Mars's moon Phobos orbits only about 6,000 km above the planet and moves inward by roughly 2 m each century. Tidal forces may be opening long grooves across the small moon. NASA's published estimate suggests possible breakup in 30–50 million years, but other models differ, and a ring is only one possible outcome—not a settled prediction.
This is a long-term model, not a near-future event. Illustrations of a ring show a possible scenario. Research checked September 23, 2026.
Sources: NASA Phobos: https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/mars-moon-phobos-is-slowly-falling-apart/ · Black & Mittal (2015): https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2583 · Hesselbrock & Minton (2017): https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2916
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