- 46 minutes ago
During an address at the United Nations General Assembly, US President Donald Trump issued sharp warnings against Iran, calling it the primary sponsor of terror and presenting a choice between a post-midterm deal or complete annihilation. Trump also called for global economic isolation of Tehran and advocated renaming artificial intelligence to super intelligence in official records. Evaluating the global fallout on News Track, energy expert Dr Anas Alhaj explained that crude supplies remain sufficient while refinery bottlenecks have triggered a severe international diesel and petroleum product crunch. He noted that India has managed its crude reserves effectively through discounted Russian supplies despite tariff threats. Former Indian Ambassador to the United States Meera Shankar highlighted that Trump's remarks targeted domestic US audiences, noting that India must navigate complex regional dynamics by balancing ties with Iran, Gulf nations, Israel, and the United States while accelerating its transition towards non-fossil fuel energy.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shaquille.
00:02Global leaders have gathered in New York City for the annual United Nations General Assembly,
00:09that is the UNGA.
00:11And addressing the UNGA, US President General Trump spoke sharply about Iran,
00:17calling it the biggest sponsor of terror.
00:19He said a deal with Tehran could be possible after the midterms,
00:22but warned that his other option was to annihilate the Islamic Republic.
00:30Trump also urged countries to join the US in economically pressurizing Iran.
00:36Turning to Ukraine, Donald Trump said Washington was working with both Moscow and Kiev.
00:43On Cuba, he called it a failed state and said that freedom will be coming to the nation soon.
00:49He also repeated his claim that he has stopped eight wars.
00:53And on AI, that is the artificial intelligence, Donald Trump said,
00:57US government documents would use the term superintelligence instead of artificial intelligence from now on.
01:05While again dismissing warnings about AI as a hoax, he called the technology as amazing.
01:10His remarks on Iran and Cuba also prompted walkouts by their delegations at the UNGA.
01:17To decode Donald Trump's speech, I'll be joined by former Ambassador of India to the United States,
01:24Meera Shankar, and energy security expert, Dr. Anas Alhaj.
01:29But first, let's take a look at what Donald Trump said.
01:36There is no better example of a danger that was allowed to gather strength at the world's peril
01:42than the number one sponsor of terror, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
01:50For 51 years, the fanatical Iranian regime has ruled by bloodshed and mass murder, spreading death and carnage
02:00and chaos across the entire Middle East and beyond.
02:05They were the bully of the Middle East, but they are the bully no more.
02:08From the first day I entered the political arena, I've been unwavering.
02:13I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
02:17Upon taking office last year, I immediately opened negotiations with Iran and offered them
02:23full economic cooperation in exchange for ending their nuclear program and support for terror.
02:30But they refused.
02:32They absolutely refused.
02:33That was a big mistake.
02:39I call on all nations to join us in enforcing the complete economic isolation of Iran
02:45until they stop their attacks on commercial shipping, relinquish their nuclear ambitions,
02:51and cease their support of terror.
02:55The terrorist regime is behaving badly, not because they are strong and confident,
03:02but because they are weak and desperate.
03:06If we stand united, we will soon see a world free of the last 51-year menace of Iranian terror,
03:14and oil prices will come plummeting down even lower than they were at the start of the conflict.
03:20And they were very low.
03:22In the United States, they were really low.
03:29But I have a big decision to make.
03:32Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever
03:41was before,
03:42maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world?
03:47Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly,
03:52never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?
03:58Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival
04:02and no hope of future greatness or generations?
04:06But I believe we'll make a deal right after the election,
04:11because it doesn't make sense for them not to.
04:14They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.
04:18What they don't realize is that I'm not running.
04:21I did that already and won in a landslide.
04:25We won in a giant landslide.
04:27And I'll be here for two and a half years.
04:30The Republican Party is running, and I'll be helping them.
04:34But I am not running.
04:35I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran.
04:44It doesn't even enter my mind.
04:47The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
04:57The United States also totally rejects any attempt to construct a globalist scheme to control
05:03for the artificial intelligence, being spoken of so much now,
05:09here and after officially called superintelligence, changing the name,
05:14and that the use of the word artificial makes intelligence fake.
