00:00Reform UK arrived in Birmingham hoping to show it was ready for government.
00:05Instead, its conference was overshadowed by fresh controversy over political donations and renewed questions about Nigel Farage's leadership.
00:15The party still commands substantial support, but its polling lead has disappeared and some voters appear less convinced that Farage
00:24looks like a future Prime Minister.
00:27Reform, they look a lot less assured than perhaps we sort of might have thought, certainly sort of 12 months
00:33ago.
00:33Even though it would have set up until sort of the summer recess, although, of course, at that time, Nigel
00:38Farage was undergoing sort of the investigations for, you know, the money he received, the five million pounds, which he
00:44said, of course, didn't influence him from a sort of crypto billionaire.
00:47Well, hey, I think anybody that gives you five million pounds, they want something in return normally.
00:53But, of course, there's the whole sort of aspect, the sort of the or, if you like, the sort of
00:57reform for a sort of party that would have claimed to be a government in waiting, that they look less
01:02sure-footed.
01:04And by that, I mean, of course, the sort of the missteps and, of course, Farage calling the election, which,
01:07of course, had no effect.
01:09And, of course, he sort of won that sort of handsomely.
01:11But, of course, he was up against a sort of a joke candidate.
01:14And I don't mean that in a sort of dismissive way.
01:17Camp Binface, of course, was a novelty act.
01:19Clacton is a kind of a bit of a strange place.
01:22It's a sort of seaside resort.
01:23And, of course, one of sort of Farage's nemesis, Rupert Lowe, of course, who was previously a reform member, left
01:32in a sort of fit of pique and fell out with Farage.
01:34And, of course, he's not the first person to do that.
01:36He represents great yama.
01:37So there's something about seaside communities that vote for these people who are sort of on the far of the
01:44world.
01:45I shouldn't say far right, but, of course, they're much further right than some.
01:48And, of course, we saw graduations of that.
01:50A year ago, reform was regularly polling above 30 percent, and some projections suggested it could win a Commons majority.
01:59That picture has changed.
02:01Recent national polling has put reform in the low to mid-20s, roughly level with Labour in some surveys and
02:08behind in others.
02:10Farage's own ratings have fallen too, with fewer voters now saying they see him as a prime minister-in-waiting.
02:17The latest setback came during the Birmingham conference, when two senior party officials stepped aside after an undercover investigation alleged
02:26discussions about ways foreign money could benefit the party.
02:30Reform says no illegal donation was accepted, and Farage dismissed parts of the episode as entrapment and loose talk.
02:38There have also been questions about previous donations and gifts connected to the party and its leader.
02:44Even so, reform remains one of Britain's most electorally competitive parties and continues to attract substantial donations.
02:52Immigration, taxation and public dissatisfaction with mainstream politics still give it a strong route back.
03:00People are sort of picking up on these issues, and voters will vote for parties who claim they're going to
03:06change the immigration rules.
03:08Because, of course, that's got a large part of what the base of reform is about.
03:12But, of course, reform is the sort of party that claims it's going to do lots of things.
03:16And, of course, like any political party, the more you're in the spotlight, the more they can see the flaws.
03:21Where's the money going to come from, and how are you going to do it?
03:24So, in summary, I think the sort of reformer sort of a party that will, you know, they are, the
03:29opinion polls are still sort of in early terms.
03:32So we wonder what is going to happen in the sort of fullness of time.
03:36Will it sort of really start to slip down?
03:38I suspect not.
03:39I think it will be a sort of temporary difficulty.
03:41But, you know, do I think the sort of reform will sort of win the sort of next election, the
03:44former majority government?
03:46No, I don't.
03:47I think, but they will remain a key player because the sort of the issues that are created, if you
03:52like, the sort of the environment where reform can flourish are still there.
03:56And, of course, that's up to sort of, if you like, the mainstream political parties to sort of to grasp
04:00and do something about.
04:02And, of course, one of those is small boats and the sort of the anger that sort of some people
04:06have about that.
04:07Now, of course, we have Burnham, of course, who's the sort of the prime minister.
04:11And, of course, he got that not through sort of a popular vote of the electorate, but he got because,
04:16of course, Keir Starmer stepped down for a sort of variety of reasons.
04:19So what do I see, you know, in the next election, whenever that may be, I think on the sort
04:25of the base of probabilities, we'll end up with sort of, if you like, a sort of even split amongst
04:29the main parties, which will mean, of course, it will be into sort of coalition, as we sort of had
04:34in 2010.
04:36And that was the Conservatives and sort of Liberal Democrats.
04:38I think the Liberal Democrats will also sort of be key players in all this.
04:42Perhaps if sort of Labour, I suspect, will not sort of emerge as the sort of the majority party.
04:48So the question is not whether reform has disappeared from contention.
04:53It plainly has not.
04:54The challenge is whether it can stop controversy dominating its message and rebuild confidence beyond its core supporters.
05:02With the next general election still some way off, Nigel Farage does have time to recover ground.
05:08But Labour, the Conservatives and other parties will all be trying to make sure he does not.
