Reform UK is claiming fresh momentum after a series of Conservative defections and strong polling in some surveys. We ask whether that translates into seats, and what it could mean for the next government.
00:00Reform UK is trying to prove it can convert frustration with the big parties into lasting support.
00:07And it's been boosted by recent recruits and a louder national profile for Nigel Farage.
00:13The key question is whether that momentum translates into votes when people look beyond headlines and focus on policies, record and credibility.
00:23I'm not surprised that we're having defections on the fact that people are coming from the Conservative Party in particular to reform.
00:29It's perhaps not that surprising either.
00:32In terms of ideology, I know the traditional one-nation Tories, they see them as something very corrosive.
00:40But undoubtedly, there is a certain zeitgeist, if I might use that word, where reform is picking up on the anxieties, which of course leads to the popularity of the opinion polls.
00:51And of course, the opinion polls are the only barometer we've got of how successful the party is going to be, although we've got the local elections.
00:58So we're probably going to see sort of a number of sort of big hits in terms of the reform party in councils and perhaps taking over.
01:06But of course, what the reform party does lack by a large is that sort of that embedded expertise or sort of the big beasts, as it were.
01:15So the fact that, of course, Robert Jenrick has left the party, that's something of surprise because he has been tied to perhaps a future leader.
01:23He might, if you like, be the sort of godfather, if I might use that expression, who will sort of see some sort of relationship or sort of a merger or perhaps a coalition at best if reform don't get enough seats to win the sort of the general election outright.
01:37Recent polling suggests reform UK support has become more unsettled.
01:43After reaching a high in 2025, several polls show the party slipping back a few points, with one YouGov survey putting reform on 24%, its lowest level since last spring.
01:57Analysts say that when looked at across multiple pollsters, the fall appears to be real rather than simply the result of voters moving into the I don't know category.
02:09Reform remains stronger than a year ago, but its upward momentum now appears to have slowed.
02:16I think people are cynical of politicians.
02:19They see them as, if you like, chances also are people who sort of look after their own sort of interests.
02:24And undoubtedly, if somebody leaves a seat that they like to lose the next election and they sort of become or go to another party, then, yeah, if people do become cynical about that, because, of course, that's not the party that they voted for, they should then be forced, in my opinion, to sort of stand for re-election.
02:40But nonetheless, yeah, we're probably going to see more of this.
02:44We may even see some Labour Party members defecting, because, of course, if they're in danger of losing their seat, either the local or more especially the national elections, then maybe they feel this is the best way to remain in Parliament.
02:56Yeah, we look at the opinion polls, and it seems as if we've reached sort of peak reform, or should I call it peak Farage?
03:03Now, Farage deliberately has run his party, and, of course, he is a sort of limited company, let's not forget that, as a one-man show.
03:12And the difficulty is that you've got to be more than one man.
03:15A party is about sort of the collective, and certainly if you go into government, he's going to have to learn to sort of work with people and to cooperate and take their advice.
03:24We see this across the sort of the pond in America, the Republican Party has become the Trump show for all that that brings with us and the sort of the chaos.
03:33And what we're hoping for, if reform, win the next election, and that's absolutely fine, and that's the sort of democratic process.
03:42But going into government requires you to take difficult decisions and to work as a collective, because Nigel Farage can't be a crossover thing.
03:49So it's got to be, I think he's getting to the stage where he realises it's got to become something bigger, and that is going to be the real challenge, in my opinion.
03:57So, the reform momentum story is real, but the route to power is another question.
04:03Reform will argue defections and polling movements show it's breaking through, while opponents will point to scrutiny of its plans and the electoral maths.
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