00:00Jamie Shea, the senior fellow at the Friends of Europe think tank and former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General.
00:07Jamie, welcome back. Good to see you. How much room for negotiation is there, if any, in these talks?
00:15Good to see you too, Jamie. Well, Winston Churchill famously said that jaw-jaw is better than war-war,
00:21and therefore, of course, it's good that the Russians and Ukrainians, under the aegis of the Americans,
00:28can get around the table again. Both of them obviously have an interest in agreeing to talks,
00:33because they both need to please President Trump. Ukraine, as we know, depends on the United States
00:39for the Starlink, the intelligence, the Patriot air defense missiles, and a lot of other things to stay in the
00:45fight.
00:46So, obviously, it's not good if Zelensky has a bad relationship with Trump and that American assistance is cut off.
00:52But President Putin also needs to please President Trump, because he sees the prospect with the diesel deal
00:58to get some of the sanctions against Russia lifted, to pump some billions of dollars into the Russian economy,
01:05which will help, of course, President Putin to keep the war going.
01:09But apart from pleasing the U.S. President and staying on the side of the White House,
01:14it's not clear what the talk can actually achieve in substance.
01:17So, Putin clearly sees the winter as a good opportunity for him to exert more pressure on Kiev,
01:24particularly the strikes on the energy grid causing misery for the population.
01:29So, the Russians are not likely to compromise until winter is over.
01:34And, of course, for the Ukrainians, what Russia wants hasn't really changed
01:38in terms of having to give up more territory in the east, in the Donbass,
01:43which Russia so far has not conquered.
01:46So, whether the talks will simply be an exercise in keeping the White House on side
01:51or really will lead to a breakthrough in the war, which will, you know, come towards some durable ceasefire,
01:57I think, frankly, Jamie, the jury is going to be out on that one for a long time to come.
02:02What's the significance of the timing of this now?
02:08Well, I think it's obviously important for Ukraine going into the winter.
02:13I mentioned that it's a very difficult time for Kiev.
02:17The Ukrainians, of course, have run out of air defense missiles.
02:21They're having a lot of trouble shooting down the new generation of jet-propelled Russian drones.
02:27For that, they need the American patriots.
02:29We debated this with the Starlink episode, really are dependent upon Elon Musk's satellite technology
02:37to guide their missiles.
02:39They're dependent upon the United States for early warning.
02:43So, talking now, keeping some kind of process going, obviously will continue to lock in that U.S. assistance.
02:49But, on the other hand, the Ukrainians, I think, have always been pretty clear
02:53that these talks are not really going to lead anywhere unless America is prepared to use the stick on the
02:59Kremlin
03:00as well as the carrot.
03:01Now, we know the carrots there, you know, lifting of some sanctions, the deal on the diesel
03:07to help President Trump get through the midterm elections, some business deals down the line.
03:13But is President Trump, once the negotiations really get going, you know,
03:18prepared to put pressure on Moscow and not just on Kiev?
03:22It's much easier for the Americans to pressure Zelensky than it is Putin.
03:27But, recently, the Congress has passed the so-called Lindsey Graham bill, Jamie.
03:32You're familiar, of course, with that, which gives the President a lot of latitude legally
03:37to impose sanctions on the Kremlin so that they also moderate their position.
03:41So, I think there could be a chance for the talks.
03:44But, unless, you know, the carrot is balanced by the stick, and on both sides, again,
03:50they may run into the sand and produce the same disappointing outcome that we've seen
03:55during the last five years of this conflict.
03:57So, let's do a little bit right now.
03:57Let's move this in.