05:19It makes it sound fake, and it is not fake.
05:21It's actually amazing, but we have to be careful.
05:26Superintelligence, every major new technology brings challenges,
05:31and superintelligence is no exception.
05:34Yet the very same people who said we'll all be dead in 12 years because of global warming,
05:40a name since reborn to climate change because the planet was cooling, not warming,
05:45and nobody was dead.
05:47These are the same people that are now saying that AI is going to kill us all,
05:51that robots are going to attack us, and that everything is going to be a total disaster.
05:56The same group of people.
05:57Whoever wins AI, you have to remember this, and now I say whoever wins SI,
06:04whoever wins superintelligent, wins.
06:08That's the group that wins, and we're leading now over China by a lot and everyone else,
06:14and we're going to keep it that way.
06:16We're going to keep it very, very straight and very strong.
06:21I'm not going to stifle growth of something that will be bigger than the Industrial Revolution.
06:26Many say bigger than the Industrial Revolution or the Internet itself.
06:31And we will be very careful, and that's why we have a Department of Justice,
06:35and we've already used it having to do with this very subject, and used it very powerfully.
06:41And let me go straight to Dallas from where Dr. Anas Alhaji,
06:45who is a world-renowned energy markets expert, is joining us.
06:50Dr. Alhaji, appreciate your time here on India Today.
06:53U.S. President Donald Trump told the United Nations more oil is flowing through Hormuz
06:59than at any point in this war, and that the U.S. Navy has escorted a billion barrels out
07:07from the tanker and the satellite data you watch.
07:11Is the strait actually opened, or is the market still pricing a blockade that never fully lifted?
07:23The issue here is how much is going through the Hormuz trade, and is it crude?
07:30Is it petroleum products?
07:32It is natural gas liquids, et cetera.
07:35We don't have that information.
07:36They did not provide any of that.
07:38But whatever we heard before, it seems like whatever happened in one night,
07:45they are extrapolating that to the rest of the week or to the rest of the month.
07:48And it is very clear sometimes they are double counting.
07:52So there is some exaggeration on those numbers.
07:56This is a U.S. president who has delivered open threat from the world stage
08:02when he says that he could unhighlight Iran.
08:09Iran, what happens next in the oil market if that is not just rhetoric?
08:19Well, this has been going on for a very long time.
08:21The market is going to discount all of that.
08:23The whole issue here is what's going to happen really on the ground
08:27and what kind of meetings are going to take place in the coming two days
08:31with who are the leaders who are going to meet Trump
08:36and what negotiations are going to take place.
08:39Otherwise, I mean, Trump is repeating what he's been saying for a long time.
08:42So I don't think the market is going to react to that.
08:45Okay.
08:46So, Dr. Elahi, do you look at what has been said repeatedly
08:51with regards to economic isolation of Iran?
08:55If that actually happens, Iranian barrels, Asian refining margins
08:59or diesels and fertilizer prices, particularly in the context of India,
09:03how do you think it will all change?
09:08Generally speaking, India does not import any oil from Iran.
09:12India did import some NGLs or LPG from Iran,
09:17but that can be substituted from other places.
09:19This is not a big deal.
09:20So the issue here is what's going to happen to Iranian oil.
09:25Iranian oil is sold to China.
09:27China basically have the capability to replace Iranian oil.
09:31If it's not buying it from somewhere else, it is using their inventories.
09:36And China has massive inventories.
09:39It can use it, and it will take like more than a year of replacement.
09:44So they have a lot of it.
09:46And we have not seen that much Iranian oil going through the Hormel Strait anyway.
09:51So the world is already dealing with it anyway.
09:55The issue here is when we look at the oil market, we do have a crisis.
10:02But where the crisis is?
10:03The crisis is not in crude.
10:05We do have plenty of crude right now.
10:07The crisis is in petroleum products.
10:10Yes.
10:10The crisis is in diesel.
10:12That's where the crisis is.
10:14So whatever happened in the United Nations and whatever negotiations, whatever deals are
10:20going to be made, that's going to affect the future and probably even the distant future.
10:24Not now.
