00:00And we want to talk a little bit before this thing really gets off the run in here about the
00:06playoff.
00:07Who's going to be in? Who's going to be out?
00:09And Dave, I know you have done some research on kind of the recent CFP history of,
00:17hey, like thinking this thing is just going to be preseason chalk.
00:20Be careful a little bit. Tell us about that.
00:24Four Big Ten, four SEC, Notre Dame, and then your Miami, Texas Tech, and then go pick a group six.
00:30It's simple. Why play the season?
00:32It's not what happened last year.
00:33Seven of the 12 teams last year came from outside the top 15 in the preseason poll.
00:39That's seven of 12.
00:40So it's not as simple as it looks.
00:43So you've got to start looking down the board at some teams that maybe sneak in just because someone's going
00:50to lose me.
00:50Last year, Clemson was top five team.
00:52Penn State was a top five team.
00:54You saw what happened there.
00:55So I've looked at some teams that I think could, from outside the top 15, be in contention for the
01:01playoff.
01:01And they're not necessarily teams that you would look at today and say, yeah, that team's a lock for the
01:05playoff.
01:05No, you've got to go a little bit deeper.
01:07And I look at Penn State.
01:09You know, last year started number two in the country.
01:11You had three wins to start the year.
01:13Lost to Oregon in double overtime.
01:14And then the wheels came off, losing to Northwestern UCLA.
01:17You lose your coach.
01:18Matt Campbell comes in.
01:19He brings in a lot of Iowa State people.
01:21But what I really like about the Nittany Lions, and listen, I don't think the Nittany Lions are a very
01:25good team.
01:26And I think it's going to take some time for Penn State and Matt Campbell to build it.
01:30But I look at them and I say, you start off with three cupcakes in Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo.
01:35You play Wisconsin and Northwestern.
01:37Okay, you're 5-0.
01:38You don't play Ohio State.
01:39You don't play Oregon.
01:41You don't play Indiana.
01:42You've got USC coming to Happy Valley.
01:44And your only questionable road tilts are Michigan and Washington.
01:48Penn State, Kevin, could win 10 games and not even be good.
01:53You're 10-2.
01:54You're firmly in the college football conversation, the playoff conversation.
01:58And you're getting plus 550 for them to get in.
02:02Again, plus 320 to get in.
02:04They're not a top 15 school.
02:06But you don't need to be to get into the playoff.
02:09Look at last year when seven got in.
02:11So at 320 for the price, take a team that could win 10 games by accident is somewhere I like
02:17with the college football playoff.
02:19It is, you know, kind of perfect market manipulation, if you will, right?
02:24Like, if we go over 9.5, we should probably be in.
02:28Maybe there's an outside shot that that doesn't happen.
02:30But there's still enough name power in Penn State where they're going to be a part, you would imagine, of
02:36that conversation.
02:38If we have it, guys, just to kind of show, you know, my college football playoff bracket from last week.
02:43And, look, I didn't – I don't know if this year will be as stark as last year.
02:47I didn't fit this criteria that you kind of laid out perfectly.
02:51But the one sleeper, then, that I know that I really, really do believe in this year is the Tennessee
02:57Volunteers.
02:59I like that Faison Brandon won this job.
03:01You know, again, I know every five-star recruit hasn't hit the ground running.
03:04But I like that he gets the start week one for this team instead of, like, hey, the battle is
03:08still going on.
03:10I think they're defensively being slept on a little bit.
03:13Linebacker room is really, really strong here.
03:15And offensively, what works really nice for Brandon, the running back in Bishop is a potential star, and the offensive
03:23line is loaded.
03:24So the question then becomes, can they manage the schedule?
03:28And I think that's one of the most eye-in-the-beholder things imaginable because the home games are Texas,
03:35Bama, LSU.
03:36So the people who are down there are like, they're not even going to win the home games, much less
03:39trips to South Carolina, A&M, Vanderbilt.
03:43But I'm in on them.
03:44So I'm like, no, no, no.
03:45They can go two and one against the good teams.
03:47And they can win on the road here, Dave.
03:49Tennessee, for me, kind of fit that description that you're laying out for people of, hey, this isn't going to
03:55be paint-by-numbers.
03:58You know, we can start the playoff tomorrow.
04:01Right.
04:01And if you look at four from the SEC and four from the Big Ten, maybe Tennessee sneaks into that
04:07top four because, you know, the SEC is getting them.
04:09They got five last year.
04:10So why couldn't Tennessee be like Ole Miss or be like A&M or Oklahoma and get that fourth or
04:16fifth spot?
04:16We talked earlier about Louisville.
04:18Again, a seven-in-one team last year who lost three games at the end of the year by a
04:23combined seven points.
04:24They beat Miami.
04:25Do they do it again?
04:26If they get off to a hot start by beating Ole Miss, Miami has not won the ACC.
04:32Think about that.
04:332004, they've been in the conference, has never won the ACC.
04:37If they go ahead and drop a game, as we all know Crystal Ball can do, maybe Louisville sneaks into
04:42the ACC title game and wins it.
04:45We talked about their Ohio State backup quarterback, Lincoln Scherholz, to be able to get that.
04:49They have a favorable schedule that misses Miami, misses Clemson, gets SMU at home.
04:55They're plus 550 to make the playoff, currently ranked 24th.
04:58And the last one I'll give you, Kevin, is my third team outside of the top 15 that could play
05:03a part.
05:04You're getting plus 850 on them.
05:07Everybody thinks Texas Tech's going to walk away with the Big 12, and they probably will.
05:12Don't sleep on Houston.
05:13This is a Houston Cougars team.
05:15It's had 10 wins last year.
05:16They returned 12 starters, including quarterback Connor Wegman.
05:20They do have to play at Tech and at Utah.
05:23But even if you split those two games, you're still going to wind up in the Big 12 title game.
05:28If you're in the Big 12 title game, Kevin, you're one win away from the college football playoff.
05:33And if you're holding that plus 850 ticket, you've got a hedge opportunity there.
05:38So I like Houston today, which we'll talk about in a minute.
05:40But at plus 850, you really only got to split the Texas Tech and Utah games to get back to
05:46the Big 12 title game.
