00:00At a time where we just have a breakthrough from President Trump, I was taking a look at one of
00:04your latest pieces and you say this as a quote.
00:07It is now clear that the U.S. is sinking into the quagmire of its war with Iran with no
00:12clear idea of how to get out.
00:16Given where things are at the moment, Alan, how does the U.S. actually get out of this with as
00:22little losses as possible?
00:26Well, Abir, as I wrote in the article, I think the U.S. has to cut its losses.
00:30There hasn't been a breakthrough in any way.
00:33This is just the usual cycle that President Trump is engaged in, escalation or threatening to escalate, then de-escalating.
00:40I think, as your previous guest said, the best we can hope for is Oman and Iran finding some sort
00:47of agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, the future control of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:52Unfortunately, I think, at least in the short term, that will involve at least partial Iranian control.
00:58So that's the best case.
01:01And that's still a long way off.
01:05And Alan, Stuart was also speaking about how the Strait of Hormuz has taken the front and center part of
01:13those negotiations.
01:13And it does feel like over the past couple of months, it feels like the Strait of Hormuz is the
01:18priority for everyone.
01:20Do you think that other components, namely the nuclear component, have taken a back seat?
01:25And how does the U.S. go back into that conversation, which was President Trump's main goal in all of
01:31this?
01:33Well, you're quite right, Abir.
01:35I think, I mean, the goal of the highest possible goal for the Trump administration now is to get the
01:41Strait of Hormuz back to where it was before they attacked Iran, 100 to 130 ships going through a day.
01:46And that's, you know, months and months off, best case.
01:51As for the nuclear issue, that can has been kicked so far down the road, the U.S. will have
01:58taken an off-ramp from this whole mess before we even reach it.
02:01It is highly unlikely, in my opinion, there will ever be any sort of nuclear agreement that puts effective constraints
02:09on Iran's nuclear program.
02:11Iran and the U.S. have zero trust in each other.
02:14They're not negotiating directly.
02:16When we were doing it in the Obama administration, a nuclear deal took five years.
02:21And for two of those years, both sides were earnest and really focused on getting an agreement.
02:28So I think the odds of the Trump administration seeking that is long.
02:35And, Alan, that is from the U.S. side.
02:36From Iran's side, at this point, five months or so into the war, a little bit more, do you think
02:41they're actually less incentivized to come to the table and discuss nuclear?
02:47Oh, they're not yet.
02:47I mean, they'll come to discuss, but they'll discuss it the way they've always done.
02:50Their red lines haven't changed.
02:52They're not going to give up indigenous enrichment of uranium on Iranian soil.
02:56Well, they're willing to suspend their program, which is no big deal because it's going to take years to build
03:01it back up anyway because we blew it up last year in last year's war.
03:05And they're not going to give over all their highly enriched uranium, all 444 kilograms.
03:09So they're willing to talk, but they're not going to change their red lines just because the U.S. has
03:15dropped so much ordinance on them.
03:16And furthermore, the current Iranian government is more hard-line, more anti-U.S., and less likely to trust the
03:24United States.
03:25So a nuclear deal is even harder.
03:29OK, so let's assume the talks that President Trump had touted do go on today, that there is progress when
03:35it comes to those talks,
03:37although we've been here multiple times before over the past few months.
03:41What are the potential spoilers this time around?
03:44Is it the proxies in the region, Israel, something else?
03:50Well, I don't know what President Trump's talking about when he says talks will go on.
03:54Direct talks have never happened.
03:56If he's saying that messages will continue to be passed between the U.S. side and the Iranian side by
04:02the Bataaris or the Pakistanis or the Egyptians or the Turks or whomever,
04:06that could well be the case, but that's been ongoing.
04:09So like so much of what President Trump has said about this war, you really have to take it with
04:14a grain of salt.
04:15So, again, if there's more clarity as to what sort of talks are going to resume tomorrow, maybe I'll change
04:21my opinion.
04:22But I think here again, I think the president's just trying to jawbone the market.
04:29And just finally, Alan, how sustainable is a diplomatic resolute or the track of diplomacy when Israel has repeatedly made
04:38it clear that it reserves the right to respond militarily if the nuclear component in Iran is not answered for?
04:47Well, I think, I mean, again, the U.S. has not been willing to and is perhaps unable to engage
04:52in serious and sustained diplomacy with Iran.
04:54It's outsourced it to various countries like Oman right now regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
04:59But you're quite right.
05:00Israel is still keenly focused on eliminating the Islamic Republic of Iran.
05:05Prime Minister Netanyahu is heading for an election soon.
05:08And if he's forced to stand down on Iran and on Hezbollah and Lebanon, he's going to lose the election,
05:15he feels.
05:15And that means possibly jail time.
05:17So Israel is chomping at the bit to resume hostilities against Iran and is looking for an excuse to do
05:24so.
05:24So you're quite right in flagging that, Abir.
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