10:25We have a diesel crisis, and there is no solution for that diesel crisis, whether in the United
10:30States or anywhere in the world.
10:31So if there is no solution in sight and the uncertainty is continuing, how do you look at
10:39the risk here if the Navy is at the bottom of the sea and the oil is flowing, as Donald
10:44Trump is claiming?
10:46Why are diesel prices still behaving as if the Strait can shut tomorrow?
10:55There are several reasons for that.
10:57The first reason is we lost a massive amount of diesel from the Gulf itself.
11:02We have several refineries there.
11:04They are not able until now to go back to full capacity.
11:07And on the other side, we ended up with a situation where many countries panicked and
11:13they restricted exports.
11:14India did that at the beginning of the crisis, South Korea, China, et cetera.
11:20And then we have ships, basically, or tankers carrying diesel that's been changing direction
11:26based on who is buying them.
11:27So we have more diesel and water than reaching their destinations.
11:32And then whatever left in the world in terms of countries allowing exports, the refineries
11:38are maxed out.
11:39Whether you look at the United States or India, they maxed out.
11:41And they are making a lot of money right now because the cracks from diesel, the margins
11:47they make from diesel is higher than the price of oil itself.
11:51So they are making a lot of money out of it.
11:53But that's not enough.
11:55So even if you have accrued, you cannot make diesel out of it because refineries are maxed
12:01out.
12:01And that is a big problem.
12:03We lost several refineries in the United States and Europe.
12:06So that is part of the problem.
12:08China has a serious problem because they mandate or they control domestic prices.
12:14So Chinese refiners are losing money and they cannot export much because the government imposes
12:20quota on them.
12:21So from where the diesel is going to come, all the available refinery in the world basically
12:25are maxed out.
12:26You have called this the worst energy shock since World War II.
12:31And you have said that India's real problem is not just crude, but diesel, LPG and fertilizer,
12:38something that we have seen.
12:39After the speech of the U.S. president, does that product's crunch ease or does isolate Iran,
12:48make the middle, you know, the shortage worse?
12:57Trump's speech basically is completely irrelevant to this.
13:00Trump's speech basically is just the rhetoric he's been saying for a very long time.
13:03So it has no impact.
13:05The earlier talk about this is the largest energy crisis since World War II and the problems
13:11that India will have, et cetera, these are the same.
13:16Nothing changed.
13:18We still have problems with fertilizers.
13:20We still have problems with energy supplies.
13:23We still have problems with other materials, including helium, methanol, aluminum, et cetera.
13:30All of these issues basically still exist.
13:32We have serious problem with LPG.
13:34I mean, India, India problem is very unique when it comes to LPG.
13:38And the reason why, because India, with the help of the United Nations and the IMF,
13:46they changed over time, over years, to clean cooking.
13:50And clean cooking, by their standards, basically, is to move to propane or LPG.
13:56And that became a problem right now after they shifted to it,
14:00because that type of LPG is mostly produced by Saudi Arabia on the eastern coast.
14:05And that was shut down.
14:08So the replacement from Russia and the United States is not really a replacement,
14:13because the type of LPG that is imported from those countries
14:16is different from the needed LPG that used to come from Saudi Arabia.
14:20Then who fills that gap for India, according to you?
14:28Well, India, in general, India done an incredible job in doing whatever it can in the light of crisis.
14:40So if you compare, for example, this to Japan, we ended up with the following situation.
14:46Both countries basically drew from their inventories and reserves.
14:51Both of them reduced imports.
14:53But India quickly was able to restore imports and replenish inventories.
15:00India's inventories right now are the highest since COVID.
15:04Japan was not able to do that.
15:06Japan inventories basically remain very low.
15:09They use their strategic petroleum reserves, and their imports have not recovered.
15:13So what is the difference between the two countries in this case?
15:17The currency of both countries basically went down, and the yen basically collapsed.
15:22The rupee went down.
15:23So the similarities are many.
15:26But why India was able to do that and Japan was not able to do that?
15:30Well, one of the reasons why, because India imported the cheap Russian oil, the discounted oil.
