00:02Hello, it is Sunday the 20th of September and this is your weather forecast for the week ahead.
00:07As you can see, looking at our weak potential rainfall totals, there is a fair bit of rain on
00:12the way for southern WA as a low pressure system moves into the region towards the middle to end
00:17of the week. This is accompanied with some strong lightning and thunderstorm risks. There's also a
00:22little bit of rain on the way for the eastern coast with an onshore breeze and a trough coming
00:26through. So let's have a look. All right, starting off with the daily rainfall, we have a front moving
00:31through the southeast, which is cooling off some of those warm temperatures that have been
00:34experienced. But then we have this high coming through afterwards. By Monday, that high starts
00:39to move over into the southeast. And on Tuesday, we see the first of the rain signature patterns
00:44that we're going to see. So this east coast onshore flow and then this west coast, this is the light
00:48showers of the day where it starts to really pick up on Wednesday. So that Tuesday is likely Tuesday
00:53night, not the Tuesday day, because Wednesday it starts to intensify. We're seeing here about
00:58five to ten mils. On Thursday, we have the same sort of location for that system. And by Friday,
01:05it intensifies again. And then I think by Saturday, you can really start to see this low starting to
01:09cut off. And then by Sunday, it actually cuts off into a mid-latitude cyclone, which is just
01:16the atmospheric term for it. It's just a low pressure system as well. As you can see, though,
01:20the east coast and the north stays relatively dry and calm throughout that sort of series.
01:25Let's have a look at the current weather warnings this week for Australia. So we currently have
01:32some warnings down in the south here as we have those fronts moving through. So we've got marine
01:37wind warnings. This is a bushwalkers warning down in Tasmania. And then on Monday, this sort of travels
01:44up towards Sydney as that front starts to move through into the Tasman. Moving through for
01:50Tuesday, we'll start to look at the bushfire risk for the country. We can see that central Queensland
01:54has high bushfire risk and that continues into Wednesday as well. And there's some parts in WA.
01:59Bushfire risk is likely to be intensified in WA as those thunder and lightning storms move in to WA
02:06from about Thursday onwards. All righties. That is it for this week. For the national weather forecast,
02:13we'll have a look into some seasonal bits in a moment. Beautiful. So I thought we'd do a very brief
02:19seasonal forecast looking at the chance of exceeding maximum temperatures, because when we first looked
02:23at the spring forecast, there was a very, very, very high likelihood that this top quintile,
02:29so the sort of top 20% of temperatures that we see that we're going to
02:34see them, like the chance of seeing them was very high. And we've definitely already seen that in
02:37spring. It's been a very warm start to spring. So this is the first month. This is looking at
02:41October. We can see that those areas that are quite high likelihood in reaching these quintile
02:46temperatures are more concentrated down here in the southeast and in the southwest. In fact,
02:51this actually is a signature that looks very, very similar to this week, actually. Yeah, this is
02:58yesterday, Saturday's maximum temperature anomaly. And you can see the warm temperatures are sort of
03:03concentrated down here in the southeast, not so much in the southwest because the front's moving
03:07through. But they're colder up the top here. And if we have a look here, very similar, you know,
03:15a low chance of reaching those really high maximum temperatures in the north, but quite high in the
03:20south. So this is October. Then we'll have a look here, first three months, so October to December,
03:24very, very similar signature there. And then I thought we'd look at the summer season. So
03:29November through to January. And what's interesting here is that the likelihood has reduced, but it's
03:36the extent has definitely expanded. So the current seasonal forecast is that it will be warm. We'll be
03:41seeing those high temperatures and especially in those southeast, southwest corners, they're quite
03:46likely to be coming in. Just quickly, we'll look at the minimum temperature bottom quintile. So how likely
03:52are we to see the coldest 20% of temperatures? Very unlikely. The first three months, also very
04:01unlikely. So there you go. Just another confirmation that it is looking like it's going to be a very
04:05hot, yeah, a hot warm season coming up ahead. Okay, beautiful. That's it for this week's forecast
04:12and seasonal update. Do be safe. Have a great week. And we'll see you next time. Bye.
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