- 16 hours ago
Pat Boyle, host of BetMGM Tonight, joined the show to discuss this weekend’s slate of NFL games, including how he would bet the Patriots/Jets matchup on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
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00:00I got to tell you, Pat, there are four of us here who made picks this week,
00:06and we should have parlayed that son of a bitch because we nailed all four of our picks, my friend.
00:12So you're talking, you better step up your game there, Pat,
00:14because you're talking to some betting royalty on the other side of the phone.
00:18Yeah, I got a couple of sharks I'm dealing with this week. Let's go, boys.
00:23All right, Pat, let's start with the obvious one.
00:25We got the Jets coming into town.
00:29Listen, the hot take is that this is going to be a tough one for the Patriots,
00:33even though the spread, I believe, is seven points.
00:36I think the last I checked, it was seven, and I believe the over-under was four.
00:40Seven and a half now.
00:41Oh, it's moved. Okay, all right.
00:42So where's your head at this game?
00:45Yeah, I think the Jets' defense is actually really, really good.
00:49And look, Aaron Glenn has been a good play caller,
00:53but he's not a good head coach still because he doesn't know how to manage the clock.
00:57So I ultimately, I think the Patriots win this game.
01:00But, yeah, I just think, I think this is too many points.
01:03I think I got to roll with the Jets here.
01:04Now, again, as always, it depends on how the quarterback does
01:08with turning the football over or not turning the football over.
01:11So if the Patriots can speed up Geno Smith
01:13and the Patriots have been doing a good job with pressure rate the last couple of weeks,
01:17Geno throws two picks, then, yeah, this game can get out of hand,
01:20you know, just like it did last week.
01:22On the flip side, Drake May, I said, if he protects the football,
01:24I think the Raiders' defense is there to be had.
01:27I said I like the Patriots, and they ended up annihilating them.
01:29So it's kind of the opposite.
01:31I think if Geno Smith has one or fewer turnovers,
01:34the Jets' defense will do their thing,
01:36and they will play a tough ran of football.
01:39They'll slow down the Patriots, which is a one-dimensional run game right now.
01:42I just heard the report with Travion.
01:44So, yeah, you know, A.J. Brown,
01:46there's going to be a big question mark on what's going to happen with him this weekend.
01:49But even if he does somehow play first game back,
01:52I just think that the Jets' defense here is really underrated in this game.
01:56And I think more realities than not, they're able to keep this within a touchdown.
02:00But I do think the Patriots want it.
02:02All right, Pat, I'm tempted to take Carolina minus 3.5 in Philly against the backup quarterback.
02:07Why should I do that or not do that?
02:10Yeah, I mean, I think you should, right?
02:12I mean, look, every game this year, especially the primetime games,
02:15another one last night where you say to yourself on paper,
02:18how do the Broncos win this game?
02:20But I picked the Broncos because I thought Sam Donald could turn into a pumpkin,
02:24and he did.
02:25And that's, like, Sam Donald was terrible, and he still outplayed Bo Nix.
02:29I know.
02:30Dude, Bo Nix was embarrassing last night.
02:33And you know what?
02:33I was telling Ted, like, watching that game,
02:36it's like the first time I've really got to spend a chunk of time watching the Broncos this year.
02:41And I was, like, almost ashamed of myself because I was like,
02:44has Bo Nix just kind of been leading up to this?
02:46Has he, like, been just this bad?
02:48And I did a bunch of research, and I was like, oh, yeah, I guess in college
02:51they didn't think that he could throw it downfield either, but they still end up.
02:53But he won.
02:54He's a winner.
02:55But he's a winner.
02:55That's right.
02:56But the guy wins, apparently.
02:58That's right.
02:58Well, I mean, hey, look, you know, your guy Drake May,
03:01he was in a kind of similar boat a couple weeks ago.
03:03He played himself out of the slump.
03:04Can Bo Nix do that?
03:06That's how far the Broncos season will ultimately go.
03:09They still have a great defense, and they did that shutdown of the Seahawks
03:12without Patrick Tan and without Talanoa Hufunga.
03:14So my original point here is that, you know, I feel like so many games where you just,
03:19just, you know, your snap reaction is like, there's no way the Patriots cover or win this game, right?
03:24And if that's usually the case, then you usually just say, all right,
03:28it doesn't make any sense, so I'm going to take the Eagles.
