00:00In tonight's forecast feed, we're digging into Hawaii because as the recovery continues from
00:05former hurricane, well actually it is still Hurricane Lala, but it brought huge impacts
00:09to the big island over the weekend and now it's still a pretty menacing storm. But northwest
00:13of the primary Hawaiian islands, we're getting ready for another significant impact. So after
00:19three to three and a half feet of rain in some areas and a significant recovery process that
00:25has begun, we're getting ready for this next round of trouble. And our next impact is going
00:32to come from this tropical rain storm that's still organizing, or it has organized, I should
00:36say, into a tropical rain storm. But it will mature and strengthen into a tropical depression,
00:41tropical storm, and probably even a hurricane as it makes a run near, maybe into, but maybe
00:49a little more likely, just barely south of the big island again. And there's Lala, still
00:53a very nasty storm that is hooking it northwest through some of the very small fragments of
00:59land and reefs way west of the primary Hawaiian islands. Quick look at the latest here on Lala,
01:05and I'm going to move myself out of the way just so you can get a little more perspective
01:08on the bulk of Hawaii's population down this way. There are some little islands though out
01:12this way that are still Hawaiian real estate, and it continues to move in a pretty abrupt northwest
01:18and eventually northward curve. It's a strong, strong storm. It's a major hurricane right
01:23now. And you can see as Lala continues to move north, you might expect it to weaken quickly
01:29over cooler water. But just for perspective, you know, Hawaii is so far south that if we
01:36were to trace the latitude of Los Angeles, that's way, way, way up here. It won't be that far north
01:43until Sunday. That's L.A., that's Southern California's latitude. So again, I know it looks
01:47like it's like racing into the Arctic. It's still way south into subtropical regions, and it has days
01:54to go before it gets as far north as San Diego or Los Angeles. All right, so here we go
01:59back to this
02:00graphic, and we're going to shift our focus to this strengthening tropical rainstorm. And here is
02:06our eye path for this. We are ahead of the National Weather Service with an eye path for this.
02:12They have their cone of uncertainty that they roll out. They'll probably roll one out eventually for
02:16this one. But we want you to know about the impacts and the risks. So we're ahead of them with
02:21this.
02:21And we're expecting this to be a Category 1 hurricane south of the Big Island, right in the middle of
02:27the
02:28weekend, almost exactly, maybe about seven and a half days after Lala made its push. And that was
02:36actually within 30 miles of the Big Island. I'm going to head away from the AccuWeather graphics just for a
02:43moment. I want to take you into the model world and look at some steering influences here. So one thing
02:48that
02:48catches my eye, and I'm going to just, instead of plotting the H, I'm going to kind of just highlight
02:54the
02:54steering flow. We're going up about 20,000 feet up into the atmosphere, and there is a zone of high
03:01pressure, here it is,
03:03right over the area north of the Big Island. And that puts us in a position where the steering influences
03:10are going to be enhanced a bit. You can see there is some mid-level flow actually north to south
03:15that
03:15might keep this a little farther south for a time, but ultimately to be drawn west. And as we look
03:21at
03:21this playing out here, you can see the European model takes it a little bit south of the Big Island,
03:27but not by a huge margin. The European actually takes it into Hawaii, so that remains a possibility.
03:33And again, as we look at the steering influences, there's a slightly different location for that ridge,
03:39a little bit farther north, displaced to the north with the European, and that opens the door a little
03:43bit more for that. Here's the precipitable water. If you took all the moisture in the atmosphere from
03:47the surface of the ocean all the way up to the top of the troposphere and wring it out, how
03:51much rain
03:52would you get? And what I wanted to show you is that there's, remember when Lala came in, there was
03:57very dry air on the north and northwest side of Lala's path. Lala's deposited some extra moisture and
04:04the flow around the southern part of the circulation has allowed this kind of draw of moisture northward
04:12to continue to hold that in place. In fact, you can even see a tracer of that that's been deposited
04:17north of Hawaii. And now we have this new developing system that flows not dictating its environment
04:23quite yet all that much because it's still early in its organization, but there's more moisture in
04:29place ahead of this next storm as opposed to what Lala faced. There is some wind shear out there.
04:34There's a ribbon of wind shear. Now, again, I'm going to highlight Hawaii because I know that this map
04:39is a little chaotic. Here's Hawaii. Here's Oregon, California, Washington, there's Seattle. And I wanted
04:48to point out that there is moderate wind shear north of the location of this developing storm,
04:53this tropical rainstorm. But it looks like it may, the storm may stay just far enough south that it
04:59probably won't be significantly impeded by that wind shear. So let's look at the surface forecast here.
05:04Here is the GFS staying south of the Big Island, staying south of it. Here is the European. The
05:12European brings it right into the Big Island, right into the Big Island on Sunday. Here's the Canadian.
05:17Canadian stays south. Here's the UK Met south by a bigger margin. Here's the JMA, which is the Japanese
05:25model. And that brings it close to the Big Island, but just barely south. So the biggest factor I think
05:33might be the strength of and the placement of this ridge of high pressure up to the north as a
05:37big driver
05:38in the overall steering flow. Another look at the GFS keeping it to the south with the European much
05:46greater impacts and tremendous rainfall on the east side of the islands and the Big Island. So here's the GFS
05:53and you can see some rain, two, three, four inches. But to no surprise, the European, it dumps some areas
06:00into that bright blue, which would be 14 plus inches. All right, I'm going to end this by looking
06:04at our forecast. I wanted to share some of that with you. So we're looking at this point on the
06:10east slopes of the Big Island at another 8 to 12 inches of rain with an active weather local storm
06:15max of 24 inches. That's two feet of rain on the heels of a three to three and a half
06:20foot rainfall event.
06:23At this point, we're forecasting 40 to 60 mile per hour gusts. If it does come north, if that high
06:29to the
06:29north is a little farther north, maybe a little weaker. And if the European is correct, we're
06:33going to have to increase that. But that remains to be seen. And we are going to go with high
06:36risk
06:36to lives and property with this one because there's a lot of debris out there already. People are in a
06:41compromised state. By the way, as we close this out beyond the rainstorm, two other areas to watch
06:46in the east Pacific.
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