00:00Samuel Romani is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank,
00:04and he's also CEO of Pangaea Geopolitical Risk.
00:07Welcome back, Samuel.
00:09So, having just returned yourself from Saudi Arabia,
00:12what do you understand the security situation there is at present?
00:16Well, the possibility that there were strikes in Riyadh was not unheard of
00:20because the Houthis had targeted Riyadh,
00:22including making attempts with Burkhan missiles
00:24against King Khalid International Airport back in 2017 and 2018.
00:28The predominant locus of attacks was really in the south,
00:33so Jizan and regions around it.
00:35Obviously, the Saudis were rattled by the attack on Mecca,
00:38which the Houthis and the Iranians tried to walk back,
00:41but it was pretty clear that this situation is escalating,
00:45but the security of the capital being breached is a new development in this round of attacks.
00:51Okay, and to expand on that, you say it's not unheard of,
00:53but really how unusual is it to have attacks like this in Riyadh,
00:57and what really does it reveal about how much this crisis now is escalating with the Houthis?
01:02Well, I mean, definitely it's something that will cause a psychological scar.
01:06I mean, the daily life of Riyadh, in terms of the traffic congestion,
01:10the shops and offices will remain as it was.
01:14This is not like what we saw in some of the Gulf countries during the February and March period.
01:18It's a one-off attack, but it does show and does add some credibility to the Houthi argument
01:25that we will strike back if the Saudis attack us.
01:28The Houthis are claiming that the Saudis have launched 300 strikes against their targets in Yemen,
01:32and they also accused the Saudis of attacking Sanaa just hours before attempting an attack on Sanaa,
01:38of a significant variety, just hours before this.
01:41So it's pretty clear that this tit-for-tat dynamic will continue.
01:45Indeed. And where do you see this going?
01:46And will regional partners like Pakistan now be deal-bound to intervene after signing this recent security pact?
01:54Well, basically what it means is that there is also a massive escalation of the conflict inside Yemen.
01:59This is not just a Saudi-Houthi conflict.
02:01This is also between the Houthis and the Saudi-aligned Yemeni government and its affiliates.
02:07We've seen 100,000 people displaced in a matter of weeks, getting very limited media coverage.
02:12Any truce that was signed in 2022 is effectively gone,
02:15and we're looking at much more a return to the baseline of the escalatory environment that we saw between 2015
02:23and 2022.
02:24Whether the Saudi airstrikes are as frequent as it was then is not so clear,
02:27but Yemen now is in a state of renewed civil war.
02:30The Babamandeb has been effectively put under immense pressure from the Houthis.
02:36Pakistan is basically treaty-bound to do something to help Saudi Arabia.
02:40They've said that they will defend Saudi Arabia to any extent possible, including physical defense.
02:45They have thousands of trainers and troops and aircraft and air defense systems inside the kingdom ready for action if
02:50needed.
02:51But the big problem is will they take that very next step?
02:54In 2015, Pakistan drew a line in the sand.
02:57They didn't intervene militarily.
02:58And Pakistan also is a mediator with Iran.
03:00So my guess is that they will help Saudi Arabia in more indirect means like training and equipment assistance or
03:06technology transfers back and forth,
03:08but they won't necessarily intervene frontally with Pakistani soldiers losing their lives or flying jets over Yemeni targets.
03:16And Samuel, finally, how much does this feed into the wider Middle East conflict and Iran?
03:22Well, I mean, I think that the Middle East remains a protracted state of neither war nor peace.
03:27And it's a pretty fragile state of affairs over there.
03:33Obviously, the Houthis putting pressure on the Bab al-Mandab combined with the ongoing Iranian blockaded state of Hormuz does
03:40increase the pressure from the Gulf countries on the United States to pursue a deal,
03:46and quite possibly from countries that have relationships with Israel, like the UAE, to Israel to push for a deal.
03:52But the reality is we've made some way away from this.
03:55There's a conflict that's simmering in Lebanon, escalating a civil war in Yemen.
03:58And the biggest thing, as this war continues, is that Gulf countries and Arab partners who have trusted the U
04:05.S. with their security will be looking more at regional security arrangements or alternative partnerships.
04:11This is probably more likely than any resolution of the war in the near term.
04:15Samuel, as ever, really appreciate your expertise on this.
04:18Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk.
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