Analyzing Florida State vs. Miami's Dynamic Offensive Play

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00:00Let's look at the line itself.

00:01The opening number, Joe, three and a half.

00:03We saw it most of the week still staying at three and a half,

00:05but yesterday we had some movement.

00:07I'm seeing now FanDuel four and a half, DraftKings four,

00:10BetMGM four and a half, Bet365 listed at a four right now.

00:14Move yesterday, but the one thing I can't get a grasp of, Joe,

00:16the 52 and a half did go to 53 and a half.

00:18Florida State averages 600 yards per game on offense,

00:23and Miami's no slouch on offense either.

00:25This game, to me, seems like it should have great tempo

00:27and it should score.

00:29Am I wrong with that?

00:29I mean, if you're Florida State,

00:31you want to see if you can run the football on the front seven.

00:33They're averaging, Donnie, 53 points per game,

00:36336 rushing yards per game,

00:40and that goes right into the strength of Miami,

00:42holding opposing offenses to 79 rushing yards per game.

00:46Miami's averaging around 35.

00:47They've held USF in check.

00:49They've held Florida in check.

00:51Some of the other teams on their schedule.

00:53The only team that really, I want to say,

00:55separated them and abused them over the top was CJ Carr

00:58and Notre Dame.

00:59Can Castellanos do that today?

01:01I think he can have success, but they need to start fast.

01:05If Miami goes on the road and jumps up early,

01:07could be lights out.

01:08By the way, you look at Miami's schedule, too.

01:09They open up against Notre Dame,

01:11and sometimes, Joe, you want to take that game

01:12with like a little bit of a grain of salt.

01:13The reason I say that is,

01:14you don't really know how teams are going to react

01:16because Notre Dame playing Miami now,

01:18CJ Carr's not throwing three-yard check down for three-quarters of that game.

01:21He's going to be going deep,

01:22and also the running game certainly getting cranked up for Notre Dame.

01:24But take a look at that game, 27-24.

01:27Next three games.

01:28Bethune-Cookman, not a good team, Joe,

01:29but only three points given up.

01:31USF last night scored a boatload of points.

01:33That's a good program.

01:34Twelve points they scored against Miami.

01:36And then Florida, who I don't love Florida's offense,

01:38but still holding a power four opponent there, let's just say,

01:41to seven points here in a rivalry game.

01:43That defense is really good.

01:45The offense for Florida State is really good.

01:46Like, who has that advantage for you today, Joe?

01:49See, I lean to Castellanos, and I lean to Florida State at home.

01:54And if they were on the road, I'd have a different assessment.

01:57But he showed the ability to break contain.

02:00He was battle-tested last week.

02:02Even when they fell behind,

02:03he found a way to get his team in a position

02:06to potentially tie it up in overtime.

02:08And we know about how good the Miami defense is.

02:1124% third-down defense,

02:13holding opposing offenses to only 168 passing yards per game.

02:18But, Donnie, even though they have a veteran quarterback in Carson back,

02:21and he's playing lights out up until this point,

02:23my one concern is, look at last year with Georgia.

02:26Three road games he did not play well.

02:28The three biggest games potentially on their schedule.

02:31Alabama, critical interceptions.

02:33They lose 41-34.

02:35He goes on the road.

02:36They win it by 15 against Texas,

02:38but he throws for 175 yards.

02:40Three interceptions.

02:41The road game to Ole Miss, a buck 86.

02:44No touchdowns, one interception.

02:46This is his first true road start for the Hurricanes

02:49with a lot of pressure.

02:50Jimmy Castellanos, I know it's a tough game,

02:53but I'm taking the points with Florida State.

02:55You take a look at Miami's schedule, too, right?

02:57Notre Dame, quality opponent.

02:58Bethune-Cookman, layup, we get that.

03:00USF, quality opponent.

03:01The same thing with Florida,

03:02what they're perceived to be a quality opponent.

03:04We'll see how they do today.

03:04We'll talk a little bit about Texas later.

03:06But Florida State, Joe, how am I grasping this team?

03:09It wasn't a fluke opening day that they routed Alabama.

03:12They were the better football team.

03:14Back-to-back, like, Division III layups,

03:16it felt like they played over the past couple weeks.

03:18Then they stepped up at UVA on the road,

03:20and maybe it was a look-ahead spot.

03:21They couldn't stop anybody in that game.

03:23What Florida State team am I expecting today?

03:25Well, again, I think they're going to try

03:26and run the football.

03:27The biggest thing, when you look at Florida State,

03:29forget their FCS win.

03:31Just looking at the FBS wins.

03:33Week one against Alabama, they run for 230.

03:36Kent State, I know it's Kent State,

03:38but still, we're talking about a MAAC opponent.

03:41498 yards, 9.2 yards per carry,

03:45eight rushing touchdowns.

03:46Last week in the loss, 256 rushing yards per game.

03:50Some came by Castellanos breaking contain,

03:53but you know Gus Malzahn wants to utilize motion.

03:56He wants to get that Miami defense running sideline to sideline,

04:00which would work off of play action,

04:02and then you could have some big hits with the passing attack

04:04the way they did week one against that Alabama defense.

04:07That is the matchup today, Donnie.

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