03:30But that being said, I don't know how they're going to keep this game close.
03:36It's going to take Bryce Young playing terribly, and he hasn't played.
03:40He's played really, really good this year and most of last year, too.
03:43So he's ascended.
03:44So I can't believe, like, I would be saying this a year ago,
03:47but I trust Bryce Young to not make multiple mistakes.
03:52You know, last week I think the Eagles were able to keep it close against the Jags in London
03:56because their fans traveled well.
03:58They caused multiple delay of game penalties.
04:00These Jacksonville god-awful play calling from Leon Cohen, like the Panthers,
04:04they have a very simple offense.
04:06It's the RPO, and they trust Bryce Young to run it, and he runs it well.
04:10So, again, I think there's a certain floor he brings into this game.
04:13And then it's Tanner McKee, you know, who a lot of Eagles fans, like,
04:17thought he could be the guy last year, and then he played bad against the Commanders in Week 18.
04:20He got beat out by the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton, in preseason.
04:23Then Dalton throws one pass against the Bears, and they cut him.
04:26So, I don't think Tanner McKee's any good.
04:29Saquon may or may not play, but even then, the offensive line's been god-awful.
04:33So, again, if you think the Eagles cover, I think you also have to play the under
04:38because you're going to assume that their defense just balls out again like they did last week.
04:42But if you like the Panthers, again, you probably like the Panthers and the over.
04:47But, you know, just on the number itself, the 3.5,
04:49I just think the Eagles are really down and out right now.
04:53And last week, you can rah-rah yourself, hey, let's get on a plane, let's fly to London,
04:58and let's block out all the noise.
04:59They're back at home.
05:00They haven't played well at home this year.
05:03And so, yeah, I trust the Panthers here.
05:05It's a fishy number, but with the Eagles down to so many backups,
05:09this just feels like a game.
05:10Carolina off the bye as well.
05:12I trust Dave Canales as the head coach, and I trust the preparation.
05:15Pat, another intriguing game is the 1-4 Texans taking on the Jags at 4-1,
05:20again, over across the pond in London.
05:23I mean, you look at C.J. Stroud, you go, man, 1,400 yards, 280 yards per game,
05:28six touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 98 quarterback rating.
05:31I mean, the guy's playing really good.
05:33It's just that Texans' defense isn't what maybe we thought.
05:36But the Texans are a better team than what their record shows, right?
05:39And just your overall thoughts on how that game will play out.
05:43Yeah, I think they are.
05:45And I think I said this to you guys last week,
05:48I think the Texans can pull a 92 Chargers.
05:51I think they can make the playoffs despite the 0-4 start.
05:54I don't like them in this game, though, on Sunday.
05:56And the other thing I said to you guys last week,
05:58we talked about Jaguars-Eagles, and I said,
06:00this is not a spot that I like Jacksonville.
06:02Next week is the spot I like Jacksonville.
06:04You're going to get a way better number, and you do.
06:07It's 2 1⁄2.
06:08It's under a field goal.
06:08This is their second straight game.
06:10They've done this twice before.
06:12Three years ago, the second game in a row they played in London
06:14was a five-point dog against Josh Allen and the Bills.
06:17They beat them.
06:17They won the game outright.
06:19A year after that, 2024, they played your Patriots.
06:21It was the second game there.
06:22They were a six-point favorite.
06:23They won by 16.
06:25Their second game, they've been there all week.
06:27It's a massive travel situational advantage for them.
06:30Houston has to go there.
06:31No David Montgomery.
06:33They have struggled to run the football as is.
06:35Jacksonville, the No. 1 run defense, I mean, come on.
06:38Woody Marks just running into bodies and going backwards.
06:41So they're going to be so one-dimensional,
06:43and C.J. Stroud has played well.
06:44But when Jacksonville knows that they can stop the run game
06:47and turn Houston into a one-dimensional offense,
06:49I just don't see how the Texans are able to move the ball effectively.
06:53C.J. Stroud has played well.
06:54He's going to have to play the game of his life to win this one.
06:56So I like the Jags here.
06:57All right.
06:57What about the battle of the Patriots-Beatons, the Bills at Raiders?
07:01That should be it.
07:02That's a good game.
07:02That's a great game.
