the other, it gets ugly. Sure.
00:58Seminoles hung around last year, only lost by six. But keep in mind, Kevin, that was a three in one
01:03Florida State team that was ranked 18th.
01:05They just come off an Alabama upset. Then their wheels have fallen off Florida State.
01:09Since that Miami game, they're only five and eight and a shell of that team.
01:13The FSU team is bad in many, many ways. We've talked about it in the show.
01:17I feel like I've done something with my life if I've convinced you not to take the points here.
01:22But let me tell you why you shouldn't take the points. Their defense is 122nd in the country.
01:28For those counting at home, there's only 130 teams. They're 122nd in defense.
01:33This is Florida State we're talking about. 410 yards allowed per game.
01:37They're 114th against the pass. 244 a game. 102nd against the run.
01:43They allowed 50 to Alabama. They allowed 44 to Louisville.
01:47Now they, by the way, face the best offense in football.
01:50The Canes averaged 49 and a half points per game, 555 yards per game, second in the country, first in
01:57points.
01:58Granted, playing FAMU and they're playing, you know, Stanford, I get it.
02:03Florida State, not much better than those teams.
02:06Their defense is arguably worse.
02:08How I'm playing it, since I don't like laying 21 points in any way, shape, or form in any game,
02:13I'm taking the Miami team total over 37 and a half because Miami could probably print whatever number they want
02:19and score against this horrific defense.
02:22I'm also taking Darian Mensah, over 269 and a half passing yards.
02:27I mentioned the pass defense. Horrific. 114th in the country.
02:32Mensah's going to throw the ball as many times as he wants and complete it as many times as he
02:37wants.
02:37And I have him getting 270 or more, as well as the Miami team total over
02:41because Florida State can't stop anybody.
02:48So, this is an interesting one.
02:53I was certain a week or so ago I'd end up on FSU here.
02:59Then we go back to last Friday.
03:03Florida State is dominating Louisville.
03:06Dominating.
03:08And I'm like, oh no.
03:10The FSU number is going to be so short against Miami.
03:16I'm not going to be able to bet them.
03:19And they then proceed to lose 44-20.
03:2344-20.
03:24So, I tell myself, man, I'm going to have to get just like the most point,
03:29like 24 points with Florida State.
03:33And the number was 21.
03:35I said, no, no, no, no, no.
03:37I'm not doing it.
03:38Florida State is going to get destroyed.
03:41Like, Miami will cover this easily.
03:45And then I said, well, you know, we can still look into the game.
03:48And I'm like, wow.
03:50You can probably make a case that the number is just like a bounce too high.
03:54And then, you know, you look around and there's some smart folks.
03:57We're like, yeah, I kind of show a little bit of value on FSU here, but I'm good.
04:05I'm good.
04:06I'm not doing this.
04:09And I want this to be very clear.
04:11I am not betting this game.
04:14I am not doing it.
04:16I am not betting this.
04:17Good.
04:18But I am telling you, it has all of the makings of the how did Mario let this happen loss.
04:27I am not betting it.
04:29You do not have to give me any credit.
04:31You do not have to give me an ounce of credit.
04:34I am just telling you that there's usually, like, a couple of people who are like, watch
04:40out for Mario, right?
04:42Or, ah, this is a little high.
04:43And this is the people who trust their numbers to the death, Dave.
04:48Like, this is too high.
04:50And they're like, nope, not doing it.
04:53And it just feels like Norvell is going to have a lead he doesn't deserve in the third
04:59quarter.
05:00And maybe he'll mess it up.
05:01But there's just some, there's something in the air, Dave.
05:06If this was SMU, maybe, but not Florida State.
05:12I'm going to go out and say it's 47-17.
05:15That's where I'm going with this one.
05:1730-point route.
05:18Could happen.
05:19Could happen.
05:20Could happen.
05:20Could happen.