15:37Japan, because it is part of the G7, they have an embargo on Russian oil.
15:43So India basically was able to manage.
15:46Japan was not able to manage.
15:48And so the policy here and the foreign policy basically played a big role.
15:53But Dr. Alaji, of course, India has faced repeated threats and punitive tariffs as well.
15:59That has also gone up, you know, with the announcement which has happened recently.
16:03Given the kind of threats that India has faced, but India remained determined,
16:08the Indian government certainly said that it is prioritizing its own people
16:12rather than succumbing under the U.S. pressure.
16:18This is, in fact, it's all the above.
16:21There are many reasons here.
16:22You know that the United States imposed this new or adopted a new law
16:27that allows the president of the United States to impose up to 100% tariffs
16:33on any country that imports their Russian crude.
16:36But if you look at the law, the new law that President Trump signed last week,
16:42it does not change anything on the ground because it just emphasized
16:47what Trump has been saying and doing for a while.
16:51And this law basically puts everything in Trump's hand.
16:55So it's up to Trump.
16:56And that was the case before and after.
16:58So that does not change anything at all.
17:01So this new law, it helps Trump in court if he was challenged in court.
17:08But that's it.
17:09It does not give him any additional powers to impose anything on India or anything else.
17:14He had the power to do it before, and he still have the same power today.
17:18So this is not a big deal.
17:20Nothing changes from the past.
17:23The issue here is if you look at the details of this law,
17:27you realize that the Indian media and other media around the world
17:33basically exaggerated the impact.
17:35And there was some panic on the part of some because of it.
17:38Here is why.
17:39First of all, if you look at the details,
17:41the law said there is a 180-day grace period,
17:46which means that we are talking about six months.
17:48So any country in the world who is importing Russian oil,
17:51they have six months to reduce or eliminate their imports from Russia.
17:56The same law basically says, well, if countries try to reduce their imports
18:03and show good intentions, that's good enough.
18:05But that's exactly what Trump was saying all along, even before the law.
18:11So nothing changes in this case any way you look at it.
18:14And then you look at further details.
18:15We've seen India doing this before.
18:18India refiners have experience with that.
18:20They can reduce their imports from Russia and show good intentions.
18:24And based on our estimates right now,
18:27India is importing about 2.3 million barrels a day.
18:31They can reduce that to 1.4, 1.5.
18:34So we're talking about 700,000 to 800,000 barrels that need to be replaced.
18:39This can be replaced easily right now.
18:41Again, the problem in the oil market is not crude.
18:44The problem is products.
18:45So I don't think there is any problem for India refiners, even if Trump decides to threaten India.
18:53Dr. Anas Alaji, always a pleasure listening to you and your perspective on the issue of energy.
19:00So thank you so much for joining us and sharing your thoughts.
19:03Joining me now is Ambassador Meera Shankar.
19:05She is former Indian ambassador to the United States.
19:08Ambassador Shankar, Donald Trump has called Iran the world's biggest sponsor of terror.
19:15Then he has asked the UN whether he should make a deal or annihilate the Islamic Republic.
19:21That's a life threat from a sitting US president, not rhetoric.
19:25What happens next, ma'am?
19:29We really don't know what will happen next, because President Trump, as always, keeps open the door to negotiations, but
19:39under coercive pressure.
19:42And this time he's ramped up the pressure by saying that the choice is either to have a deal or
19:49face annihilation.
19:51So that's a very strong threat.
19:55But then he himself says, I think, that we have a deal after the elections, which means that till the
20:05elections, at least there's no chance of a deal.
20:08The November midterm elections in the US.
20:12Ambassador, President Trump warns Iran economically isolated until it drops its nuclear programs and stops targeting shipping.
20:20India runs its own energy policy, independent of Washington's line.
20:25What does that isolation push mean for India's calculations on the Strait of Hormuz and its energy security?
20:34Look, it puts India in a very difficult spot because so much of our oil imports have come from the
20:43Gulf and that is disrupted because the Houthis have also now moved downwards adjacent to the Red Sea coast.
20:56So there's the possibility that the Babal Mandib Strait could also get choked.
21:03And that means that Saudi oil, which was using Red Sea ports, may not be able to get out.