07:03The Bills right now favored by 4.5, at least from the numbers I'm seeing.
07:08And all I'm hearing, it's funny, after this past week
07:11when the Bills ended up pulling out a win,
07:14is just how much Bills fans are terrified of this defense
07:18and things just collapsing around them.
07:20What's your take on that game?
07:22Yeah.
07:23I mean, their defense is terrible.
07:25And, you know, Jim Leonard is supposed to be the guy
07:27that was supposed to turn that around,
07:28and I'm not saying it was going to happen overnight,
07:30but they really haven't had that many injuries.
07:31You know, Ed Oliver didn't play last week,
07:33but other than that, there's not, like, several guys on this defense
07:36that are missing.
07:37They just, they don't tackle well.
07:40They've stopped the run marginally better.
07:43But, I mean, you guys saw what the Patriots did,
07:45and they threw all over them.
07:46It's a secondary that under Sean McDermott, it was like,
07:49hey, cover two, keep everything in front.
07:51We're not going to give up the big chunk plays.
07:53That's gone out the window.
07:54They're giving up chunk play after chunk play
07:55after chunk play after chunk play.
07:56So, you know, again, I like the Raiders here,
07:59and this has gone up, by the way.
08:00This is at five and a half, so it's moving in Buffalo's favor.
08:03I hope it gets to six.
08:04You like the Raiders in the game.
08:07I do like the Raiders because, yeah,
08:10I think Buffalo's defense is one that can't be trusted.
08:13We had, I think, a similar profile game last week.
08:16Cardinals-Lions.
08:17An offense that's great, and a defense that's terrible.
08:21But Buffalo, you know, Buffalo's been winning.
08:23Detroit, they kind of have this uneasy feeling about them.
08:25They smacked the Cardinals' round last week.
08:26And now you've got a kind of similar game.
08:28You've got a high-powered offense with a subpar defense going on the road,
08:31and that's Buffalo, and they're nearly a touchdown favorite.
08:34But, you know, again, I think Kirk Cousins, he's played extremely well.
08:39And the turnover variance in this game is something that I'm willing to buy into.
08:43When the Raiders get turnovers, we saw how they started, 3-0,
08:46and they nearly beat the Chiefs.
08:47When they don't get the turnovers, you guys saw it last week,
08:50the Patriots annihilated them.
08:52So, obviously, this game's going to hinge on the turnover department.
08:54I think they'll be able to get one or two,
08:56whether it's James Cook putting the ball on the carpet again,
08:58or if it's Josh Allen trying to be a little bit too much Superman
09:02and forcing things.
09:03I mean, he's got five turnovers in the last three games.
09:05So, who the hell is to say that he can't turn it over again?
09:08I like the Raiders here.
09:09They've been playing frisky football all year.
09:11Their defense is a little bit better than it looks on paper.
09:13I like the Raiders.
09:14And also, too, the Raiders are the more desperate team.
09:17They've lost two in a row.
09:18And so, this game means, I think, a little bit more than the Bills could.
09:21Yeah, could be.
09:22Real quick.
09:23Yeah, absolutely.
09:24If I'm wrong and they do get blown out, honestly, it might be Fernando Mendoza's time.
09:28He might be the starting quarterback next week.
09:30I think that's how much the clock can dramatically accelerate here.
09:33If I'm totally wrong and the Raiders do get blown out and Kirk Cousins plays bad,
09:37it could be Fernando Mendoza's time next week.
09:39But I think Kirk will play well enough because this Buffalo defense has shown you week after week
09:43they can't stop anybody.
09:44Do you have any tricks, Pat, for the Caleb Williams situation so he's questionable?
09:48I'm assuming that game's not off the board.
09:50We're kind of interested in Chicago because they're the opponent on Thursday.
09:53But would you bet that game thinking he will play and take advantage of a lower line,
09:57or how does that go?
09:59Yeah, look, the books are pretty smart.
10:02So, I think they think he's going to play.
10:06And I think even though he's questionable and he spoke to the media and he's all upset
10:11because everybody was making fun of him, which I, honestly, I defended Caleb Williams.
10:16Look, I mean, it was obviously, it's not a grade three hamstring care.
10:19He would have been out multiple months.
10:20But it probably wasn't a grade one.
10:22It was probably a grade two hamstring strain.
10:23It was a grade two.
