00:00Paul, we've been talking a lot about our super El Nino, so to speak.
00:04Tell me about how that's actually going to influence our winter weather in the U.S. this year.
00:08Well, we're expecting it to be one of the strongest El Ninos we've seen in many, many years.
00:12And that means big storms, wetter systems that we'll be watching for the southwest and the western U.S.
00:18and also the southeast that can lead to flooding.
00:20Flooding could be the major issue going forward in these places.
00:24With all the moisture staying in the south, the northern areas,
00:26they may miss out on some of the bigger systems, seeing less precipitation, less snowfall,
00:31and actually warmer than average temperatures.
00:33Is there anything about our forecast that differs from that kind of standard El Nino pattern?
00:38There's going to be a few things that probably show up.
00:41I could see even a storm track that takes place mid to late winter
00:44that brings snow to parts of the central plains and high plains during the course of that time of the
00:51year.
00:51And then also we have to watch that there could be some storms that come up
00:54through the mid-Atlantic and northeast to produce snow, even in El Nino seasons.
00:59Who are we forecasting to see less than normal snow and who could see more?
01:03I think across places like Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis,
01:07they could end up seeing below average snowfall this coming season.
01:10Even the east coast cities, timing is a big factor with cold and precipitation.
01:15It may be missing the cold ingredient many times, but however, it only takes one.
01:21And some of our history has shown late January and February, you could have one big system to watch in
01:26the east.
01:26Talk to me a little bit more about temperatures overall.
01:29Where are we expecting warmer, on par with historical average, or colder?
01:34You know, that may be the biggest story is the record, not cold,
01:38but record warm days that we could see across parts of the Midwest,
01:43the Great Lakes and the Northeast, especially in December.
01:46Now let's talk about severe weather because, yeah, winter isn't severe weather season,
01:50but it can happen any time of year.
01:52What do you have in your forecast about that?
01:53Yeah, it can happen at any time of the year.
01:55We can see anywhere from Texas to the southeast to the mid-Atlantic
01:59still the risk for severe weather, even during the course of the winter season.
02:04All right.
02:05Lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok, thanks for joining us.
02:08Thank you, Anna.
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