21:11As it is, the price of oil is rising.
21:14So for India, I think we have to make our own choices in terms of diversification of energy sources.
21:25We are buying from Russia.
21:27We are buying from Venezuela.
21:28We bought from Nigeria.
21:31There's we buy from the US.
21:34So we are diversifying our sources of energy.
21:38But at the same time, I would say it's a wake-up call that we accelerate the push towards a
21:46non-fossil fuel economy.
21:49You know, if transportation, electrification can happen more quickly,
21:55if renewable energy based on solar and wind and battery storage can happen more quickly,
22:02then the amount of energy you need to import will come down and your energy security will increase manyfold.
22:11And while I do see some effort at diversification of energy sources of fossil fuel,
22:19I'm afraid I don't see any major push to accelerate a non-fossil fuel economy.
22:27You know, tell me, ma'am, as a former diplomat,
22:30you would have heard, seen multiple US presidents and, you know, heads of state at the UNGA.
22:38How do you look at US president's speech today?
22:40Was it more meant for domestic audience?
22:45Well, he's this time kept more to his talking points.
22:49And the speech has been made with an eye to his domestic audience because he first talks about his own
22:58success in the US economy,
23:01in raising employment, in bringing down poverty and the booming stock market.
23:09And never before has the US economy been so good.
23:16And then he talks about his success in securing the border and controlling immigration.
23:23He talks about artificial intelligence and super intelligence, as he calls it,
23:29because artificial sounds artificial, and that this means that the US will be ahead in future as well.
23:40And then he talks about Iran and, you know, the Council of Peace on Gaza.
23:49And so much of his speech initially was really aimed at his domestic audience.
23:57On Iran, as we discussed earlier, he says the choice is either that Iran agrees to a deal
24:04and gives up its nuclear weapons or he will annihilate Iran or he will annihilate Iran.
24:11And then on Ukraine, he says that a deal is nearer than anybody thinks, you know, that it could be
24:20around the corner.
24:21Whereas actually conflict or exchanges in terms of drone attacks are intensifying between Russia and Ukraine at the moment.
24:38So overall, this time he stuck to his talking points more or less with an eye on his domestic audience.
24:46Last year, if you recall, he had gone off his talking points and he had talked about, it was a
24:56rambling speech.
24:57He had said that he has destroyed Iran's nuclear program.
25:02That was in his last year's speech, its nuclear weapons.
25:08And that he also had talked so much about Europe, how it was being overrun by illegal aliens and that
25:20Europe would lose its own culture and soul, etc.
25:27So he had just completely gone rambling off the points which had been given to him.
25:33This year, he stuck more closely to the text.
25:37All right, ma'am, let me ask my last question.
25:40India continues to engage Tehran and sit in bricks as any sovereign nation charting its own course would.
25:47Does Donald Trump's speech change the cost of that course?
25:53Well, I think India will make its own calculations where its balance of interest lies.
25:59Certainly, India has equities in the Gulf with all the Gulf countries and with Iran, both in terms of energy,
26:10in terms of Iran's strategic location on the Straits of Hormuz.
26:17And it's being vehicle for India to connect to Central Asia and also to have the North-South Corridor with
26:27Russia.
26:27So connectivity, energy, geopolitical location, all favor Iran, cultural links of the Shias in India and the Shias in Iran.
26:37And then in the other Gulf countries too, India has energy interests, it has economic interests, it has defense ties
26:48with countries like UAE, and there's the huge diaspora in the rest of the Gulf, which sends remittances to India.
26:57So India has interests in all the countries in the region.
27:02And of course, Israel has been a strategic partner for India.
27:06So we would need to carefully balance our interests there and also look at the stakes that we have in
27:19the relationship with the U.S.
27:21and then craft our course, keeping in mind that we take our own decisions based on our sense of our
27:30interests.
27:31All right, Ambassador Meera Shankar, pleasure speaking to you, ma'am.
27:34Thank you for joining us and sharing your thoughts.
27:37We are putting out the interviews on our website and also on the YouTube channel.
27:41That's all from me. Thanks so much for watching.
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