10:24But if people are crying, you know, making fun of him, they go, oh, what a baby.
10:28Like, even if he only had to miss a week, who cares?
10:31The guy's an emotional competitor.
10:33He wants, all he wants to do is win.
10:34So, anyway, back to the point at hand.
10:38I'm pretty confident Caleb's going to play.
10:41So, I wouldn't touch the Bears because that number's already caked in.
10:45If you think, and I don't advise doing this, but unless you have insider information.
10:51If you do, then you're probably not listening anyway.
10:55If you think Caleb Williams somehow does not play, then you wait.
11:00Then you wait.
11:00Because if he doesn't end up playing, the Bears right now, they're a one-and-a-half-point favorite or
11:04a one-point favorite.
11:05They're going to end up going probably to a three-point underdog, which would be pretty standard.
11:09Backup quarterback on the road.
11:10Atlanta's still playing well.
11:11Pennix is going to play.
11:12But if you think Caleb Williams is going to play, I don't think there's any point in either betting it
11:17now or waiting until Sunday.
11:18I don't think you're going to get a better number.
11:20I think the sportsbooks are assuming he's going to play.
11:23And so, and I think he's going to play.
11:25You know, and I actually like Chicago in this game.
11:27I do think it's a toss-up.
11:28I slightly lean Chicago just because I think their offense is miles better with Caleb under center.
11:34And I think coming off the blowout loss to the Packers, you know, I mean, it might sound cliche, but
11:40you think Ben Johnson took that loss lying down?
11:43Like, he's probably schemed up 15,000 different trick plays to beat Atlanta this week.
11:48So, I like the Bears.
11:49I think Caleb's going to play.
11:50I'm guessing, Pat, one of your favorite times of the year is in March, when March Madness happens.
11:54And it feels like the college football playoff format is going to be similar to March Madness.
12:00The 24 teams are going to be in the playoffs next year.
12:04From a betting standpoint, what does that mean for you guys?
12:08Oh, I hate it.
12:09I think it absolutely effing sucks.
12:11I think it sucks.
12:12I think it's, you know, we're Mickey Mousing all of sports now, college sports, professional sports.
12:18Let's let everybody in.
12:19You know, and why stop at 24?
12:21Let's go to 32.
12:23Totally.
12:23And there's only one group of 16 that's going to get in.
12:25Let's not, let's make it eight.
12:26And let's make it the first eight.
12:28You know, let's just basically copy March Madness.
12:31And why don't, you know, the college football regular season needs to mean something.
12:34It means absolutely nothing now.
12:36It's a joke.
12:37It's an absolute joke of a product what they've turned it into.
12:40So, yeah, I mean, I don't know.
12:41I mean, I'm still obviously going to watch.
12:42I'm going to talk about it on my show.
12:44But you got a great answer.
12:45But you have to admit, if a team that, because a team that has four losses could technically win the
12:52national championship.
12:53And that's a joke.
12:54Cinderella, let's go.
12:55Which is awesome.
12:56Because heads will explode everywhere.
12:58And then everyone will say, why did we do this to ourselves?
13:01And it's because you should have known that chaos could indeed reign if you let in the 25th or the
13:0724th best team and give them a shot to win the entire thing.
13:10Explain to them, Pat.
13:11Tell them.
13:12No, no, no.
13:12Ted, I know it's insane.
13:14And I know it's not right.
13:15But it would be hysterical if it happened.
13:18Yeah.
13:19It would.
13:19It would.
13:20And forget about four loss teams.
13:21We're going to have a five loss SEC team that loses to five ranked teams.
13:27And there's going to be an argument that they should be in over, like, a Big Ten team that's nine
13:30and three.
13:30Yep.
13:31There's no question.
13:31There's no question.
13:32All right.
13:32Well, listen.
13:34Great stuff.
13:35And hopefully, Pat, we will be able to see a nice Patriots win here.
13:39Although you believe that it will be within the seven points that the Jets are getting.
13:43I don't care.
13:44I just want to win.
13:45I just...
13:46Just win, baby.
13:46Just win, baby, as they say.
13:47Pat Boyle, BetMGM Tonight.
13:50Appreciate you coming on with us, man.
13:51Thank you, Pat.
13:52Appreciate it.
13:53As always, guys.
13:53Enjoy your weekend.